Hey James interesting thread and very generous of you, any chance you could enlighten us numpties on how you make your calls , any help would be much appreciated, I also started a thread 10% low low risk returns in 'stocks' forum would love your views /help over on the thread in one of your bored moments . Cheers
Just seen this. Reco's without analysis is useless to say the least as it gives opinions without reasons(sorry James). I will safely assume that the person calling them is doing analysis but has forgotten to post their findings so i'll give you an example of the basics (and my opinion). It would also be great if the person giving opinions could also give more analysis as to their findings.
Anyway, I've posted an example which has taken typically 20 minutes to quickly go over with some examples.
mrw.l - Morrisons
Current price - 272
10 years of data shows that:
Lows to 147 in March 2003 gives a 46% downside risk
12 month (recent) lows - Feb 13 of 248 gives downside risk of 8.5%
Highs to 337 in May 2007 gives an upside (potential) gain of 24%
12 month (recent) highs - March 2013 give an upside (potential) gain of 4%
Market index tracking:
Market lows in Oct 08 of 211 - downside risk of 22%. Market index has risen subsequently recently by over 80% since its lows in 2009. Over 12 months the index (ftse100) has risen by 7% (year comparison)
MA 20,50,100 all up and looking strong on a recent upward trend. Only recently confirmed (within 1 month) but following on from a downward trend from around Oct 2012 and then also continuing back from that on a downward trend from March 2012. This upward trend(recent) could be a repeat of Sept 12 through to Oct 12 whereby it flagged up as false. If this repeats Morrisons will continue tracking downward. If not then will continue up but have already missed a 10% move since Feb 13.
Concerned with possible false signal on upward trend. Only confirmed recently and too soon but yet have already missed a 10% move. Also have overall concerns with the index it sits in and the current and strong rise seen of late.
Yearly revenues increasing by around 8% (average) over last 5 years
Net income is also on par with this and earnings per share has also increased year on year.
Book value is 216.
Based on book value it is overpriced but in general we could ignor this if everything else stacked up.
Yearly revenues are looking great so in principle would be a good long term buy (years as appose to months).
Based on the simple equations above I wouldn't invest any more of my time on this one but instead continue to look for something with more meat on the bone. Ideally more upside gain and less downside risk or put simply the above but in reverse.
I would look for more potential gains than potential losses.
NB: Naturally as we all (should) know, markets can go up and down and the above is certainly not an endorsement to either trade or not. It is just my interpretation on how I do basic calculations to interpret whether or not a certain stock is worth looking further in to.
I won't be in on this one. (short or long)
Hope this gives some basic ideas to which you can expand on as much as you like (or debate either now or later). Of course, if it rises, it still represents a poor trade for a long. If you see something that I have missed then please feel free to correct me or add further.