Pork Bellies

bgold

Established member
532 5
Yesterday, I took a small short in May bellies (PB K4) upon breach of 106.10, filled at 106.05. While Bellies is still in uptrend, i took trade almost excl based on Elliott wave count (see chart) which should sees a retracement to ~101.20 or possibly 96 area.
I do see, however, some interesting indicator reversals, on daily chart.
Fe DaveT's synchronic MACD and Stochastics!

Short at 106.05 with stop at 109.40 target 96. Probably tighten tomorrows stop for a break-even trade.

Remembetr, Meats are treacherous and the locals have knives sharper than butchers taking out speculators stops!
 

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FetteredChinos

Veteren member
3,897 40
short Pork Scratchings as well Blair?

Bgold - nice analysis. Do you really use all those indicators, or do they just act as confirmation ? what if get conflicting ones??

or maybe they are just there to brighten your day?

:)

FC
 

Rognvald

Established member
916 15
:cheesy:
Of course its a hippo - not a pork
Seriously bg - bg
 

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BBB

Experienced member
1,071 3
lol -

Nice post. Does look a bit weak to me too.

You're a brave guy trading bellies for sure!
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
FC, I do use these and more but I focus on:
1. trend unless Elliott wave count and Fibonacci measured reversal potential, confirmed by
2. a Jap Candle pattern, (ideally 3day reversal), confirmed by
3. at least 3 indicators, fe divergence of RSI

What if they conflict? That's the weakness of method, as judgement starts playing a role.

In case of bellies, I have had thusfar 2 stopped-out trades & promised myself never to touch Meats again (other than on plate) but can't resist. There are some nice seasonal trends in Meats and good spread trades worth researching.

However, as BBB says, one needs to to have some loose wires to trade Bellies based on TA.

Rest assured, I didn't risk the house on this trade. In fact from a seasonal perspective there may be a better opportunity to short Bellies by end April (see graph). For now I hope this trade will help cover my drinks bill at the next London Traders' meeting. :)

For inspiration:
http://www.cookitsimply.com/pork/pork-belly/
http://www.foodno1.com/efoodno1/men...d-recipe-ch-pork/html/efood-tt-20000128b.html
 

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BBB

Experienced member
1,071 3
What about trading the bellies as a spread? Lower your risk and increase your size - basing your trade on a longer term seasonal differential that occurs in meats. Try April-October. That way the crims wont be able to take your stops out - cos you wont have any!!! (hehehehe - you're so cunning BBB)
 

FetteredChinos

Veteren member
3,897 40
thank bgold..good to see you are using the indicators as confirmation and not trading off them alone.

respect where respect is due.. keep us updated on how u get on.

ever tempted to let the future run 'til expiry?? do you have a special warehouse for all this meat?... reminds me a bit of my patio.....

FC
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
FC, Great idea to take delivery. How about a big T2W BBQ. For now I have a little problem!!! I AM SHORT and will have to deliver all those greasy bellies!

BBB, do agree on spreading. How about Hogs vs Bellies. Hogs will be seasonally strong vs Bellies by end of April. See chart

Check out www.MRCI.com for more ideas!

PS. Stop lowered to 108.1
 

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BBB

Experienced member
1,071 3
Could be good. I'm just starting to get into spreading futures. I've got some experience with options, but that was many years ago.....

I've ordered the Courtney Smith book to gem up on them.
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 748
Bgold.
I may have twigged ! Can you spread trade the likes of corn versus wheat or oil versus lumber ( long one but short the other) ?
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
BBB, I have also recently started. Currently reading Courtney Cox and several others. Like Joe Ross, trading spreads and seasonals. Let's post a few ideas for broader review on T2W. i will after easter

Neil, you can spread anything, but note exchanges have recoginised spreads which demand lower and very low margin (fe calendar spreads). Widely played are spreads like C/W. Fe A seasonal trade is buy CZ4/sell KWZ4 in May-June.

Fc, it ain't no wild boar!!
 

BBB

Experienced member
1,071 3
Neil - yes you can. Thats the point of spreads - to take advantage of seasonality of products. Time of the year for meats and grains. Yield curves for Bonds such as the TUT (Ten year Under Two year notes) to profit from the yield curve, TED - Tbonds vs Euro Dollars. etc.

There isn't much written about spreads though. It's all need-to-know or we kill ya you filthy c*ck-a-roach stuff (sorry, I watched Scarface again last night)
 

BBB

Experienced member
1,071 3
Whats the Joe Ross book like? What does it add that Smith doesn't include?
 
 
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