Please advise - Coin Collector

[Directional]

I noticed that the coincollector system is a reversal system? I'm surprised they use limits for an approach like this to be honest, especially since they admit that you will miss some fills - with an always in the market system, if you miss a fill on a reversal then not only do you end up with a losing trade on what should have been a winner, but you miss the reversed position which would have been a winner too!

using limits in backtest is one way you can inadvertently curve fit a systems performance results - doesnt matter if the backtest looks good if you dont get actually get those results in real life.

I think, unfortunately, your actual equity curve is showing what their backtest equity curve would look like if they could accurately account for missed fills through using limit orders.

And as JonnyT pointed out, if a group of say 100 users are each placing ten contracts for limit orders at the same price, thats going to be 1000 lots in addition to normal depth all parked there waiting for a fill! a whole lot of extra support for price to chew through if it fact price is inclined to go your way.

have you asked them if they have a version that can use market orders? why not also ask them for a backtest report that includes 2 ticks slippage and commissions factored in?

 

[Markus_H]

In reality you can expect about 20% of those orders to be filled and 80% not to be filled.

rogerha,

Please double-check your numbers:

From Monday, Sept 5th to Wednesday, October 20th CoinCollector 40min placed 140 limit orders. If you look at the prices you’ll see that the market went through the limit price 117 times, i.e. the maximum amount of orders that you could have missed was 23 (=16.4%).

Each minute approx. 1,000 orders are filled in the e-mini S&P, and most likely you received more than 117 fills.
If you received 3 more fills then the maximum amount of orders missed would be 20 (=14.3%)

Same applies to the 60 min version:
CoinCollector 60min placed 73 orders and 58 times the market went through the limit price. So you missed a maximum of 25 fills (=20.5%).

Therefore I still believe that using limit orders is a better choice than experiencing $25 slippage per trade when using market orders.

Hope that helps,

Markus

 

[rogerha]

Well not really Markus, that is a total of 34 trading days that you have quoted. (Admittedly I haven't included any holidays that may have appeared in that timeframe).

The System places its first order 30 minutes after the market opens and then every hour after that until 14:30 (from memory and using CC60).Surely thats a minimum of 5 orders a day ? So surely for 34 trading days that would be a total of 170 orders ? I just re-read the e-book, and indeed this appears to be the case.

Now taking your assumption that I got filled all of the times the price touched or breached the limit order, ie. 58 times, I make that around 34% of those orders filled.

Also if you assume that 10% of the 58 orders just touched or breached the limit and didn't receive a fill, then you can reduce the 58 trades by 5 trades (be generous), which makes it 53 orders filled. Which makes it 31%.

I also see that the E-book has changed in the latest version, apparently you no longer convert Limits to Market orders, so obviously the system has changed slightly from when I originally purchased it. But I still have the original documentation to confirm my case.

So I have re-checked my numbers Markus, and at the end of the day, at the end of August my account was around $9.5k for this particular system. I stopped trading it last Thursday at $5.8k, thats a little more that the maximum drawdown in your backtests.

rogerha,

Please double-check your numbers:

From Monday, Sept 5th to Wednesday, October 20th CoinCollector 40min placed 140 limit orders. If you look at the prices you’ll see that the market went through the limit price 117 times, i.e. the maximum amount of orders that you could have missed was 23 (=16.4%).

Each minute approx. 1,000 orders are filled in the e-mini S&P, and most likely you received more than 117 fills.
If you received 3 more fills then the maximum amount of orders missed would be 20 (=14.3%)

Same applies to the 60 min version:
CoinCollector 60min placed 73 orders and 58 times the market went through the limit price. So you missed a maximum of 25 fills (=20.5%).

Therefore I still believe that using limit orders is a better choice than experiencing $25 slippage per trade when using market orders.

Hope that helps,

Markus

 

[JonnyT]

It simply fades the hourly bars from what I have read on other forums.

JonnyT

 

[Markus_H]

The System places its first order 30 minutes after the market opens and then every hour after that until 14:30 (from memory and using CC60).Surely thats a minimum of 5 orders a day ? So surely for 34 trading days that would be a total of 170 orders ? I just re-read the e-book, and indeed this appears to be the case.

Nope. We receive a trading signal every hour, but this doesn't mean that you should get filled every hour.

Example:
The e-mini S&P is trading at 1185.
At 9:30am we place an order to sell @ 1190 limit, but prices continue to move lower and never touch 1190.
At 10:30am we move the order to sell @ 1187 limit, but again prices continue to move lower and never trade up to our specified entry level.
At 11:30am we move the order to sell @ 1185 limit, and finally prices are moving back up to 1186 and our sell order gets filled.

We tried to open a position three times, and the third attempt was successful. It's normal that you have multiple attempts before you finally get filled.

In your previous post you were referring to "missing fills".
Here's an example of a "missed fill":
Let's say you placed a sell order at 1185 limit, and prices moved up to 1185 and then reversed and continue to trade lower. Since limit orders are handled according to the FIFO principle and there weren't enough buy orders, you might not have been filled. THAT'S a missed fill.

If you have any questions regarding the trading system or the rules mentioned in the eBook, please contact me by phone or email. It's important that you understand and follow the rules as intended, otherwise you might indeed trade a completely different system.

Markus

PS:

I also see that the E-book has changed in the latest version, apparently you no longer convert Limits to Market orders, so obviously the system has changed slightly from when I originally purchased it.

Yes. We told you that we will update the system as needed, and you'll receive all updates at no cost.

 

[JonnyT]

There is a simple solution to this.

Put your orders 1 tick prior to what Coin Collector advocates. That way you will be filled and jump the queue.

JonnyT

 

[leoneill]

I quit

Well today I stopped the system as well.
I started out with $7500,-, with everything running automatically on Strategy Runner Pro.
Ending balance: $ 3400,-
I threw in the towel.

Greetings, Leoneill.

 

[rogerha]

Nope. We receive a trading signal every hour, but this doesn't mean that you should get filled every hour.

Example:
The e-mini S&P is trading at 1185.
At 9:30am we place an order to sell @ 1190 limit, but prices continue to move lower and never touch 1190.
At 10:30am we move the order to sell @ 1187 limit, but again prices continue to move lower and never trade up to our specified entry level.
At 11:30am we move the order to sell @ 1185 limit, and finally prices are moving back up to 1186 and our sell order gets filled.

We tried to open a position three times, and the third attempt was successful. It's normal that you have multiple attempts before you finally get filled.

In your previous post you were referring to "missing fills".
Here's an example of a "missed fill":
Let's say you placed a sell order at 1185 limit, and prices moved up to 1185 and then reversed and continue to trade lower. Since limit orders are handled according to the FIFO principle and there weren't enough buy orders, you might not have been filled. THAT'S a missed fill.

If you have any questions regarding the trading system or the rules mentioned in the eBook, please contact me by phone or email. It's important that you understand and follow the rules as intended, otherwise you might indeed trade a completely different system.

Markus

PS:Yes. We told you that we will update the system as needed, and you'll receive all updates at no cost.

Markus, I have not questioned your professionalism, you guys have been supportive. However, you are mis-guided in your statement. Where is it in my post I suggest I expect a fill every hour ?

In fact you confirm perhaps that we have a mututal mis-understanding. In short, the system trades hourly, that is your trading signal, from what I have read it is purely time and one other parameter. On the basis of your 'trading signal' you place a limit order. Now, if you want to argue whether or not the second 'signal' after the first fill is a new signal or not is up to you. But the truth is a new Limit order is placed because the first one wasn't filled. In my mind, the first limit order is not filled, it is then cancelled and a new limit order is placed, based on a new 'Trading Signal', this is a new trade. (?) I can tell you now that Strategy Runner cancels the unfilled trade, and submits a new one, do you consider this a 'Trading Signal', or an original order not filled ?

You talk of $25 slippage with a marker order. Good god, sometimes you have to wait for a 15 Point trend to fade before you get a 1.5 point fade just watching limit orders chasing the market in the trending direction.

Perhaps my mis-understanding is the 'Trading Signal', 'Limit Order' and 'Fill' scenario, and I apologise if I have confused this thread. But to me if you send a Limit, and it is not filled before you place another Limit chasing the market, then simply you have not been filled. I can't find other words to explain not haveing your order 'Filled'.

But I have still lost a lot more money than your maximum drawdown. I have also e-mailed you in the past, so I have covered that eventuality. I have a record of every trade with Strategy Runner, I sent you a months worth not so long back. I am not trying to be difficult, merely telling it like it is. I can make every word (inlcuding my past e-mails to Rockwell Trading) available to this forum.

Incidentally I don't 'follow the rules', I bought an automated system with SR, I plugged it in, and never touched it for nearly 3 months, so what is wrong here, me not touching it, or the SR Strategy itself ?

As an aside, I have found Rockwell to be professional in their approach, everybody takes these things on with their own level of commitment and risk. I also think that the last few weeks may have been unusual in the 'trendiness' of the market so consistantly. But at the end of the day, my experiences are first hand and at my expense, and I can only tell it like I see it.

Markus, it is nothing personal, merely observations.

 

[wally_]

Andy's Open Bar System

Is anyone trading this system? If so, how do you explain the huge difference between the results reported on the developers website and those reported on the C2 website for September?

The difference is ca $600 (by developers) vs ca $1000 (according to C2) for one contract. That's really huge. Also, C2 reported more trades than the developers (16 vs 11). Funnily enough, there were 2 trades on 9/1/05 even though the developers website maintains that the system takes only 1 trade a day...

Any comments? Are the fills as bad as for the other systems?

 

[badtrader]

Well today I stopped the system as well.
I started out with $7500,-, with everything running automatically on Strategy Runner Pro.
Ending balance: $ 3400,-
I threw in the towel.

Greetings, Leoneill.

Take leoneill advice, the method don't work.

 

[sewnew]

I have used the system for a number of months and I have become frustrated. I found my results to be different than the website. I am new to futures and I thought this would be a good way to learn. However, it has turned out to be expensive. Has anyone found any system that works?

 

[Directional]

become a system vendor. seems like they have a very profitable system of selling systems that dont work to people who believe that they might.

 

[Anonymous]

Has anyone found any system that works?

There are many (whatever you call it, "system"?) that works, look at thread #112 for example. On the top left, starts with a letter A.

 

[rob_klo]

Take leoneill advice, the method don't work.

Yeah, right about the time. Too bad the dummies ignored Wally's warning about this system posted here months ago. Is it not funny to see now so many of the 'hindsight experts' to pile on with sage but now useless advice? Actually it's more like pathetic. Where were you people months ago? The system was as flawed then as it is now.

BTW, Wally you also mentioned that you would be offering your systems to the public. Have you started doing this yet?

 

[rob_klo]

It simply fades the hourly bars from what I have read on other forums.

JonnyT

Hmm..., so you did not feel like revealing the details of Chris Koblewka's wonder system, but you do not feel uncomfortable revealing the details of the Rockwell system? Kinda inconsistent, to say the least... And you probably would not like if someone revealed your system details, particularly if they were copyrighted, right?

 

[Directional]

Where were you people months ago? The system was as flawed then as it is now.

and where exactly were you months ago when these people were asking for help?

 

[Juny]

New Trading System

Just received from Fleet Street publications a new system by Andy X trading on the Forex market using his "Insider Signal" to trade. Cost nearly £2000 with 30days guarantee. He's 25 and now retired. Has anybody any comments regarding this system?

 

[rob_klo]

and where exactly were you months ago when these people were asking for help?

No one asked you for any help, no one asked Wally for any help and since no one asked me for any help either I have not volunteered my opinion. Wally, I guess, was compelled to offer his advice, being an experienced trader that he is. (I know him from some other board and I have learned to pay attention to his posts.) Now, in retrospect, perhaps I should have supported his opinion, but would this really work? I doubt it. Not to mention that I do not have a cheerleading mentality as some posters here.

So let us see what really happened after Wally's timely and correct advice. What ensued was more like slamming of Wally's arguments and more cheerleading for Rockwell's cause. Did these people really sound like crying for help? Or did they rather sound like they did not appreciate that someone was raining on their parade? It's obvious that it was the latter.

No one could help them because they did not want any help. I hope they learned the lesson that falling for hype does not pay off.

 

[rob_klo]

Any comments? Are the fills as bad as for the other systems?

Wow, what an overwhelming response... :cheesy: Traders helping traders. That's what I really like about this board. I bet that you will get a reply to your question right after this system starts going south.

BTW, do you really think that this system is any better than the CC?

Thanks...

 

[J Mattson]

No one asked you for any help, no one asked Wally for any help and since no one asked me for any help either I have not volunteered my opinion. Wally, I guess, was compelled to offer his advice, being an experienced trader that he is. (I know him from some other board and I have learned to pay attention to his posts.) Now, in retrospect, perhaps I should have supported his opinion, but would this really work? I doubt it. Not to mention that I do not have a cheerleading mentality as some posters here.

So let us see what really happened after Wally's timely and correct advice. What ensued was more like slamming of Wally's arguments and more cheerleading for Rockwell's cause. Did these people really sound like crying for help? Or did they rather sound like they did not appreciate that someone was raining on their parade? It's obvious that it was the latter.

No one could help them because they did not want any help. I hope they learned the lesson that falling for hype does not pay off.

Rob,
I was asking for information concerning CC quite some time ago. See Thread #45 and on.
All I received was a little "cheerleading for Rockwell"s cause". It only took 3 weeks of steady losing to learn an expensive lesson.