pflantzdog27's blog

May 25, 2009
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0
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shmish.com
#1
Anything wrong with my logic?

I have been trading with a demo account nearly 5 months. I was pink when I got in, feel a bit more comfortable now.
This is my take on the current market:
On April 21st, the US released data showing that the economy had contracted at -6.1 % q/q. This was the same day that the euro began it's strong bullish trend from 1.29 to where it is now at 1.40 against the dollar.

It seems as though the US advanced GDP release, marked the beginning of a recovery. Higher yielding currencies like the AUD, real, NZD, and rand show that the market has a strong appetite for risk. This appetite favors the selling of USD and thus the depreciation of the dollar. Because oil exports sell oil in dollars, weaker dollar value will create weaker revenue, thus oil prices go up. These increased oil prices have helped commodity currencies like the CAD advance to it's highest level in months.

Right now, it seems that even negative statistics are being presented as showing signs of recovery. I can only imagine that at some point, a string of statistics will dampen economists hopes of recovery and we will see the markets loose most of the previous 2 months gains.

Long term, I like the EUR/USD pair short and the USD/JPY long.

As for day trading. I'm kinda at a loss. North Korea launched a rocket today, figure that should play for JPY weakness. Price of crude is down a bit, german Ifo fell short of predictions, would bet on the dollar recovering a bit today. Who knows though, i don't feel like I've been in step with the market of late.
Gonna be a light volume day on the market as US and Britain have holiday.