Pattern Search Software

[Pat494]

Pat, are you still using APS Automatic Pattern Search? What do you think of this program? Have you had any luck with it?

John

Hi,
yes some interesting results on the indices EOD since Nov 2006
Nasdaq - down
Nikkei - up
CAC - up
S&P - up
FTSE - up
DAX - down
Dow - up
overall - up
These figures use stops eg 100 points for the Dow
Hope this is of interest
Pat

 

[johnpaterson]

Hi,
yes some interesting results on the indices EOD since Nov 2006
Nasdaq - down
Nikkei - up
CAC - up
S&P - up
FTSE - up
DAX - down
Dow - up
overall - up
These figures use stops eg 100 points for the Dow
Hope this is of interest
Pat

Pat thanks a lot. This is interesting indeed. Could you be so kind to tell me more about the APS criteria you used?

If your results are correct then APS sounds like a good program. But again it ought to depend on how it is used. I had a chat with an e-mini day trader not too long ago and he loves this program.

Did you try different stops for the Nasdaq and DAX indices?

John

 

[Pat494]

I used traiing stops for all indices.
Dax 75 points
Nasdaq 50 points
Both are only just in the red
There are drawdowns on all at one time or another but generally I recommend APS

 

[johnpaterson]

I used traiing stops for all indices.
Dax 75 points
Nasdaq 50 points
Both are only just in the red
There are drawdowns on all at one time or another but generally I recommend APS

Thanks Pat, I hope you're making money during this rally in equities. It's amzing, isn't it? Dow is defiant, my gosh..

I got a license of APS last week and guess what? The program paid for itself in two days! Just amazing!

Signals: 04/30 LONG MET @ 65.70 Closed today @ 66.70 500 shares, $500 gross
05/01 LONG AV @ 12.95 Closed today @ 13.35 1000 shares , $400 gross
05/01 SHORT LXK @ 54.60 Closed today @ 53.90 500 shares, $350 gross

I must admit I was a bit nervous and did not wait for full profit target. LXK still falling at this time, MET is rallying and AV is also up.

Thanks, all the best

John

 

[Byculla]

John,
Did they ever tell you why the denied you first time round. The site does not give full info. on their terms and conditions of their demo. download or purchase. When details are given it is not necessarly in the area it should be. I downloaded their demo. Nowhere on their site does it state that there is a time limit on it. After all it is not a fully functional software. While still trying to understand it it dies on me. Won't let me redownload, and customer service not too helpful.

I don't see any info. in their purchase section on the terms and condition of purchase or as I have seen mentioned here lease. Any info. on this?

APS may be the best software on earth but I smell a degree of arrogance from the company

 

[jacinto]

hi,

I downloaded a demo version for Autochartist (www.autochartist.com) chart patterns, not candlestick patterns.

to be honest, havent used it so cant say anything, but do have a look, could be of interest.

j

edit: just had a quick look. curiosity..lol. it looks interesting actually.

 

[johnpaterson]

Byculla,

This company has an excellent customer service. They even answer emails during weekends.

My problem was that I tried to pay for the program while on a business trip. They probably checked my IP and I was rejected (the country was Turkey). Where are you located? Maybe that's the problem.

Anyway, read carefully their demo page: "There is a time limit on the number of executions (about 20 depending on use and the demo cannot run more than 24 hours straight). " Most demo programs I have downloaded have some type of limit on them.

I wonder as to why you can't redownload. This is a pretty straight forward download. Did you register to get the link to purchase page?

I got the program and it works exactly the way it is advertised. Be cautious though, past performance does not guarantee future performance. Nee to use some discretion and other indicators.

John

John,
Did they ever tell you why the denied you first time round. The site does not give full info. on their terms and conditions of their demo. download or purchase. When details are given it is not necessarly in the area it should be. I downloaded their demo. Nowhere on their site does it state that there is a time limit on it. After all it is not a fully functional software. While still trying to understand it it dies on me. Won't let me redownload, and customer service not too helpful.

I don't see any info. in their purchase section on the terms and condition of purchase or as I have seen mentioned here lease. Any info. on this?

APS may be the best software on earth but I smell a degree of arrogance from the company

 

[Byculla]

John,
I missed the time/usage limitations posted on the demo page. I guess that happens if one doesn't read all the blup. All the same I deleated the demo and tried to re-download. The download is successful but it will not allow me to open the prog. There is residue left somewhere that tells the prog of the previous download. Tried to get customer service to permit a futher download but no satisfaction.

To APS users: What is the range of the expectancy of the signals? What range of expectancy have you obtained your systems. Has anyone done the calc.?

 

[alexander]

John,
I missed the time/usage limitations posted on the demo page. I guess that happens if one doesn't read all the blup. All the same I deleated the demo and tried to re-download. The download is successful but it will not allow me to open the prog. There is residue left somewhere that tells the prog of the previous download. Tried to get customer service to permit a futher download but no satisfaction.

To APS users: What is the range of the expectancy of the signals? What range of expectancy have you obtained your systems. Has anyone done the calc.?

Byculla,

I would guess that the limitations are stored in the OS registry. You could try the demo on another pc then.

By the way, what do you mean by expectancy? Is that the average count of bars from signal to closing of position?

Alex

 

[Byculla]

Expectancy is a method for measuring the resultant of a system.
Expectancy reflects the amount on average that you will make for each
dollar you risk. If the strategy's expectancy is negative number, it
represents the amount you would lose for every dollar risked. Van Tharp gives a detailed explanation for its calculation . Could be looked at as a standardised way to view/measure systems and signals.

 

[alexander]

Byculla,

Keep in mind that most traders do not pay attention to fancy terminology and buzzwords some authors invent. The expectancy you refer results for random variables nobody can predict it in advance. Only the value through historical testing is available and it is of no use because traders know that the results from actual trading exhibit wide variations from results obtained from historical testing.

When you refer to an "average made for every dollar risked" this immediately assumes a time period over which the average is calculated. Change the time period and you get another value, just like in the case of moving averages.

IMO there is not such thing as "standardized ways to view/measure systems and signals". Measures depend on the final objectives. I may be wrong on this one but "expectancy" does not sound like a widely accepted and used term by traders. Actually, the Sharpe ratio is a much better measure of the mean excess return per unit of risk than the expectancy you mentioned.

Alex

Expectancy is a method for measuring the resultant of a system. Expectancy reflects the amount on average that you will make for each
dollar you risk. If the strategy's expectancy is negative number, it
represents the amount you would lose for every dollar risked. Van Tharp gives a detailed explanation for its calculation . Could be looked at as a standardised way to view/measure systems and signals.

 

[ronblack]

Van Tharp gives a detailed explanation for its calculation . Could be looked at as a standardised way to view/measure systems and signals.

Van Tharp wrote a book where he promotes the idea of using ATR as a measure of risk and for calculating the number of shares to trade. Utter non-sense I must say. Just look at ATR values for a few S&P stocks. For example, for MSFT the value is about 1.7%. Now let's say you want to risk USD 10,000 in a trade and your account equity is USD 1M, which makes your risk 1% of that, pretty reasonable in that respect. You will purchase 10,000/1.7 or about 5,800 shares of MSFT. Now, where is your stop?

If your stop is at 1.7% of the current last price of USD 30.60, you can tolerate a drop of only 0.52 cents. Hey, at these levels of volatility this can even happen today if the market turns around.

If your stop is like 1 point, then your actual risk is not 1.7% but 3.25% more or less.

So, what's this story about Van Tharp and his methods? The man does not realize that it is the trader who sets the risk, not the market. If you let the market set your risk you will soon lose your shirt and more.

Ron

 

[alexander]

If your stop is at 1.7% of the current last price of USD 30.60, you can tolerate a drop of only 0.52 cents...If your stop is like 1 point, then your actual risk is not 1.7% but 3.25% more or less.

Ron

Exactly. Very good point and example Ron.

Alex

 

[ronblack]

Exactly. Very good point and example Ron.

Alex

Alex,

Common sense should prevail otherwise drawdown will rule.

Ron

 

[temptrader]

Van Tharp is a bloody joke, I wouldn't give a damn about what he writes and pontificates about. The man can't trade, and I doubt he ever can/could, so why on God's green earth is he writing sad, pathetic books telling people how to trade into financial freedom?

 

[ronblack]

Van Tharp is a bloody joke, I wouldn't give a damn about what he writes and pontificates about. The man can't trade, and I doubt he ever can/could, so why on God's green earth is he writing sad, pathetic books telling people how to trade into financial freedom?

Well, I guess his studies about using ATR for position sizing as opposed to fixed percent risk do not make any sense. There is only a marginal increase in performance going from fixed percent risk to ATR while it appears that risk is increased significantly. In that respect I can understand your comments. IMO, risk and position management must be kept as simple as possible. I belong to the Michael Harris fun club. In one of his articles he makes the following statement:

"Moreover, system developers sometimes attempt to weave complicated risk and money management rules into their trading methods, ignoring another, perhaps less understood fact: Such rules must be treated as an integral part of the trading
system during back-testing to ensure that historical performance results reflect real trading potential."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_management

For a free copy of the article go to this link:

http://www.activetradermag.com/pdf/May2002.pdf

For another excellent article by Michael Harris on profitability go to this link:

http://www.tradingpatterns.com/About_Us/articles/articles.html

I say just Keep it simple. That's the lesson I have learned the hard way.

Ron

 

[temptrader]

Well, I guess his studies about using ATR for position sizing as opposed to fixed percent risk do not make any sense. There is only a marginal increase in performance going from fixed percent risk to ATR while it appears that risk is increased significantly. In that respect I can understand your comments. IMO, risk and position management must be kept as simple as possible. I belong to the Michael Harris fun club. In one of his articles he makes the following statement:

"Moreover, system developers sometimes attempt to weave complicated risk and money management rules into their trading methods, ignoring another, perhaps less understood fact: Such rules must be treated as an integral part of the trading
system during back-testing to ensure that historical performance results reflect real trading potential."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_management

For a free copy of the article go to this link:

http://www.activetradermag.com/pdf/May2002.pdf

For another excellent article by Michael Harris on profitability go to this link:

http://www.tradingpatterns.com/About_Us/articles/articles.html

I say just Keep it simple. That's the lesson I have learned the hard way.

Ron

well, dear boy, I can appreciate what you've written, but it still doesn't get to the main point: why even give Van Tharp the time of day? There are better things for me to waste my time on, and looking over what Van Tharp says, do, recommends is not on that list.

 

[alexander]

well, dear boy, I can appreciate what you've written, but it still doesn't get to the main point: why even give Van Tharp the time of day? There are better things for me to waste my time on, and looking over what Van Tharp says, do, recommends is not on that list.

Hi temptrader, I don't think Van Tharp is a total waste. He brings up some very good points about money management but I do not agree with the methods he proposes and his justification for that based on limited testing he performs. I prefer simple money management based on the fixed risk percent methodology.Tharp's ATR based method is just too risky for me.

Alex

 

[temptrader]

Hi temptrader, I don't think Van Tharp is a total waste. He brings up some very good points about money management but I do not agree with the methods he proposes and his justification for that based on limited testing he performs. I prefer simple money management based on the fixed risk percent methodology.Tharp's ATR based method is just too risky for me.

Alex

I never said Van Tharp is a total waste. It's just hearing his advice is like listening to a charlatan - gives you a really bad taste in the mouth.

Why can't authors like him just cut the BS and come clean, we might even respect him for it, but it really gets my ire that people like him write the stuff they do, without ever having put real money on the line.

Given enough reading about a particular field I too could BS about it all day and make myself look like some kind of expert, but when push comes to shove I won't be able to cut it. Same for Mr Tharp here, who does not earn his money from trading.

 

[Pat494]

Has anyone tried running APS real time ?
I would be most interested to hear fom anyone, Especially if they have tried it on the Dow ( YM ) with Metastock.
Sometimes APS works really well BUT sometimes not too good.
Nice to know BEFORE shelling out loads of dollars