patience? no kidding

[Chartsy]

i heard it alllll the time when starting out 'be patient and do the simple things'
''haha, as long as ive got a good method patience duzzin matter'

ive made 1 trade in 2 months, and it was a loser, i am a swing trader but holy **** i'm finding it very boring indeed sitting on the sidelines for weeks, for limits not to be filled etc.

it's actually much more of a drag than it looks,imo

 

[Prawnsandwich]

Something seriously wrong with your method.....not working and needs to be changed to something else

 

[Chartsy]

Something seriously wrong with your method.....not working and needs to be changed to something else

well basically trend trading, i went long eurusd and obviously that's failed.
waited for the highs to break to confirm a continuation, and waited for the lows to break (which happened) and now waiting for a good rally to sell in to (taking its time)

 

[Prawnsandwich]

well basically trend trading, i went long eurusd and obviously that's failed.
waited for the highs to break to confirm a continuation, and waited for the lows to break (which happened) and now waiting for a good rally to sell in to (taking its time)

one trade /one loser in two months means your method is wrong and you need to start from scratch, maybe look at lower time frames/ higher frequency trades

 

[Chartsy]

i think that's crap advice

 

[Prawnsandwich]

i think that's crap advice

OK its crap advice...keep doing what your doing, you might get a winner in another couple of months....your right...your method is great...its trading thats such a boring / pointless undertaking in general...we're all in the same boat

 

[Shanghai]

i heard it alllll the time when starting out 'be patient and do the simple things'
''haha, as long as ive got a good method patience duzzin matter'

ive made 1 trade in 2 months, and it was a loser, i am a swing trader but holy **** i'm finding it very boring indeed sitting on the sidelines for weeks, for limits not to be filled etc.

it's actually much more of a drag than it looks,imo

I know several swing traders that are in the same boat and the ones that are coming out ahead are the ones who are keeping their powder dry on the whole waiting for the market to break out of this trading range.

Last year in contrast was great for trend swing traders and the market conditions will come back again.

Maybe you could look at add a counter trend strategy to your system to liven things up a bit and give you some more trades but on the positive side you seems to have your discipline nailed, down unlike some traders that I know who have been taking poor setups recently out of frustration and have been slowly eroding their accounts.

 

[Chartsy]

OK its crap advice...keep doing what your doing, you might get a winner in another couple of months....your right...your method is great...its trading thats such a boring / pointless undertaking in general...we're all in the same boat

i don't understand your thought process:
not many trades=bad method

 

[Shanghai]

one trade /one loser in two months means your method is wrong and you need to start from scratch,

Actually that is crap advice. His method may be perfectly sound and profitable, its just that the market conditions at the moment are not suitable for his system and therefore he is taking the correct approach and standing aside.

Taking trades off lower timescales to give more activity may be an option worth investigating but it doesn't mean that his basic system is wrong.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

I know several swing traders that are in the same boat and the ones that are coming out ahead are the ones who are keeping their powder dry on the whole waiting for the market to break out of this trading range.

Last year in contrast was great for trend swing traders and the market conditions will come back again.

Maybe you could look at add a counter trend strategy to your system to liven things up a bit and give you some more trades but on the positive side you seems to have your discipline nailed, down unlike some traders that I know who have been taking poor setups recently out of frustration and have been slowly eroding their accounts.

Surely there are other position / swing trading opportunities on different currency pairs, possibly on shorter time horizons , if that is the instrument being traded? Not sure on how you can be ahead while keeping your powder dry....at end of the day you / your method needs to be adaptable to changing market conditions...if your not making money over a long period then its not working....

 

[Chartsy]

Surely there are other position / swing trading opportunities on different currency pairs, possibly on shorter time horizons , if that is the instrument being traded? Not sure on how you can be ahead while keeping your powder dry....at end of the day you / your method needs to be adaptable to changing market conditions...if your not making money over a long period then its not working....

there's always going to be trends, and the way i trade them means i can make pips even if it's just a swing
possibly, but most pairs are correlated anyway so what's the point really, plus short timeframes just aren't my thing.
i've just underestimated how long those bars last for back in my hindsight days
i don't understand how you think trend trading should be adaptable to ranging markets, i myself decide when it works and when it doesn't

 

[Shanghai]

.at end of the day you / your method needs to be adaptable to changing market conditions

I trade a basic three or four systems. All of them work under different market conditions. My basic trend following system also gives few signals at the moment but I have other systems to compensate. It doesn't mean that a system shoud work under all market conditions because most don't and the failure to appreciate the market conditions causes many traders to fail.

 

[0007]

i heard it alllll the time when starting out 'be patient and do the simple things'
''haha, as long as ive got a good method patience duzzin matter'

ive made 1 trade in 2 months, and it was a loser, i am a swing trader but holy **** i'm finding it very boring indeed sitting on the sidelines for weeks, for limits not to be filled etc.

it's actually much more of a drag than it looks,imo

10/10 for discipline but you're gonna have to find really good trades if you only do 1 every 2 mths.

Have you considered trading shares - eg Nasdaq? - Good for swingers and there are trades most days.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

I trade a basic three or four systems. All of them work under different market conditions. My basic trend following system also gives few signals at the moment but I have other systems to compensate. It doesn't mean that a system shoud work under all market conditions because most don't and the failure to appreciate the market conditions causes many traders to fail.

OK you need to have different methods or be able to adapt your method to market conditions.. semantics..never said one system needs to work in all markets....however, if you have one method and its not working over a long period , and one loser in two months I would say is a long period , then you need to adapt the method or find alternatives....

 

[Prawnsandwich]

Actually that is crap advice. His method may be perfectly sound and profitable, its just that the market conditions at the moment are not suitable for his system and therefore he is taking the correct approach and standing aside.

Taking trades off lower timescales to give more activity may be an option worth investigating but it doesn't mean that his basic system is wrong.

Ah come on, he's had one trade and one loser in two months.... which may drag on further....who's to say that market conditions will change back to suit his method in the immediate future, what if he has to wait another year ? So he should should just sit on his hands waiting for the market to come back to him, however long it takes without looking at alternative approaches....its the market thats wrong not him..?

Also, is he satisfied that his method ever work effectively in the first place ? DId it produce consistent winning months?

 

[Prawnsandwich]

there's always going to be trends, and the way i trade them means i can make pips even if it's just a swing
possibly, but most pairs are correlated anyway so what's the point really, plus short timeframes just aren't my thing.
i've just underestimated how long those bars last for back in my hindsight days
i don't understand how you think trend trading should be adaptable to ranging markets, i myself decide when it works and when it doesn't

Surely that market should do the deciding...?

There have been no trending pairs ? Must have been some .....

 

[Shakone]

You waited 2 months for one trade, which was a wrong trade. prawnsandwich may have been a bit blunt, but he's not exactly wrong. Not saying you need to drop down a timeframe, but look at other pairs at least. 2 months trading, 100% losers, down x%. It is not that "not many trades=bad method" as you said. It is the fact that you're losing for two months. Trading is about making money, and you're losing for two months. Whether that is one trade or 100. And worse, your system doesn't seem to get many trade signals, so that when you're down x%, it will take months to recover (if you get a winner).

I think it is flawed too. How can you have even demo'ed this? If it is one signal every 2 months, you'd have to demo for about 10 years just to get a significant sample size on which to judge whether it works.

 

[rawrschach]

Oh pshaw, two months is a long time my ass. If you're bored go do something fun, if you're swinging you don't exactly have to marry the ticker. One trade is not a big enough sample for these nancy boys to tell you your system is bad.

Trading proper markets like commodities/stocks should increase your trade frequency.

edit: It wasn't a 'wrong' trade, it was a trade his system gave him which he managed according to his rules which is nowhere near a wrong a trade. Every approach will have its inherent variance, the only thing that matters is expectancy, and only you [Chartsy] know that right know, ergo the rest of y'all are talking outta your sphincters.

 

[Prawnsandwich]

Oh pshaw, two months is a long time my ass. If you're bored go do something fun, if you're swinging you don't exactly have to marry the ticker. One trade is not a big enough sample for these nancy boys to tell you your system is bad.

Trading proper markets like commodities/stocks should increase your trade frequency.

edit: It wasn't a 'wrong' trade, it was a trade his system gave him which he managed according to his rules which is nowhere near a wrong a trade. Every approach will have its inherent variance, the only thing that matters is expectancy, and only you [Chartsy] know that right know, ergo the rest of y'all are talking outta your sphincters.

Well theres marrying the ticker, and then theres divorcing the ticker, changing your name and moving to outer mongolia......

 

[Shakone]

Semantics. I call it a wrong trade, when you would prefer I call it just a loser. It is the same to me.

Anyway, as I mentioned, if this is the typical frequency of trades (one every 2 months or so), he would need to have traded this system for around a decade to get a sufficient sample size to judge his expectancy, which you point out is all that matters. I already know that he hasn't done that. He doesn't know the expectancy, and is trading a method that he won't find out it has negative expectancy for many years even if he stuck to it. Flawed.