gtatix
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I would like to ask whether some of these ideas have ever been entertained. Perhaps current indicators already incorporate some of these ideas? If so, maybe you could direct me as to which ones and how to read more about them. I would also appreciate if anyone wanted to share some of their ideas - conceptualizations etc - that they would perhaps like furthered or explained that they offer them within this thread.
I will start with 3 for now.
1) Expected partial reversal observation: I am looking at daily candles. I see that - VERY OFTEN - the next day's candle retraces into much of the previous days candle. If I were to measure the retracement percentage - i.e. 38%, 50%, 60% - how often would this happen. If I only consider previous day candles that are a minimum of say 60 pips or 100 pips or 120 pips, what would change? If I considered only the body of the candle or the body and the shadow in the direction of the previous day's candle, would this be a better measurement than just the body for calculating the next days expected retracement. Stops and acceptable initial movement in the opposite direction would need to be considered as well - among a few other things I am sure.
2) Picking a direction from a specific start time: Perhaps it is the U.S. openning or each of the main openning times OR perhaps a specific time like 24:00 EST? Ultimately it would likely be that a time to do this would be as important as the observation of the event. The "event" is basically a retracement point. So the time would likely be of great importance. Supposition of the success of this hypothetical trading concept is largely based on what a few do at the moment they hit the buy or sell "button." I am speaking of watching - say a 5 minute chart or a 1 minute chart - at exactly 7:59am EST each day. The chart moves. It moves 7 pips long after exactly 5 minutes. It continues to tick up a little and down a little. At 10 minutes it has moved long 9 pips and never moved into the short area at all. NOW...I want to know how often - at 8:00am everyday a profitable trade can be anticipated in the OPPOSITE direction to the first 5 minutes - or perhaps 10 or 30 minutes - of that day's original movement IF the movement is less than 10 - maybe 3 maybe 12 maybe 20 - pips in the first "X" minutes. This would be based on - none other than - probabilities. But the event could be a result of the way trading works ALL THE TIME. It starts to go this way and then - wham it goes that way. All - ultimately - based on the psychology/methodology of the first who jump into the trades at X o'clock. Input?
3) This one I don't like already, but I will put it out here. It is more of a gambling concept than anything: Perhaps there is a "best chart" to view this concept. Hypothetically 3 red candles of value 50 or greater occur in a row. The greatest retracement of the previous candle is either zero or less; or less than - say 5%??. Now, we suspect this won't last so, we go long - looking for blue - or green - or whatever colour your up candles are. Will we win or lose? Does this look good on a 4hr chart over the past 10 years? What if we only do this if there are 7 such candles in a row? Will we wait so long that it is virtually profitless? Can we do this with a sort of "Martingale" or "Fibonacci" gambling procedure where if it fails with the first attempt after 3 candles, we double our next order? Has this been looked at?
I'll leave these three as a starter. Input welcomed but please either know where I am going with these and tell me - oh that's been done - here's some info on that, or explain - with personal knowledge or experience - why this wouldn't work. Thanks.
More out-of-the-box to come ?
I will start with 3 for now.
1) Expected partial reversal observation: I am looking at daily candles. I see that - VERY OFTEN - the next day's candle retraces into much of the previous days candle. If I were to measure the retracement percentage - i.e. 38%, 50%, 60% - how often would this happen. If I only consider previous day candles that are a minimum of say 60 pips or 100 pips or 120 pips, what would change? If I considered only the body of the candle or the body and the shadow in the direction of the previous day's candle, would this be a better measurement than just the body for calculating the next days expected retracement. Stops and acceptable initial movement in the opposite direction would need to be considered as well - among a few other things I am sure.
2) Picking a direction from a specific start time: Perhaps it is the U.S. openning or each of the main openning times OR perhaps a specific time like 24:00 EST? Ultimately it would likely be that a time to do this would be as important as the observation of the event. The "event" is basically a retracement point. So the time would likely be of great importance. Supposition of the success of this hypothetical trading concept is largely based on what a few do at the moment they hit the buy or sell "button." I am speaking of watching - say a 5 minute chart or a 1 minute chart - at exactly 7:59am EST each day. The chart moves. It moves 7 pips long after exactly 5 minutes. It continues to tick up a little and down a little. At 10 minutes it has moved long 9 pips and never moved into the short area at all. NOW...I want to know how often - at 8:00am everyday a profitable trade can be anticipated in the OPPOSITE direction to the first 5 minutes - or perhaps 10 or 30 minutes - of that day's original movement IF the movement is less than 10 - maybe 3 maybe 12 maybe 20 - pips in the first "X" minutes. This would be based on - none other than - probabilities. But the event could be a result of the way trading works ALL THE TIME. It starts to go this way and then - wham it goes that way. All - ultimately - based on the psychology/methodology of the first who jump into the trades at X o'clock. Input?
3) This one I don't like already, but I will put it out here. It is more of a gambling concept than anything: Perhaps there is a "best chart" to view this concept. Hypothetically 3 red candles of value 50 or greater occur in a row. The greatest retracement of the previous candle is either zero or less; or less than - say 5%??. Now, we suspect this won't last so, we go long - looking for blue - or green - or whatever colour your up candles are. Will we win or lose? Does this look good on a 4hr chart over the past 10 years? What if we only do this if there are 7 such candles in a row? Will we wait so long that it is virtually profitless? Can we do this with a sort of "Martingale" or "Fibonacci" gambling procedure where if it fails with the first attempt after 3 candles, we double our next order? Has this been looked at?
I'll leave these three as a starter. Input welcomed but please either know where I am going with these and tell me - oh that's been done - here's some info on that, or explain - with personal knowledge or experience - why this wouldn't work. Thanks.
More out-of-the-box to come ?
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