Opinions please


Junior member

I am in my trading infancy and require some opinions:

BskyB is above 200 day sma and seems to be trending up. The moving average is presently sloping slightly downwards.

Would you go long, or wait for the sma to turn?

BSKY looking at the monthly & weekly charts its in a up trend.

On the daily chart its now in a down trend so its up to you whether you jump in now. I would set a stop loss @ 620.

I would rather long this above 700 when its more bullish with a view of it getting to 1000.

The saying goes buy high sell higher.

Good luck.
Thanks for the advice mooms.

I have just added a weekly and monthly chart to my software - thanks for flagging that - I have just been looking at daily movements.
hi madgooner,

Though you're not saying it, I assume you mean a midto long term long, ie holding for days/weeks and not just intraday...

As seen on the attached chart, you are right in saying its trending up, however it is right at thetrend line suggesting the risk of possible break down the line... so any long entry should see a bounce off the line first.

As for the 200MA its above it only just and the 200MA not trending up yet, in response to your question in that regard, yes it is significant that it trends up...

The horizontal line I've drawn suggesting where the next resisting line and possible break out could occur if it keeps trending up...

Notice the 50MA (pink) has not crossed over the 200 one yet, that is also something worth to watch as it would suggest a golden cross which is a very bullish sign...

Also the indicators showing a bit of negative divergence which is worth to keep an eye on...

The 2 blue lines also showing an ascending triangle which usually breaks up on an uptrend... but the price being right at the trend line is a warning...

So overall, if I trade this short term I'd go long on bounce off the trend line targeting 10 points or so and short on break down of the line with a similar point target...

If I am to consider mid to long term long though, I'd wait for the break of the horizontal line, the 200MA to turn up (preferrably the 50MA crossing over it) and the indicators negative divergence to sort itself outot at least start ticking back up...

I dont trade long term, I trade intraday, but the above would be my view on a mid to long term long on BSY...

Good Luck...



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The very well respected Odey Asset Management have just gone long with BSkyB and is their largest holding in one of their funds.

Hope this helps

I'm sure they are well respected, but have their funds returned a positive percentage this year? 'Cos, if they haven't, it might not be a good idea to follow them or indeed any fund.

There don't seem to be many funds who are in the black this year.

I don't have much knowledge of UK stocks and I do not trade them now, but my money's on a short.
FWIW I would go short from here:

Long term MAs are flat and price has broken below the shorter term MA. It looks to me as if the uptrend has fizzled out here. Negative divergence on the indicators too, which points to a price correction down.
Only thing to watch is the ascending triangle which is a bullish pattern.
Depending on how much drawdown you can face I would place stops around 660 or the horizontal line of the triangle (680ish)which if broken would be very bullish.


Skimbleshanks...not to say I'm recommedsing Odey but the main man in this fund is Hugh Hendry.Hugh is a fantastic trader who's 2nd to none.Any self respecting uk trader listens to Hugh.Often appears on CNBC.
Btw, Odey's record is fantasic over a 5 year period .Just a post for info.on Hugh and Odey, hope it helps.
Hugh may be the best thing since sliced bread, but are his funds recording a positive growth this year? That was my point - no fund appears to be able to beat a building society for percentage increase.

In a recent press release a North American fund was blowing its own trumpet for being the best-performing technology fund in 2002. Wonderful, eh? Best of the bunch! You'd certainly think so, but on reading further they were boasting about LOSING 10% of the fund in 2002, against the industry-average of -20%. So a punter puts his hard-earned money into a fund to be 'grown' by so-called professionals, and they manage on average to lose 20% of it!
So let's see Hugh Hendry's record or Odey's. As a matter of curiousity I've been to their website.
Their Euro trust managed to be down -1.08% in 2001 and up a mere 3.59% in 2002. Guess what, swamped by their costs.
Like I said in another thread, proof,proof, proof please.
If I were only to make 3.59% in a month, never mind a whole year, I'd do something else for a living.
Even looking at their performance during the tech bubble years, anyone with a blunt pin could have done better.

Never, ever give your money to anyone else to trade/invest. Learn to do it yourself.
Hi all

Mr. Charts - your right. In the long run it's more profitable to learn how to trade - after all you won't be paying yourself huge bonuses which is what the funds have to do.

What I want to know is, how can a fund lose money. These people are "supposedly" trained professionals. There's nothing to say that you HAVE to invest the funds money - after all we all say that cash is a position, and if the market is falling, they have the option to go short.

I know the markets have been poor for the last 3 years......

Actually hold on - the markets have been brilliant!!!! A great tech boom, with everyone making money and the burst bubble that should have been very profitable for the fund managers. What on earth has been going on for companies to lose money?

Just some questions that need answering. :)
Don't forget that you're also paying a management fee to those funds to invest your money. In other words you are paying for the priviledge of allowing so-called professional traders to throw your money down the drain.

I would suggest that they are possibly the last people anyone should pay attention to. :D
Firstly Riz, thanks for the chart and analyis above - very interesting and I hope we'll see more analysis of individual shares.

Secondly FTSE beater, a glance through the M and G handbook reveals what a Fund manager really has to do to stay in a job. Not fall too far behind the Index.

It's interesting to see how many of them are basically index trackers with just a slight variation in individual share weightings. At the end of the year you've done an oustanding job if you've beaten the index by 1+ % and not too bad if your only a couple of % below it. (before fees of course)

One appreciates that a Fund is like a supertanker and cannot be nimble with it's strategy changes like a individual but far too many are taking fees for little discernable benefit to the investor.

Rant over.
Hi Dr. Mike

I seem to remember reading about Fund managers only needing to track the index.

So if a fund manager under performs an index - then they lose their job, so it's beneficial to them to just track the index.

Ok so your job title is to track the index. Pick the top 5 companies in the FTSE 100 - so that's BP, Vodafone, GlaxoSmithKline, Royal Bank of Scotland and HSBC - you buy equal shares in each on the 2nd January. What do you do for the rest of the year?

If the above is true, then it backs up Skim's point perfectly. Are you going to trust someone who is just buying 5 shares a year and leaving them :confused:


PS: At this point I would like to apologise to madgooner for diverting this thread completely
Thanks Riz and mooms I am S/Betting Uk shares and would like to get more of members views on the UK ftse100 and UK shares.
I recently went long on Barclays but reading todays press I think i have dropped a clanger and will close this in the morning.Is it to late to go short on barclays.
Reference Barclays.

I have not read the news today on this stock.

If its a paper Tipsters or one of the Clown Brokers, I would forget there sell advice for now, but if they are going bust thats different

From a TA view this looks at my buying leveling here 355/360.

I wouldnt do anything too hasty yet.
Thanks for the reply. Will see what happens next week the final results are due in feb.I am also long on RBOS a bit nervous about banks and am looking for some shares to short to keep a balance.
Would like to keep this Uk subject ongoing because I have learnt a lot from this site. have tried trading the DOW and FTSE index but have returned to the FTSE shares, I cannot day trade and it suits me to position trade . LOL .
FTSE Beater - No problem.

Can I throw Amlin Plc into the hat (have a look at the chart), it is classed as a FTSE 250 but Fins do not offer it - anyone know why?