Oil Updates by Solid ECN

SOLIDECN

Experienced member

The price may fall.

On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing, within which a local correction has ended as the wave (ii) of a.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 82.3 - 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.42.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Crude Oil, oil holds near 109


During the Asian session, quotations of Brent Crude Oil show restrained growth, trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 109.

Yesterday, the instrument was actively decreasing, which analysts attribute to fears of a sharp drop in demand for oil products from China. Since Monday, authorities in the city of Shanghai have announced the biggest lockdown since the start of the pandemic. In particular, almost half of the city will be closed for mass testing for COVID-19 for four days, after which the other half of the city will be closed for another four days. All city enterprises, except those that provide life support, will be sent to a remote mode of operation, and residents will not be able to leave their apartments even for grocery shopping.

Additional pressure on the quotes of Brent Crude Oil was provided by reports of new rocket attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Today, in the context of a possible decrease or even a hypothetical cessation of Russian energy supplies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates act as countries that can compensate for possible losses in the world market, but OPEC+ is not in a hurry to increase quotas for a monthly increase in production volumes. The cartel's next meeting should take place at the end of the month, and any hint of a change in current production plans could lead to noticeable fluctuations in quotes.

On Tuesday, markets are waiting for the publication of a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on the dynamics of "black gold" stocks for the week of March 25. The previous document reflected their decline by 4.28M barrels.

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are trying to turn into a horizontal plane: the price range remains practically unchanged but remains quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD falls, keeping a strong sell signal. Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics, indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels
: 109, 112, 115.5, 118.32.
Support levels: 106, 102.8, 100, 96.5.​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Brent Crude Oil: oil market expects major changes​

Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are currently trading below 108.00 as geopolitical tensions eased after talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Turkey yesterday.

Yesterday, the CNBC TV channel published a report on the reorientation of Russian oil supplies to Asian markets. According to experts, there is no talk of a complete change in the transportation route, but according to data for the first quarter of 2022, it is planned to increase exports to India significantly. Since the beginning of March, about 6M barrels have already been sent to the country, which is half of last year's total volume, and a 20% discount on supplies has also been provided. Also, it is reported that a preliminary agreement has also been reached with China, and if it is eventually signed, this could make serious changes to the global energy market and support Brent Crude Oil quotes. Also, the Ministry of Energy of Saudi Arabia announced the intention of the kingdom to increase production in 2022 and the possible appearance of an excess of oil of about 2M barrels per day on the market in this case.

Yesterday's report on stocks from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a decrease in stocks by 3.000M barrels, while last week, the reduction was 4.280M. If today's US Department of Energy (EIA) statistics also reflect a decrease in stocks, this will support the oil price.

On the global chart, the price continues to clamp within the formation of the global Triangle pattern. Technical indicators keep a buy signal that is not clear enough. Indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the buy zone.

Support levels
: 106.3, 96 | Resistance levels: 118, 131.​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Crude Oil, US considers plan to release 180M barrels of oil​



WTI Crude Oil lost about $5 a barrel on Thursday after reports that US authorities are considering releasing up to 180M barrels of "black gold" from their reserves, the largest energy release in the nearly 50-years history of the Strategic Oil Reserve. The measure will aim to combat the rapid rise in gasoline prices and the reduction in energy supplies against the backdrop of anti-Russian sanctions imposed after the start of a special military operation in Ukraine. Against this backdrop, US West Texas Intermediate futures for May delivery fell 5.8% to 101.59 dollars per barrel after hitting a low of 100.85 earlier.

The OPEC+ meeting will take place today at 12:00 (GMT+2). It is expected that the cartel will continue to adhere to previously announced plans for oil production, and quotas will increase by 400K barrels per day. It is reported that in February, the participants fulfilled the agreement by 136%.

The release of additional US oil to the market may be effective in reducing volatility and containing sharp upward movements, but since OPEC+ remains unwilling to increase production significantly, this decision will not be able to affect prices in the long term. Also, investors will observe the course of hostilities and negotiations aimed at a ceasefire on the territory of Ukraine. A potential de-escalation of the military conflict could stop the sharp rise in energy prices, but the imposed sanctions against Russia and the inability to replace Russian oil in a short period will put upward pressure on the market.​

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The long-term trend is upwards. After reaching 130.00, the quotes went into correction and tested the support level of 95.00, from which a new upward impulse began, which continued to 117.50. This week, market participants are testing the support level of 103.00, which will bring the instrument to 117.50. The breakdown of 103.00 will be the catalyst for a decline to 95.00.

The medium-term trend remains upward. Currently, the price is trying to consolidate below the key support zone 106.21–105.01. If successful, the trend will change to a downtrend, and the target for sales will be target zone 2 (94.21–93.01). If the key support of the trend is held, then the growth will continue with the target of around 119.66–118.46.

Resistance levels: 117.5, 130 | Support levels: 103, 95, 85.​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Brent Crude Oil, oil prices are falling

The instrument develops the downward momentum that formed yesterday when the market responded with sales to new statements by US President Joe Biden about his intention to additionally send 1M barrels per day to the market from the strategic reserve (SPR). It is expected that such a measure will be in effect for the next six months and will allow prices to stabilize at current levels or lower in the face of uncertainty regarding energy supplies from Russia. Also, Biden instructed to work out new measures to support American producers of "black gold," which will also potentially contribute to the development of corrective dynamics in the commodity areas.

Meanwhile, the OPEC+ meeting, which took place yesterday, again did not lead to any changes in the market. Despite pressure from the United States, the cartel refused to increase production: it will increase only by the planned 432K barrels per day for May. Analysts note that OPEC fears sharp fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics in the market and therefore avoids additional influence on the situation, given the sharply increased geopolitical risks.

On Friday, also to the March report on the US labor market, the focus of traders will be statistics from Baker Hughes on active oil platforms. The previous report for the week of March 25 showed an increase in active drilling units from 524 to 531 units.
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On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving flat. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is going down, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics, but the indicator line is rapidly approaching its lows, indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 106, 109, 112, 115.5 | Support levels: 102.8, 100, 96.5, 93.34​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Brent Crude Oil, price correction may continue​

Last week, Brent Crude Oil quotes corrected downwards and reached the area of 103.70 against the background of measures taken by the US administration and international structures to stabilize the global oil market.

So, the head of the White House Joe Biden announced the withdrawal of an additional 1M barrels per day from The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This process will continue for six months, which will lead to the release of approximately 180M barrels of "black gold". The members of the International Energy Agency also agreed to a new coordinated release of part of the strategic reserves to the market, but its details have not yet been disclosed. Of the local factors of pressure on energy quotes, it is worth highlighting the conclusion of a truce in Yemen between local Houthi rebels and the government forces of Saudi Arabia. The agreement includes the cessation of offensive military operations, as well as permits the import of fuel to areas controlled by the Houthis, and eliminates the threat of new attacks on oil-producing infrastructure. The development of a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in China has a negative impact on energy quotes, which may reduce demand from the world's leading consumer.

Nevertheless, according to experts, all these circumstances will only lead to a temporary price correction, but will not be able to meet the demand for "black gold" in the mid-term. The fact is that the volumes of SPR brought to the market will not be able to compensate for the departure of Russian exporters, who now supply up to 3M barrels of oil per day. Experts also believe that American oil companies will prefer to extract excess profits instead of investing in production and knocking down rapidly rising prices, however, a continuation of the decline in quotations in the short term is quite likely.
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Now the price is in the area of 106.2 and may continue the downward trend to 100, 92.8 (Fibo retracement 61.8%). The key for the "bulls" is the level of 112.5 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Murray [1/8]), at the breakout of which the asset can strengthen to 117 and 125, however, the decline option still looks more preferable, since the Bollinger Bands and the Stochastic are directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is preparing to move into the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 112.5, 117, 125 | Support levels: 100, 92.8​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member

WTI Crude Oil, Saudi Arabia raised oil prices in May​



Energy assets continue to add value amid calls by EU leaders for the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions in response to the events in Ukraine. Now the price of North American WTI Crude Oil is being adjusted in an uptrend and is at around 103.46.

Earlier, the US authorities proposed another plan to stabilize the global oil market, for the implementation of which it is planned to use reserves from the US strategic reserve. In particular, the head of the White House, Joe Biden, announced the launch of an additional 1M barrels per day on the market within six months, which will lead to the release of approximately 180M barrels of "black gold". Now it is difficult to assess how much this decision will put pressure on quotes, but Saudi Arabia immediately responded by adjusting its pricing policy. Thus, the state-owned Saudi Aramco company, which accounts for more than 60% of its supplies to Asia, and among the largest buyers are China, Japan, South Korea and India, announced that it is raising selling prices for all grades of oil that will be delivered to the Asian and American markets in May. In particular, the price of Arab Light grade oil for Asian buyers will rise to 9.35 dollars per barrel, and for American buyers – to a record 5.65 dollars per barrel. For European consumers, the price of Arab Light will increase by 3 dollars, and Brent Crude Oil – by 4.6 dollars comparing to April quotes. The management of Saudi Aramco made this decision after OPEC+ last Thursday confirmed plans for a gradual increase in production by 400K barrels per day in accordance with the schedule of gradual growth, despite the jump in energy prices observed on the market.​

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On the daily chart of the asset, the price continues to trade within the global "triangle" pattern, before the end of the formation of which there is not much time left. Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the alligator indicator has begun to narrow again, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms new descending bars, being close to the transition level.

Resistance levels: 107.43, 122 | Support levels: 97.17, 87.2​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Crude Oil, oscillatory dynamics ahead of new anti-Russian sanctions​


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During the Asian session, the price of Brent Crude Oil rose modestly, partially recovering from yesterday's decline. The development of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis influences the dynamics of the asset, an increase in the supply of energy resources, and a drop in demand from China, the largest consumer, due to an increase in the incidence of COVID-19. The instrument is again trying to consolidate above 106.00, receiving support from fears of new EU sanctions against Russian energy imports.

Yesterday, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that Washington would announce new measures that could affect the energy sector this week. The "hawkish" rhetoric was supported by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It is reported that the EU is also preparing a package of sanctions, which, among other things, may contain an embargo on the import of coal, oil, and gas from the Russian Federation, as well as a ban on Russian ships from entering the ports of the EU countries. Despite strong pressure both within the region and from outside the United States, Germany, the largest buyer of Russian energy resources in the European Union, and, for example, Hungary, oppose any significant restrictions on oil and natural gas supplies, reasonably fearing for their energy security.

Yesterday, pressure on the asset was exerted by the American Petroleum Institute (API) report data on reserves. On April 1, the indicator rose by 1.08M barrels after a decrease of 3M barrels in the previous period. The positive dynamics are associated with measures to release strategic reserves, which US President Joe Biden previously announced. Still, fears of new restrictions on Russia offset the impact on the market of the rhetoric of the US authorities and the International Energy Agency (IEA), although last week, this step contributed to decreasing in quotations of "black gold."​

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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse into a horizontal plane: the price range narrows slightly from below, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is going down, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, on the contrary, retains a fairly confident upward direction, which is still poorly correlated with the real dynamics of the market.

Resistance levels: 106, 109, 112, 115.5 | Support levels: 102.8, 100, 96.5, 93.34.​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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The price of North American WTI Crude Oil is correcting within a downtrend around 97.00, having lost more than 5.7% in value yesterday.

As it became known yesterday, 29 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release up to 120M barrels of "black gold" from their reserve storage facilities. There has never been such an intervention in the history of the oil market, and the main goal of this operation is to stabilize the exchange rate of energy carriers, whose quotes continue to be around 100 dollars per barrel. It is expected that 60M barrels of the total volume will be allocated by the United States and the remaining 60M – by other countries of the agreement: Japan, Australia, and the states that are members of the EU.

The asset's local dynamics were influenced by data on reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the International Energy Agency (EIA). According to the API report, weekly oil stocks increased by 1.080M barrels after falling by 3.000M barrels last week, while the EIA reported an increase of 2.421M barrels after falling last week by 3.449M barrels.

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After yesterday's decline on the daily chart of the asset, the first signs of the beginning of the implementation of the Triangle pattern appeared. The price tried to consolidate below the support line of the pattern. Technical indicators gave a signal to start selling: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range began to expand downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 102.87, 113.75 | Support levels: 93.40, 83.93​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member

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On the daily chart, the upward wave C develops, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C formed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave a of 2 is forming, within which the local correction (ii) of a has ended, and the third wave (iii) of a is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 77.08 - 62.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 122.93.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

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On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing, within which the correctional wave (ii) of a and the wave (iii) of a has ended.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the local correction (iv) of the price will fall to the levels of $82.3 - $67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is $118.28.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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Benchmark Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting downwards, trading just above $100 a barrel.
The escalation of the military conflict on the territory of Ukraine, which has become the cause of unprecedented anti-Russian sanctions, causes investors to fear that there will be a shortage of supply on the market due to the refusal of some countries to import Russian energy resources. However, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo acknowledged that the European Union has little to replace the oil it imports from Russia, and because of the sanctions, the world market may face the loss of about 7M barrels of Russian oil per day.

The pressure on the market comes from unprecedented measures to release reserve reserves of their oil in 120M barrels by countries participating in the International Energy Agency, such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea, to stabilize market prices. Also, to the release by the IEA countries of 120M barrels, 60M barrels will fall on the main member of the agency, the United States, which will supply an additional 120M barrels of its reserves to the market independently. Japan has already released 15M barrels, and South Korea is preparing to increase its supply by 7.23M barrels.

The market has another reason. It is no secret that the largest positions are formed on the stock exchange in double positions called "spread." There is a historical situation when the index of the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of world currencies, USD Index, and Brent Crude Oil cost the same. Quotes of both the dollar index and oil are around 100, which creates the possibility of working on expanding the difference in these prices in both directions at once. In other words, both positions are being formed on the rise in oil/fall in the dollar index and the fall in oil/rise in the dollar index. In any case, the amount of money in this position is already huge, which is evident from the volatility, and, therefore, this will lead to serious price fluctuations soon.

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On the global chart, the price continues to trade within the formation of the global Triangle pattern. Technical indicators reversed and gave a sell signal: the range of fluctuations of the Alligator EMA began to expand downwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved into the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 103.44, 118.07 | Support levels: 96.20, 81.44​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member

Crude Oil, "black gold" resumed growth​


Yesterday, Brent Crude Oil prices were actively growing, trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 100 dollars per barrel, and today the instrument managed to reach $104.

Investors are waiting for the publication of data from the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of oil inventories for the week of April 8. A similar report released yesterday by the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected a sharp increase of 7.757M barrels after an increase of only 1.08M barrels over the past period, which put some pressure on the energy carrier's quotes and kept quotes from more active upward dynamics. Demand for "black gold" remains quite high as global economies recover from the coronavirus pandemic and against the backdrop of the developing crisis in Eastern Europe, which has forced many countries to look for alternative sources of supply and replenish their stocks. Also, investors are reacting positively to easing several sanitary restrictions in China, which adheres to a "zero tolerance" policy for the coronavirus.

Additional support for prices was provided by new statements by OPEC+ Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo, who stressed that the organization currently does not have the opportunity to replace Russian oil for the EU completely. The cartel also warned politicians against imposing a full embargo on supplies, noting that in this case, the market would lose 7M barrels of energy and warning of serious consequences for the global economy. Meanwhile, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov predicted an increase in energy prices to the region of 80–150 dollars per barrel and the readiness of the authorities to sell fuel to friendly countries in any price range.

Recall that the foreign ministers of the EU countries on April 11 could not agree on a pan-European embargo on importing Russian oil and gas, while the US authorities imposed a ban on supplies last month, and the UK plans to do so by the end of the year.
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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately declining: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD reversed upwards, forming a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows a more active growth, accelerating after a sharp rise in the instrument yesterday.

Resistance levels: 106, 109, 112, 115.5 | Support levels: 102.8, 100, 96.5, 93.34​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member

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Futures for WTI Crude Oil showed a downward trend during the Asian session, shedding 0.74% in value, and are currently trading in the 103.3 area. Investors open short positions on the instrument, reacting to the negative statistics on the excessive growth of stocks of raw materials in the US against the backdrop of a reduction in global consumption.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy stocks rose by 9.382M barrels last week, although analysts had forecast an increase in 863K barrels. The sharp move is partly due to a sudden decline in US refining capacity utilization, which has also caused gasoline and distillate inventories to shrink, and inventories are on the rise due to the release of "black gold" from the country's national strategic reserves. It is worth noting that initially, this statistic was ignored by traders, and on Wednesday, the asset strengthened, but now you can notice the delayed impact of the news and the decline in energy quotations.

However, the market situation remains tense due to possible disruptions to global supplies. Investors are watching the development of the military conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against the Russian economy, including possible restrictions on the transportation of hydrocarbons. The US and UK authorities have already abandoned Russian fuel, but the EU has so far refrained from an embargo on oil and gas imports. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency warned that the market would miss about 3M barrels of oil per day since May due to prohibitive measures. Major global trading houses also plan to cut fuel purchases from Russian state-owned companies. In particular, one of the largest oil traders in the world, the Swiss-Dutch company Vitol Group, intends to stop trading in oil and oil products from Russia until the end of 2022.

A temporary decrease in demand for "black gold" in China due to anti-COVID restrictions smooths out problems with the supply of raw materials globally, but as demand recovers, quotes will grow. WTI Crude Oil above 100 dollars per barrel is a sound long-term target.

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The long-term trend is upward, and its key support is 95. Last week, the "bears" unsuccessfully tried to reverse the trend, but as a result, the rate is approaching the resistance of 105.75, in case of a breakout of which, the next growth target will be 117.5.

The medium-term trend is downwards. This week there was a price correction to the area of key resistance 103.71–102.76. As long as sellers hold this area, short positions can be considered with the target at the current week's low. If the key resistance is broken, the trend will reverse upwards, and zone 2 (113.21 - 112.26) will become the target for long positions.

Resistance levels: 105.75, 117.5 | Support levels: 95, 85

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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Benchmark Brent Crude Oil continues its uptrend, trading just above 110 dollars per barrel.

The day before, Russian President Vladimir Putin, as part of a meeting with members of the government, instructed to submit a project for reorienting oil and gas supplies from Europe to Asia by June 1 of this year. For the market, this means that Russia does not intend to wait for a long time for a decision from the EU authorities on its readiness to continue cooperation and plans to consider Africa, Asia and Latin America as alternative markets. The head of the Russian state also instructed to accelerate the implementation of infrastructure projects, including pipelines, in order to redirect the supply of resources to new consumers. It is quite natural that after such statements, oil quotes again began to rise sharply.

In the meantime, the European Union plans to introduce a phased ban on Russian oil, so that Germany and other countries have time to find alternative suppliers and provide transport infrastructure for the delivery of raw materials. At the moment, the transition period is determined to be at least a month long. It is planned to submit the idea of a complete embargo on Russian fuel for consideration by all EU members after the second round of elections in France, which will be held on April 24. At the moment, Germany receives 34% of the total oil from the Russian Federation, and the European Union receives 25%.

Statistics on oil reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) this week were unexpected. According to the API, inventories rose by 7.757 million barrels, while the EIA reported an increase to 9.382 million barrels, the highest level since March 2021.

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On the global chart, the price continues to trade as part of the formation of the global Triangle pattern. Technical indicators are ready to give a new sell signal: the fast Alligator indicator EMAs crossed each other, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 103.65, 95.17 | Resistance levels: 118.1, 131.2​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
Crude Oil, "black gold" consolidated above $110

During the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices show ambiguous trading dynamics, consolidating near the level of 111.00 and renewing local highs of March 28.

The fears of a sharp reduction in market supply if the EU expands sanctions and imposes a full or partial embargo on Russian energy supplies as the military conflict over Ukraine escalates, support the prices. The approved fifth package of sanctions did not include a complete ban on importing "black gold" but outlined restrictions on the purchase of coal and some other raw materials. Nevertheless, Europe is already announcing new measures that may also affect oil flows. The US and the UK had previously announced a complete cessation of imports from Russia, which significantly impacted the dynamics of prices in commodity markets.

Also, there is an unstable situation in production at the El Feel field, located in the west of Libya. Amid protests against incumbent Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeib, the state-owned National Oil Corp. announced the suspension of production, and two ports were forced to stop working, as a result of which the shipment of 1M barrels of crude oil was blocked and production of about 65K barrels per day was stopped.

At the beginning of the week, statistics from China moderately support the prices. Thus, the country's Q1 GDP rose by 1.3% and 4.8%, with preliminary estimates of 0.6% and 4.4%. At the same time, the pace of industrial production again slowed down from 7.5% to 5.0%, which was only 0.5% stronger than analysts' forecasts. China is one of the largest importers of oil and oil products, and the slowdown in its economy is extremely painful for the overall level of demand.
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Bollinger bands are trying to reverse upwards on the daily chart: the price range is expanding, barely keeping with the surge of the "bullish" sentiment. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic remains in an upward direction but is close to its highs, reflecting that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 112, 115.5, 118.32, 121 | Support levels: 109, 106, 102.8, 100​

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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The price of North American Crude Oil is rising and is currently at $106.4.

The quotes of the asset returned to an uptrend after the increase in geopolitical tensions in the world and the introduction of economic sanctions against Russia, as well as against the backdrop of concerns about a reduction in the supply of "black gold". Last week, the International Energy Agency noted that approximately 3 million barrels of Russian oil per day may become unavailable from May due to sanctions or due to a voluntary decision by buyer countries. In addition, the pressure on the rate is exerted by the unstable situation in the west of Libya. The day before, the National Oil Corporation announced the suspension of production at the El Sharara field due to force majeure, which also threatens to increase the shortage of energy resources in the market, and after the closure of two ports, the shipment of 1 million barrels of crude oil was blocked and production of about 65 thousand barrels of oil per day was stopped.

The day before, Nabila Massrali, EU spokesperson for Foreign Affairs of the High Representative Josep Borrell, said that negotiations on a "nuclear deal" with Iran were suspended, since the parties still had unfinished questions, but she stressed that the agreements were in the final phase.

Investor demand for oil contracts remains stable. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions last week amounted to 304.8 thousand, which is slightly lower than 308.6 thousand a week earlier.

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After an attempt to overcome the resistance line, the price returned and remained inside the Triangle pattern; however, the prospect of overcoming the pattern's resistance line is still quite high. Technical indicators confirm this by issuing an updated signal to start buying: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator started expanding in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is still trading in the sales zone without forming descending bars.

Support levels: 102.65, 93.14 | Resistance levels: 113.76, 126.38​
 

SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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During the Asian session, WTI Crude Oil prices show multidirectional dynamics, holding close to $103 per barrel.

Yesterday, EU representatives reaffirmed their intention to phase out the import of Russian energy resources, which increased the likelihood of new prohibitive measures being included in the sixth sanctions package. According to the Secretary of State of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of France, Clément Beaune, there are currently active discussions on the embargo with partners from the EU, the US, the UK, and Japan. Meanwhile, shipments of Russian oil by sea have already fallen by 25% (3.12M barrels per day). Also, traders evaluate the dynamics of industrial growth rates globally and, in particular, in China, one of the largest importers of petroleum products.

The instrument was supported yesterday by an unexpectedly sharp reduction in US oil reserves. Thus, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week of April 15, the indicator fell by 8.02M barrels after an increase of 9.382M barrels over the previous period. However, analysts expected the positive dynamics to continue at 2.417M barrels. At the same time, US strategic reserves decreased by 4.7M barrels, while production slightly accelerated to 11.9M barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell by 800K barrels, significantly lower than the expected value of 1.2M barrels.

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Bollinger bands are moving flat on the daily chart: the price range remains practically unchanged, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator reversed upwards but keeps its previous sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic practically did not react to the appearance of ambiguous trading dynamics on Wednesday and still signals in favor of developing a downtrend in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance levels: 103, 105, 107.67, 110 | Support levels: 101.37, 100, 98, 96

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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On the daily chart, the upward wave C develops, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has developed, and a local correction is ending to form as the fourth wave iv of 1, within which the wave (e) of iv is developing.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction the price will grow to the levels of 139.64 - 155. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 97.73.

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SOLIDECN

Experienced member
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On the daily chart, the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing, within which the correctional wave (iv) of a has ended, and the development of the fifth wave (v) of a has started.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 82.3 - 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 109.65.

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