US Dollar – Holding Firm
DXY trades near 101.40, supported by safe-haven demand ahead of the Fed meeting. Oil's sharp decline eased inflation fears, but the dollar's relative strength against Europe and Japan persists. Markets are pricing a 35.8% chance of a hawkish surprise.Key levels: Support 101.00–100.87; Resistance 101.53–101.80.
Outlook: Neutral to bullish. Fed will set direction Wednesday.
Gold – Support at $4,000
Gold holds near $4,100/oz. Lower oil prices reduce inflation pressures, a positive for the metal. But a strong dollar and high yields cap gains. Net longs increased, showing continued safe-haven demand.Key levels: Support $4,052–$4,000; Resistance $4,166–$4,200.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,000. Break above $4,166 targets $4,200.
Oil – Crashing on Ceasefire Hopes
WTI plunged 8% to $81.50/bbl as US-Iran tensions eased. Pakistan and China brokered peace talks, unwinding last week's 9% rally. Houthi attacks continue but markets are focused on supply stabilization.Key levels: Support $80.00–$77.60; Resistance $88.36–$92.25.
Outlook: Bearish below $88.36. Watch $80.00 support.
ASX200 – Tech Leads Rebound
ASX200 rose 1.4% to 8,894, reversing Friday's losses. IT stocks led (WTC +7%, XRO +6%) while energy fell 3%. Local PMI beat expectations, boosting sentiment.Key levels: Support 8,800–8,770; Resistance 8,920–8,950.
Outlook: Bullish above 8,800. Watch AU CPI tomorrow.
Nikkei225 – Cautious Gains
Nikkei225 rose 0.5% to 64,931, led by airlines on lower oil prices. SoftBank and semiconductors weighed. Japan's reliance on oil imports makes it a key beneficiary of lower crude.Key levels: Support 64,500–64,000; Resistance 65,300–65,500.
Outlook: Neutral. Watch BoJ decision Friday.
Currency Pairs – Key Levels
- EUR/USD: 1.1358–1.1400 – Support 1.1364–1.1324; Resistance 1.1440–1.1480
- GBP/USD: 1.3280–1.3320 – Support 1.3270–1.3250; Resistance 1.3330–1.3398
- AUD/USD: 0.6978–0.7000 – Support 0.6960–0.6900; Resistance 0.7027–0.7100
- USD/JPY: 163.70–164.00 – Support 162.84–162.00; Resistance 164.50–165.00
Key Events This Week
- Today: ADP Employment, Consumer Confidence (US)
- Wednesday: AU Q2 CPI (11:30 AEST)
- Thursday: Fed Decision (04:00 AEST), BoE Decision
- Friday: US Core PCE, BoJ Decision, Michigan Sentiment
- Gold: Bullish above $4,000
- Oil: Bearish below $88.36
- Dollar: Neutral, awaiting Fed
- ASX200: Bullish above 8,800
