OBAMA affect- post election bounce

wallstreet1928

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So what do we think people...............

I have gone long on FTSE @ 4410(stop loss 4350) and Dow Jones @ 9350(STOP LOSS 9250) ??

ANYBODY ELSE DOING THE SAME, I have read in several blogs that people think there will be a post election bounce due political uncertainty coming to an end and that OBAMA is pro economy, not to mention santa clause rally???
 
anyway I have just take a nice profit of 120 points on the DOW and 60 points on the FTSE............

I always trade 2 CFD contracts on indices.........

keep it nice and small is my methodology, short and sweet and you will always stay in the game for longer

I honestly don't understand how people buy 10 CFD contracts, its crazy............

just think about it people, I trade 2 contracts and can make around £1000 a week, after taking into account losses.......... thats £4000 a month? what else do you want???

theres no need to trade higher than 2 contracts if you ask me?

anyway other theories welcome................

Adios amigos
 
Taking Obama at his word, The stock market should find an equilibrium somewhere much lower. Why? Because a lot of the rallies we saw before the troubles started were obviously based on the world being awash with easy credit. A large part of that was due to banks and other institutions being too greedy and trying to get as many people as possible to pay them the ever-decreasing rates caused by all the competition. If Obama is seen following through with his promise to regulate the financial markets so that they do not overreach and get into this sort of trouble again, the effect would be to make people realise that the soaring stock market backed by easy money is not going to carry on for too long. Logically, this should make the market look for an equilibrium point where the returns would be commensurate with the amount of real capital (give or take). This should cut the price of indices like the DOW by a significant amount.

This should ease inflationary pressures significantly and keep interest rates low. Assuming the goverments do not panic and screw it up, this should lead to a quick and sharp decline of significant proportions. If they let it happen while protecting people from too much shock, then the recovery should be reasonably quick and the dollar would do extremely well in the medium term. However, do not count on goverments not to mess it up as they have always done, usually making people think they are doing some miracle because goverment action looks good in the short term.

As to an immidiate relief-rally, while hard to rule it out, it would be surprising if the markets have not discounted an Obama win.
 
But do you not think the market has already factored in an OBAMA victory, based on the premise that you think that an OBAMA win will cause the market to fall due to excessive regulation............!!

oil which was driven by easy money as you state(speculators artificially increasing price of oil with cheap money as you say) has fallen over 50 %

Dow & Nasdaq has fallen by 25% along with other world indices
 
gutted market has rallied even more .........should have kept my position for more profit............?/

anybody else long?
 
Been long since 4355 Wallstreet .....

At 4535 taking some chips of the table but still long for today

Take a rest you have done well ,,,,, come back next week and enjoy your profits M8 :)

Obama will be a dangourse Presedent because he knows too much and it appears he has brains, dont like what USA has in store over the coming months .....
 
Obama will be a dangourse Presedent because he knows too much and it appears he has brains, dont like what USA has in store over the coming months ..... "

haha, good point...............an american president with brains could be dangerous!!

no I honestly think he will be good as I've had enough of rich fat polticians winning elections(clinton & Bush dynasty) ......its about time the americans got a people personwho has risen among the ranks??

lets face it, anything is better than BUSH?
 
Bush has let the peole run the USA who really knows how it works.
Having Ombaba is like letting a rabbit trade the Forex Market, all views are different but having a preasedent with brains is bad news.

Come on Wallstreet, if gordon brown had brains do you realy thing that we would have hoodies, drunken teens, high knife crime , together with selling our assests ( gold ) when it was at its lowest point for years.

Rarther them than me, but still very dangourse The Market dont like change = uncirtainty = lower Market Index's
 
So there are other things that you dislike, apart from spreadbetting firms? That's better. All that hate stored up in one direction is not healthy. ;)
 
according to your theory we should be shorting the market.............I hope you did because you would have done well, FTSE & DOW fallen 200 points
 
here's an article that supports your view TomTom from martin D Weid from money markets

everybody knows I'm a bear..........the Euphoria is over people but even i didn't expect market to fall this morning

"Obama victory rally in stocks? Don't be fooled ...

World stock markets are extending their bear market rally, and there's a possibility they could continue to do so for a while longer.

If so, don't be fooled!

Why?

Because the drivers behind the rally are artificial, psychological and temporary — the government's herculean efforts to ease credit conditions, the typical short-covering that comes after a big crash, and the hope, especially among overseas investors, that America's new president-elect, Barack Obama, can somehow avert a deeper global recession.

But the forces behind the bear market are fundamental and long-term — an economy that's coming unglued at the seams, a debt collapse that has barely begun, and the worst federal deficit of all time.

Both parties must now recognize that no U.S. president, regardless of domestic or overseas popularity, can do much to change the dire economic realities of our time. Nor can he change the fact that ..."
 
continued..............

"The U.S. Treasury Is on the Verge of the
Biggest Borrowing Binge of All Time.

The facts:

The Treasury has just announced it must borrow $550 billion in the October-December quarter.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the government will soon have to borrow TWO TRILLION DOLLARS — to finance the $850 billion federal deficit ... to buy $500 billion in bad assets ... and roll over $561 billion in maturing Treasuries securities ... plus more. And,

We believe Goldman Sachs is underestimating the Treasury's upcoming borrowing needs: As the U.S. economy continues to crater, as federal tax revenues continue to plunge, and as Washington runs amuck with bailouts, that $2 trillion could easily grow to $2.5 trillion, even $3 trillion!
The end result: A huge new supply of Treasury bonds, falling bond prices, surging interest and a new phase of the debt crisis coming soon.

Our recommendation: If stocks continue to rally in the days ahead, use it as another excellent SELLING opportunity.

Regardless of what the new administration may plan or do, the fact remains that the world's massive speculative bubbles have burst — in housing, commercial real estate, stock markets, commodities, and, above all, debts.

But all the world's leaders, with all their radical new measures, cannot put them back together again.

Even as the government commits new billions to be spent on financial rescues, trillions in wealth will be wiped out with a sinking economy, sinking real estate, falling stocks, bonds and commodities.

Even as the government sweeps piles of bad debts under the carpet, mountains of new debts will go bad — a new flood of mortgages that can't be paid, a new raft of credit cards falling behind, an avalanche of companies going bankrupt.

Even as it throws life savers to a select group of large companies, countless small- and medium-size companies will drown.

Yes, for a while longer, governments all over the world will continue trying everything in their power to stop the fall. They will inject more money into bankrupt banks, broken brokerage firms, endangered insurers and any company they deem essential to the economy. They will pump more resources into real estate markets, credit markets and even stock markets. They will stimulate temporary rallies. They will buy some time.

But no government can repeal the law of gravity and stop investors from selling. No force on Earth can turn back the clock and undo decades of financial sins.

Best wishes,

Martin and Mike
 
Alex Jones' Prison Planet: The truth will set you free!

The More Things “Change” The More They Stay The Same

Obama the Messiah-Dictator is more dangerous than Bush


Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones
Prison Planet.com
Tuesday, November 4, 2008

The messianic fervor which has preceded Barack Obama’s expected ascension to the White House has alarming implications for freedom and is a painful reminder that most Americans have once again been suckered into believing that the two-party monopoly offers any kind of solution to the crisis that we face.

For eight years during the term of Bill Clinton, Alex Jones was labeled a right-wing fascist for opposing him and for the past near-eight years Jones has been derided as a communist and even an Al-Qaeda member for railing against the Bush administration.

Now even regular readers of our own websites are calling Alex a right-wing racist once again merely for questioning the ascension of the new great leader - Barack Obama.

The messianic complex that has been attached to Obama is truly frightening. Bishops like Cornal Garnett Henning are calling Obama the new “Moses” while his supporters refer to him as “the black Jesus”.

In one You Tube clip, a woman hails Obama’s Godly powers by proclaiming that as soon as he is elected, all her problems will simply disappear, saying that Obama will help her personally almost like Jesus healed the sick and wounded.

The election of a new president should not be a mindless act of idolatry and fanfare, it should be a solemn commitment to find a leader who will follow the Constitution.

But Barack Obama will ride into office with a gigantic approval rating to rival that of Bush after 9/11, along with a complete power monopoly over the executive, the legislative, the judicial as well as widespread media support.

This makes Obama more dangerous than Bush and certainly a damn site more dangerous than a McCain administration, because his policies for at least a year or two will enjoy universal acclaim and voices of dissent will be drowned out by a wave of droning acquiescence.

Obama has all the political capital he needs to implement the terrifying policies that he has already announced and beef the architecture of the police state crafted by Bush.

- The creation of a “civilian national security force” that is “just as powerful, just as strong, just as well-funded” as the U.S. military to enforce Obama’s carbon tax scheme and the total regulation and control of the American middle class.

- Obama has talked openly about his intention to bomb Pakistan under the guise of pursuing terrorists, continuing a Bush administration policy of violating the sovereignty of foreign nations.

- The guarantee to “bankrupt” coal power plants, costing millions of American jobs and skyrocketing energy prices.

- Unbridled implementation and expansion of the banker bailout that is hated by the majority of American citizens yet was vigorously promoted by both Obama and McCain. Doling out taxpayer’s money to Wall Street, causing rampant inflation, a lowering in living standards and the destruction of the dollar.

- Obama has rhetorically supported the second amendment and an individual’s right to bear arms, but his actions tell a different story. Obama supports local gun ban laws, including his endorsement of a state ban on the sale and possession of handguns in Illinois.

- Obama grandstands on the notion that he supports environmentalism with his climate change rhetoric, but his intention to extend biofuel subsidies will only accelerate price food costs that have already risen 75 per cent since 2002, causing economic distress and rioting in such countries as Haiti, Egypt, and Somalia, as well as deforestation on a massive scale.

Mark our words - the causes that the liberal left has been fighting for over the last eight years will simply be forgotten just like conservatives were put to sleep when Bush came to power. Obama is the pacifier that the establishment needs to quiet the simmering anger amongst Americans that has been threatening to boil over.

It will no longer be “fashionable” to fight the police state amongst the political left.

Mark our words - there will be no repeal of the Patriot Act, there will be no repeal of the John Warner Defense Authorization Act, there will be no repeal of warrantless secret surveillance of American citizens.

Democratic control of Congress and the Senate since the 2006 elections has achieved nothing in the way of reversing the Bush administration’s assaults on the Constitution, so why should we expect Obama to do anything different?

Obama may eventually withdraw a portion of troops from Iraq but mark our words, they won’t be home long before they are sent off to bomb another broken-backed third world country, this time in the name of a United Nations-backed “humanitarian” war, just as Bill Clinton presided over in Somalia and Serbia with the full support of the establishment political left.

Indeed, Obama’s running mate Joe Biden has already “promised” and “guaranteed” that Obama will be faced with an international crisis that will mandate him to take “unpopular” and “tough” decisions in the context of foreign policy.

Don’t think for a second that our warnings about Obama are an endorsement for John McCain. We have tirelessly attempted to educate Americans about the two party monopoly and the fact that Democrats and Republicans serve the interests of the elite, not the people, and have for at least five decades since Kennedy was killed.

Obama is Coca-Cola and McCain is Pepsi - at the end of the day you’re still drinking the same beverage.

The two-party monopoly offers no solutions for the problems we face, in fact the two-party monopoly that you will be helping to maintain should you vote for either Obama or McCain - is the problem.

Stop falling for the same bait and switch trick again and again every eight years.

When George W. Bush was elected, conservatives were in adulation and awe, confident that after eight years of federal government expansion under Clinton, Bush - complete with slick conservative rhetoric and promises of change - would shrink the size of government and restore dignity to the office of President.

Nearly eight years later and what have we witnessed, a record expansion in the size of government and an almost universal contempt for America around the world.

When Tony Blair swept into power with a landslide in the British general election in 1997, the country breathed a collective sigh of relief that this new young dynamo would put right years of Tory malfeasance and provide the “change” that everyone was crying out for.

When Blair left office in 2007 he had created a Socialist surveillance police state and eliminated a huge popular approval lead the Labour Party had enjoyed over the Tories, leaving most of the public once again to demand Conservative rule.

When are we going to wake up to the fact that voting in the lesser of two evils is not a solution?

When are we going to realize that participating in a rigged system, where our vote means virtually nothing anyway because it is counted by a completely compromised and hackable voting machine, not only fails to address any of our problems, but actually compounds them because of our passive obedience in participating in the phony virtual reality presented to us as “democracy”?

When are we going to realize that by continually electing Democrats and Republicans, we are voting away our own freedom as the march towards a new world order and an American police state proceeds no matter who takes office?
 
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