Oats

[minx]

Ok, after a triple top we came off, broke the channel at the top and fell through a decending wedge. Is that another forming? Will be break down or are we bouncing?
It's currently hanging around the 78% fib extention level and 1294 is a 100% extention of the move from april 5th to may 21st. If it does break the 161% level is at 1060, so offering a nice prize....
if though.....if........

 

[bgold]

Looking at the O Z4 (dec seems to be the more liquid contract), it seems to be bottoming; I see pos divergence in momentum and slightly in RSI but no signals yet in fe MACD or Stoch. Your pattern and fib analysis is interesting. Looking at the elliott waves, it seems recent low was a wave 3, so downtrend may not yet be over. 1060 indeed a good target. Don't know what to make of the 30 June gap. Will there be attempt to fill before next leg down? For now I am inclined to look for bear setups.

Minx, perhaps you may want to increase size of images a little. It find them a little difficult to read.

 

[bgold]

Oats ready to reverse?

Oats is another grain which IMHO still seems to trace out a correction in a bear market (nevermind all the frost alarms). I am looking for confirmation of top wave 4. On an intra day time frame a 5 wave down & 3 wave up would be most convenient but do not see it for now. Momentum indicators haven't turned down either or displayed neg divergence.
Target for wave 5 is sub recent lows at 128 and therefore a considerable move. I would like to catch this one, especially as I missed the grains bull trades during hols.

Any thoughts or observations?

 

[minx]

Hey bgold, hope the hols were good. I cut a long in this yesterday after the strong open turned to mush, am now waiting to see if the fiblevels are going to hold as resistance. Looking for a break below 146.5 b4 I'll be shorting.

 

[bgold]

Hey bgold, hope the hols were good. I cut a long in this yesterday after the strong open turned to mush, am now waiting to see if the fiblevels are going to hold as resistance. Looking for a break below 146.5 b4 I'll be shorting.

Ok, my system gives me a perfect short set-up which i took at yesterdays' open. End of wave 4 correction filling 30June gap but not closing on each of Jul 31, Aug 1-2.
Took a short at @ 146.75; target <128 possibly <115 with initial stop at 155.75 (eg above recent highs).
Don't like wide stop and will tighten at 1st opportunity.

 

[DaveT]

BGold -

Good luck with your short position in OATS, but I personally would have waited until after Fridays CROP PRODUCTION REPORTS in the grains, before taking on new positions.

Notice the gap open today.

OATS is often considered the leader in the grains - this may just be market 'lore' but it does seem to hold water historically.

If OATS is the leader again this time, the double bottom could hold and corn and wheat should follow , starting new minor uptrends.

Note on the DEC OATS chart below, the old MACD + SLOW STOCH signal appeared in the double bottom, coupled with bullish divergence - this all tells me the double bottom could well be a significant low.

 

[bgold]

BGold -

Good luck with your short position in OATS, but I personally would have waited until after Fridays CROP PRODUCTION REPORTS in the grains, before taking on new positions.

Notice the gap open today.

OATS is often considered the leader in the grains - this may just be market 'lore' but it does seem to hold water historically.

If OATS is the leader again this time, the double bottom could hold and corn and wheat should follow , starting new minor uptrends.

Note on the DEC OATS chart below, the old MACD + SLOW STOCH signal appeared in the double bottom, coupled with bullish divergence - this all tells me the double bottom could well be a significant low.

Thanks for your thorough analysis. If Corn doesn't give way, it might register a triple bottom which might be a very solid base. If not...., there seems considerable more downside, possibly as low as 173 1/2 where 5 = 0.618 x ( 1 tru 3)

Oats trade doesn't look very clever at the moment. Today is certainly a remarkable bullish reversal. While I was prepared for O Z4 to fill gap of 3Sep, I was not expecting the gap to close (eg close above 150 1/2). Looks a high likelyhood as we speak. Will revisit situation overnight.

 

[real1]

Technically, Oats futures contracts are currently trading at the same nominal price l

If you look at the logarithmic chart the triangle pattern is not yet broken to the upside. Whereas On the linear oats futures chart the triangle is already broken to the upside.

source : Commodities Charts