NY Coffee Monthly on cusp of a breakout?

[DaveT]

The 14000 resistance looms large on the monthly.
IF we should close the month of January above 14000 (ie Daily, weekly AND monthly breakout), I will be targeting 16000 to 18000 before Harvest (ie Late May 2008)

Notice the MACD histogram has moved firmly into positive territory on the Monthly FOR THE FIRST TIME (significantly) since 2005 rally.
What does this tell us about this current move?


Offical Brazil production estimate cam in today at 41-44 m bags - much lower than anticipated.

Long March from 13300 today. Current high 13500 (mid session)

 

[DaveT]

Notice the LAST MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE 14000 was back in March 1998.

10 years ago...

 

[TWI]

DaveT , great to see more coffee analysis. I opened a long yesterday after the gov estimate..ok so mostly they lie but I hear from a producer down there who has no real interest in flat porice that it really will be much tighter. Another of the softs to ride out the year on. NY coffee is one of those difficult products really but so long as the story fits and you can hold on then eventually it tends to reflect reality. Last year was a classic case when after months of waiting it finally broke up.

 

[..]

Gold/Coffee ratio

Nice to see you posting Dave - do you have agold/coffee ratio chart?

The 14000 resistance looms large on the monthly.
IF we should close the month of January above 14000 (ie Daily, weekly AND monthly breakout), I will be targeting 16000 to 18000 before Harvest (ie Late May 2008)

Notice the MACD histogram has moved firmly into positive territory on the Monthly FOR THE FIRST TIME (significantly) since 2005 rally.
What does this tell us about this current move?


Offical Brazil production estimate cam in today at 41-44 m bags - much lower than anticipated.

Long March from 13300 today. Current high 13500 (mid session)