Nowler's Trading Journal

[timsk]

. . . If you look at each trading day there is a high and a low. There has to be really doesn't there? But what you'll find is there are some statistics on where these prices tend to appear most often.

Once you determine where the H/L's most often appear during a trading session you'll be happy. You will have answered a couple of important questions . . .

. . . That will give you an indication that it is possible to identify the H/L more often than the' voices of trading' say is possible . . .

Hi David,
You raise some interesting points. Certainly, if a trader can identify the likely high and low of the day as they print - then that is an edge all by itself - and probably enough to ensure consistent profits. The usual caveats about risk and money management apply of course.

I don't recall any threads devoted specifically to this topic and wondered if you might be tempted into starting one? If you don't have the time or aren't willing to share the fruits of your labours - no worries - just thought I'd ask!
Tim.

 

[Charlton]

What happens at certain times of the day can indeed be a useful thing to analyse. There are, for example, some general characteristics found in a trading day. This example gives a brief pointer to these, but it is best to do your own analysis: https://www.thebalance.com/best-time-s-of-day-to-day-trade-the-stock-market-1031361

The way to play these characteristics is to think about risk and to adjust position sizes or close trades to change your risk profile accordingly.

 

[Nowler]

What happens at certain times of the day can indeed be a useful thing to analyse. There are, for example, some general characteristics found in a trading day. This example gives a brief pointer to these, but it is best to do your own analysis: https://www.thebalance.com/best-time-s-of-day-to-day-trade-the-stock-market-1031361

The way to play these characteristics is to think about risk and to adjust position sizes or close trades to change your risk profile accordingly.

Re: your link
So in terms of Forex, essentially 8am open to...10-11am is the most fruitful?
The London 8am and the U.S 8am more so that the others i'd also assume?

But would the final hour of trading stocks transfer over to forex also?

 

[David Knight]

Hi David,
You raise some interesting points. Certainly, if a trader can identify the likely high and low of the day as they print - then that is an edge all by itself - and probably enough to ensure consistent profits. The usual caveats about risk and money management apply of course.

I don't recall any threads devoted specifically to this topic and wondered if you might be tempted into starting one? If you don't have the time or aren't willing to share the fruits of your labours - no worries - just thought I'd ask!
Tim.

My journal covers some of that ground..

Identifying the likely H/L can be done occasionally, but you're far more likely to get the zone right rather than an exact price- but I'm always working on it

I'm bound to add a thread somewhere at some point, Probably end up being on a different aspect though.

 

[Nowler]

Just a quick update on this months challenge of proving to myself what I can do.

I started off quite bad, losing 5% in the first week and then by week two at some point I was down 10% briefly but then got it back to 5%.

Currently at 6% deficit this month so far and since I cut down on my trading last week for the holidays, it's unlikely that I will get it back into the green this month. I'm not putting too much work in, just scanning over a few of the markets I know the most about... picking up a few pips here and there.

I'll post a screenshot of my account stats closer to the end of the month but in short I have about 30% win record this month and nearly 200 trades.

I moved back to my more comfortable TF's of 1 to 4hrs, and Daily of course. Far more profitable out here than I am in the 1-15 TF's! It crazy! So much easier! Still not easy though.


PS: Purchased the T2W Trading FAQ book yesterday. I'll read a few pages of that each day and hopefully I'll be a bit better by the time I finish.

 

[marthe04]

Hi

Hi

 

[Nowler]

Hi

Hello

Welcome to T2W forums, and my journal

 

[Nowler]

Quick note on the challenge for the month of December.
Result: minus 15% for the month

With about a week and a half to go in the month I pretty much pulled out of the challenge and went back to exploring. December was probably a bad month to try this, but it was a failure nonetheless. Clearly I am not as good as I thought I was. But it's ok, my ego will survive and I'll keep on working at it.

 

[Nowler]

Was looking into sentiment and I came across a comment which mentioned Trading/Investor/Risk Management tests over at tests.marketpsych.com

I completed the Trader Personality Test and attached are my results.
Generally speaking, I would say that this has a decent amount of accuracy so I will see if I can work on tweaking things so that I am more optimal.

For anyone interested, there are a few different tests there...no harm in checking it out.

I believe these Marketpsych folks have done work on neural trading etc..
I wonder if the member "marketpsych" here who never posts is some form of bot from them?

EDIT: I am , perhaps, 90% sure that "marketpsych" is one of their bots.
Thorough, i'll give them that

 

[Nowler]

Here is the conversation where I came across the tests: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY1Uc-8vglk&t=385s

 

[Nowler]

Note to other new traders:

Playing poker works for practicing your money and risk management!
You're still working on vital components of trading, but in a refreshingly different arena! The change is nice for me at least.

Been playing a bit more chess lately too. Not played in ages but the strategic nature of it (looking ahead and also accounting for potential dangers) is surely helpful to ones trading also.

Just thought i'd share.



PS: I got a bit lost with my trading in recent times. Somewhat despairing if I'm honest but I went back and finished the 2nd half of the T2W FAQ Book (100% worth the modest price!). All of a sudden the mental fog cleared and I could see again.

I am going over to the UK Monday coming to clear my head and to suss out somewhere to live when I move over indefinitely in a month or so. While I am away for the 9 days I probably wont trade much but will instead listen to the rest of the 16 hour audiobook from Ray Dalio and perhaps read the T2W FAQ book again. I might even start one of the Jack Schwager books someone was kind enough to pass on to me; Stock Market Wizards, The Market Wizards, and Hedge Fund Market Wizards.

If anyone has a review or a comment about these books then I'd love to hear it

PPS: I have been meaning to read back over this entire journal also. I know already I am going to cringe at some of my comments and assumptions Perhaps I'll do that while I'm away also.

 

[Nowler]

On my way to the airport at the moment. I realised Sunday night that it was actually today that I was flying out, not Monday... Oops. It's definitely a family thing because my siblings have made similar flight mistakes also. Just as well we are not pilots!

I've applied for over 25 jobs across the length and breadth of the nation, from education and prison officer jobs to PC repair and warehouse operatives. Going to register with a few recruitment agencies also and pick up an English number before I head back to Ireland for 2-3 weeks to tie up a few loose ends.

I can smell the opportunities already!

PS: If you see this bum wandering the streets. Give the poor fecker a job!

 

[cantagril]

You back yet:?:

 

[Nowler]

You back yet:?:

I sure am buddy! Yep
Unfortunately a dampener was put on the whole situation when I found out that one of my friends died while I was away. Normally in Ireland we bury our dead on day 3 but for some reason this was delayed and thankfully I made it home to see him off. So sad...32 years of age and died in hospital the night before his heart operation. A nice lad who leaves behind his fiance and 3 sons... one of them being 6 months old. It is what it is I guess. He certainly won't be the last of us.

On a positive note, I sorted out my national insurance number and got an English sim card. I met up with a guy who is looking to move his IT business solely into web design and he seems to have taken a shine to me :cheesy: He's willing to get me up to speed and then I can start making money, for both of us. This is great because I have been aiming to do this at some point. With this I can work remotely, which is awesome and fits perfect with my plans. Plus, I will happily sit in front of a screen all day

I was staying with my sister when over, which really helped! But when I go back in a few weeks I need to move into my own place asap because I can't handle living with her, her partner and their 2 year old (plus their 2nd is due in a few short months). I need my own space and I just cannot relax there. I might stay with them for a week when I go back but I'll be getting a loan before I leave to pay for a deposit and first month's rent. So really, if I can get paid employment within the first 2 weeks then I will be fine. It could take a month before I can make some money from the web design so perhaps get some bar work or something similar to keep me going until then. Or do both!

There is a position working with 16-25 year olds in a college and since I'm a male, that's somewhat sought after (most staff are female). I do however have a criminal record for low level stuff like drink driving, no insurance, possession of weed and a bit of harmless fooling around with the cops one night when I was drunk. I ended up with 120 hours community service for that one, lol...dry arses couldn't just take a joke I will likely apply and will also have to declare these. I am 30 now and these happened between the age 19-21...so hopefully they take into account my circumstances and how I turned things around. That wasn't easy.

I have not turned on my brokers platform since the 16th but have been doing some thinking in regards to trade plans and whatnot. Been listening the Ray Dalio's audiobook "Principles", which is very good FYI! It's been quite helpful when reflecting on who I am and why I do the things I do. Some great advice in there that I fully intend on implementing. Apart from that, I have been watching the news on this potential leverage reduction/margin hike...

I am as sick as a small hospital today after having far more than the 1-4 pints I was only supposed to have last night. The funeral this morning didn't help things either. I was close to just saying "fk it" and jumping into the coffin beside him to get a bit of shut eye

 

[Nowler]

@FXX
Just finished that Ray Dalio audio book, Principles.
Without hesitation I would give it a solid 5 out of 5.

I've recommended it to more than a handful of people already. Very worth it... Regardless of who you are (unemployed/employed, business owner/thinking of starting up, educated/uneducated)

If you are reading this message then go pick yourself up a copy! It's a solid investment, like the T2W FAQ Book