Neural Networks Forecasting

[HiddenOx]

Hi there,

I've been following t2w forum for a while now and it has too much of valuable information and expert knowledgeable people in the forex trade market.

I am a student Studying Artificial Intelligence and currently I am starting my final year project.. I want your advice as experts in this field more than me about what kind of problems that a neural network can help with in forex trades and if you know any leads so I can start digging? probably advice about this topic in terms of a undergraduate final year project?

My Basic idea is to train a time series neural network to predict the trend of the currency market, so I am looking of what factors that can affect it from economical variables, historical variables, external factors, etc.. and I am trying to find providers for such data to use to train the neural network..

Another ideas on mind are currency crisis predictions, risk assesment on trades,... if you have any ideas please let me know with what kind of data will be needed for this problem...

I am also looking into any other problems in the forex market or any hints, areas that would worth looking at.

If possible I am interested in sponsors for my final year project as well.

So feel free to let me know your thoughts and widening my aspiration at the same time.

thank you very much

 

[Hotch]

Well, probably the best thing to do is find a good book. There are plenty about, hit Amazon(or the T2W store ).

This is actually a bit like my project which is super secret :O.

Historical data can be downloaded, free from various places such as Finam Russian Brokerage Companyata Export. More accurate data will cost more.

You can go into as much detail as you want really. Depending on how far into you go, will depend on how much data you need.

As for sponsorship, you might be able to get some, might also want to visit some of the more quant focussed forums, or try and have a nose at a bank's GDI team. While not exactly what you're at, they will be far more likely to help then most people on this forum.

Sponsorship could be hard to come across unless you have more defined goals, might be able to get some from a bank I guess. What uni are you at and what course are you doing?

good luck with it!

 

[aon2win]

I dont know much. But I now I love u XD kdding

I dont know much about AI but a bit on Neuronet. I am trying to program this thing into my automated system but boy oh boy, it is so hard. At the end I think Neuronet,Baysian, SVN will be just statistical indicators to use but not relied much heavily on.

 

[HiddenOx]

@ Hotch:
Thnx! It's nice to see people working on similar projects, give me atleast bit of hope to use my technical skills.. I would ask for exampel what would you say a proper research area that I can focus on...

also for the inputs for a network, what kind of indicators thats most suitable I can rely on to train my neural network and what would be the outputs for example. as we know predicting pure values is almost impossible or atleast this is as far as my knowledge gets me.. I hope I can focus more on specific indicators that can give me better results in prediciting the trend for example , or the buying and selling points!.. Also I've learnt that predicting the moving averages isn't that helpful, what do you say about that ?

@anon2win:
what did you use as input on neuronet and what's ur expected output, is it indicator or values?

Regards,
Hidden Ox

 

[HiddenOx]

BTW, I am studying Artificial Intelligence in University of Sunderland. and I've just published a scientific journal in ICANN (International Conference of Artificial Neural Network) in prague and I hope with your help we can get some good results done in this area.

I just read few publications about instead of using only the currency exchange rates as inputs, to include economical values like interest rate in country over 90 days period and like also the prices of crude oil.. what do you think about that, any experiences in terms of these values?,

I am still interested in knowing your opinions in terms of indicators as inputs and expected outputs or expected analysis as a forex traders.

 

[2be]

Hi there,

I've been following t2w forum for a while now and it has too much of valuable information and expert knowledgeable people in the forex trade market.

I am a student Studying Artificial Intelligence and currently I am starting my final year project.. I want your advice as experts in this field more than me about what kind of problems that a neural network can help with in forex trades and if you know any leads so I can start digging? probably advice about this topic in terms of a undergraduate final year project?

My Basic idea is to train a time series neural network to predict the trend of the currency market, so I am looking of what factors that can affect it from economical variables, historical variables, external factors, etc.. and I am trying to find providers for such data to use to train the neural network..

Another ideas on mind are currency crisis predictions, risk assesment on trades,... if you have any ideas please let me know with what kind of data will be needed for this problem...

I am also looking into any other problems in the forex market or any hints, areas that would worth looking at.

If possible I am interested in sponsors for my final year project as well.

So feel free to let me know your thoughts and widening my aspiration at the same time.

thank you very much

Try to approach Vantage Point, eapecially Louis B. Mendelsohn. Their softwarte uses neural index as one of their indicators. Robert Miner in Dynamic Trading software also uses Dynamic Trend Filter. Have a look and see if they are of any use for you.
Best wishes, 2be

 

[Lee Shepherd]

Try to approach Vantage Point, eapecially Louis B. Mendelsohn. Their softwarte uses neural index as one of their indicators. Robert Miner in Dynamic Trading software also uses Dynamic Trend Filter. Have a look and see if they are of any use for you.
Best wishes, 2be

DO NOT approach Vantage Point for anything. They use a very simple set of indicators that throw up predictions of market behaviour based on the behaviour of other markets.

It DOES NOT take into account volume, people behaviour, outside factors like news breaks, market turmoil, credit crunch nor reccessions ect as it knows nothing of this as it relies on artificial intelligence to make market predictions. Lest not forget that the market is controlled by human intelligence (or sometimes lack of) and that intelligence is irrational to say the least at the best of times.

It is simply a set of indicators that are sold at an extremely high value costing in excess of many thousands of pounds(GBP) and has no resale value due to being CD coded to your PC only and under contract. It is good for certain charting ect but way too over priced and the same can be got for a fraction of the price without the hard sell from the salesguys that push it and dont trade it themselves (nor do their family or friends).

My advice: Stay well away.


Lee Shepherd. ( A VP customer)