Neural Network system in action - Live

Intel_Bvc

Junior member
41 3
In the short time I've been on this forum I've seen a great deal of skepticism around the performance of Neural Networks in Forex trading. I believe that this is due to an awful lot of systems out there that have tried to exploit the hype and mystery around this concept and they've ultimately fallen down or been straight up bogus and burnt a lot of people.

However, my system is nothing like any other system out there and I'm prepared to showcase it to all those interested in seeing a truly revolutionary system in action.

I setup a Demo account yestrdy afternoon, to access via a read-only login simply use the below details:

MetaTrader 4 Client
Server: MetaQuotes-Demo
Account: 1813127
P/W: 6twsqlv

Start Balance: $120k

Just under 2 weeks from now the system will reach a point of equilibrium and they'll be anything from 250-400 open trades on at any point in time so I will be updating the thread with the aggregated volumes and positions so that people can get a better view than from the MT4 client as to exactly how the system is positioned going into all the major data releases.

Due to the demo minimum trade size being 0.1 lots I've had to scale up the system by a factor of 10 (So initial deposit was 120k). However the system can be traded using micro-lots (0.01 lots) and min account of 12k.

Once it has settled the system should average about $9k profit per week. The projected profit for the next year is $480k. That's a 400% return on investment.

Any questions please feel free to ask!

Note: You can download the MT4 Client for your PC here: http://www.metatrader4.com/ or goto app store and download on your iPhone or Android device.
 
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pboyles

Legendary member
8,072 1,302
...and more to the point has your neural network taken consideration of the virtual dealer plugin and other similar applications?
 

Intel_Bvc

Junior member
41 3
...and more to the point has your neural network taken consideration of the virtual dealer plugin and other similar applications?

Do you really think an MT4 broker is going to let you make 400%?

pboyles, its not a scalping system, I'm typically holding trades for 4-10 days with approx mean profit per trade of 70 pips. I have to admit I've never heard of this virtual dealer plugin but slippage of a few pips should not have a detrimental affect on the performance/results of the system.

I've ran an earlier version of this system on a metaquotes demo account before only a few months back. I started with $50k and made $5k a week for 5 weeks straight. I'm sure it should be fine.

I'm being transparent about what I'm doing, so I suppose if there's anything untoward going on on the server then I'm sure the experienced members like yourself could point it out.
 

pboyles

Legendary member
8,072 1,302
My main point is that most, if not all, MT4 brokers are taking the other side of your trades, if you win they lose. I seriously doubt they will let you take 9k a week off them. The virtual dealer plugin is designed to carry out a number of functions, not just artificial slippage. For instance it is used to create price spikes.
 

pboyles

Legendary member
8,072 1,302
Also the assumption that the live trades will be the same as demo trades is way off the mark. There will be a world of difference.
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,606 932
If you have managed to program it into MT4 then you should be able to do the same on platforms that trade by DMA. These will not have the same issues as you get with MT4 especially if you are swing or position trading.
 
M

member275544

0 0
I dont think it really matters. Its a neural network, they will blow of their own accord. I've never had one network, even with stunning "hindsight" equity curve, give me a positive number in real trading
That is of course just me, so i will look with eager anticipation to be proved incorrect
 

Intel_Bvc

Junior member
41 3
Also the assumption that the live trades will be the same as demo trades is way off the mark. There will be a world of difference.

I dont think it really matters. Its a neural network, they will blow of their own accord. I've never had one network, even with stunning "hindsight" equity curve, give me a positive number in real trading
That is of course just me, so i will look with eager anticipation to be proved incorrect

Guys, I fully understand your cynicism here. I truly do. Neural Nets have gained a bad reputation.

However, I've created an account and shared the login details for everyone to see. All we can do is watch this space.

pboyles, I do not agree that the demo and live trades are wayyy off the mark. Please provide an explanation of exactly what you mean? I've traded this system on a live account and the only difference I see between demo and live is that the prices are a tiny bit different, the occasional spike, and that I cant trade GBP/AUD because its not available on MetaQuotes Demo server!

I've been honest on this forum as to the issues I've had trading live and they're all my own issues like fear through incorrect account sizing and meddling with the trades/strategies in the run-up to big data release like NFP etc.

However, the system keeps grinding away performing in line with the stats which is why I'm in the process of halving my risk and going in on a joint £12k account with a partner which I'm just waiting to be opened.

Malaguti, this is not like any other Neural Network system you've ever come across. That's all I can say really. Its more than a "trading system". It gives 1 week of 15-min interval future price predictions for each of the currencies I trade. Over time I have noticed certain consistent patterns on the predictions.I've then created code that looks for these patterns in the prediction outputs (which are generated every hour on the hour) and if that pattern is found a trade is placed based on the expected behaviour.

So I didnt data-mine these strategies, I studied the outputs literally for years and then I was able to go back and find all the occurrences of these patterns and quantify just how accurate or not these 'events' are. If the stats are good and they give good Mean per Trade, Std Dev, Max Drawdown, T-Stat etc then I hook it up and add it to my portfolio.

If you look at the Comment for every trade you can see the Strategy that generated that trade. Each Strategy / currency-pair combination has its own optimal hold time which varies between 4-10 days.

I'm not saying this is some supa-dupa crystal ball system. I know its not.

But what I do know is that it will eventually settle on a 60-65% win ratio and that the amount it makes on winning trades will be less than the amount it loses on losing trades.

I've heard someone say to me that Nets are slow to react, my nets build up a massively complex web of hedges, it doesn't necessarily need to "turn around". Of course it generates wrong signals but often another strategy or another set of trades on a different currency-pair altogether quickly off-sets those losses.
 

pboyles

Legendary member
8,072 1,302
There are 2 main issues

1. You have a vendor badge.

2. You are promising 400% a year return

I have an awful feeling this will not work out well.
 
M

member275544

0 0
Guys, I fully understand your cynicism here. I truly do. Neural Nets have gained a bad reputation.

However, I've created an account and shared the login details for everyone to see. All we can do is watch this space.

pboyles, I do not agree that the demo and live trades are wayyy off the mark. Please provide an explanation of exactly what you mean? I've traded this system on a live account and the only difference I see between demo and live is that the prices are a tiny bit different, the occasional spike, and that I cant trade GBP/AUD because its not available on MetaQuotes Demo server!

I've been honest on this forum as to the issues I've had trading live and they're all my own issues like fear through incorrect account sizing and meddling with the trades/strategies in the run-up to big data release like NFP etc.

However, the system keeps grinding away performing in line with the stats which is why I'm in the process of halving my risk and going in on a joint £12k account with a partner which I'm just waiting to be opened.

Malaguti, this is not like any other Neural Network system you've ever come across. That's all I can say really. Its more than a "trading system". It gives 1 week of 15-min interval future price predictions for each of the currencies I trade. Over time I have noticed certain consistent patterns on the predictions.I've then created code that looks for these patterns in the prediction outputs (which are generated every hour on the hour) and if that pattern is found a trade is placed based on the expected behaviour.

So I didnt data-mine these strategies, I studied the outputs literally for years and then I was able to go back and find all the occurrences of these patterns and quantify just how accurate or not these 'events' are. If the stats are good and they give good Mean per Trade, Std Dev, Max Drawdown, T-Stat etc then I hook it up and add it to my portfolio.

If you look at the Comment for every trade you can see the Strategy that generated that trade. Each Strategy / currency-pair combination has its own optimal hold time which varies between 4-10 days.

I'm not saying this is some supa-dupa crystal ball system. I know its not.

But what I do know is that it will eventually settle on a 60-65% win ratio and that the amount it makes on winning trades will be less than the amount it loses on losing trades.

I've heard someone say to me that Nets are slow to react, my nets build up a massively complex web of hedges, it doesn't necessarily need to "turn around". Of course it generates wrong signals but often another strategy or another set of trades on a different currency-pair altogether quickly off-sets those losses.

then trade it, show us the neural signal, your entry and lets put it to the test
 

Intel_Bvc

Junior member
41 3
then trade it, show us the neural signal, your entry and lets put it to the test

That's the whole point of this thread!

MetaTrader 4 Client
Server: MetaQuotes-Demo
Account: 1813127
P/W: 6twsqlv

Start Balance: $120k

Btw, I will be trading a scaled down version of this on a real money account i.e micro-lots and £12K start balance before the end of this week.
 
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M

member275544

0 0
That's the whole point of this thread!

MetaTrader 4 Client
Server: MetaQuotes-Demo
Account: 1813127
P/W: 6twsqlv

Start Balance: $120k

no, the point of the thread is neural network live..
and for all those lucky people who have don't have metatrader..
 

Intel_Bvc

Junior member
41 3
no, the point of the thread is neural network live..
and for all those lucky people who have don't have metatrader..

You can download the app for your phone for free on android or iPhone, or you can download the client for your PC which would probably give you a better insight into the complex web of trades the system generates.

I will be posting how its performing and how the system is positioned hopefully on a daily basis, but its very early for now, I just switched it on. Trades are going on every hour on the hour so certainly wouldn't be practical for me to post every signal.

Its currently up 0.75% over the last 24 hours but that doesn't mean anything, the floating P&L of the system actually tends to swings a lot and is not necessarily indicative of how the systems performing. A better indicator I've found is the daily Change in Equity. This gives an indication as to whether the system is currently doing well. And I'll also try and provide the updated chart for this going forward.

It will take approx 2 weeks before the system reaches equilibrium (trades are being opened at the same rate they're being closed).

Then it should settle into a steady rate of closing off trades for overall profit.
 
M

member275544

0 0
You can download the app for your phone for free on android or iPhone, or you can download the client for your PC which would probably give you a better insight into the complex web of trades the system generates.

I will be posting how its performing and how the system is positioned hopefully on a daily basis, but its very early for now, I just switched it on. Trades are going on every hour on the hour so certainly wouldn't be practical for my to post every signal.

Its currently up 0.75% over the last 24 hours but that doesn't mean anything, the floating P&L of the system actually tends to swings a lot and is not necessarily indicative of how the systems performing. A better indicator I've found is the daily Change in Equity. This gives an indication as to whether the system is currently doing well. And I'll also try and provide the updated chart for this going forward.

It will take approx 2 weeks before the system reaches equilibrium (trades are being opened at the same rate they're being closed).

Then it should settle into a steady rate of closing of trades for profit.

gotcha, apologies Intel
 
 
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