Need advice and feedback on an idea

[sasha_d]

Hi,

I have an idea that I would like to pursue/develop, but I wonder if it is viable. Any feedback will be appreciated.

I suppose many folks here use limit orders to buy/trade securities. When I am submitting a limit order, I have to balance my desire to get a better price with the possibility that the price is too aggressive, and the order will not be executed.

Suppose I had a tool that for a given price and time of validity yields the probability that such order would be executed. Suppose you can see that buying 100 shares of XYZ at $74 has 20% chance, and at $74.6 it is 70% chance. Would such information be helpful?

So, I have a few questions for experienced traders and novices alike:
Would you use such a tool? How would you use it? Do you have any thoughts about how to incorporate it in your trading strategy?

THANK YOU FOR YOUR HELP!!!

 

[IzaIza]

If you could get such tool to work efficiently, it may be more efficiently used in binary.

My honest opinion, if you know how to gauge the trade ladder, you can work orders all day.

 

[sasha_d]

If you could get such tool to work efficiently, it may be more efficiently used in binary.

My honest opinion, if you know how to gauge the trade ladder, you can work orders all day.

Can you explain this, please?

 

[IzaIza]

If you have seen a trade ladder, you can see the orders that are being placed. The volume of orders placed on different prices allows you to gauge the price movement.

It is pretty much the tool you want to create. Except it doesn't give you probability, it gives you raw numbers of orders being worked.

Unless you meant using just charts... not working orders against other traders... hmm...

On another thought, do you know how the fibonacci retracement works? It can be applied in the same idea as the tool you are thinking of.

 

[Pat Riley]

Suppose I had a tool that for a given price and time of validity yields the probability that such order would be executed. Suppose you can see that buying 100 shares of XYZ at $74 has 20% chance, and at $74.6 it is 70% chance. Would such information be helpful?

Ask yourself, in what way would that be useful? What would you do if you had that information and how would it change your order placement?