Nasdaq 100

adrianallen99

Established member
Was just wondering what peoples thoughts were with the progress of this.

It seems to have had a big boost on the basis of Earnings reports from the tech companies. I brought into this early in the rise and have made decent points over the last week, although it seems to be struggling at the 1540 mark. Im guessing much of the good news was already added to this Nasdaq hence the recent dips.

I would be keen to know what peoples opinions are on what might happen next. I would like to see some decent growth and a few end of day closes above the 1541 or something.

I closed my position Today at 1542.
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
It's very likely that we're still in the early stages of the new bull run in tech shares imho...

The Nasdaq100 hasn't even reached a 23.6% fib retracement of it's drop from the 4800 high in March 2000 to the 800 low.

The earnings and outlooks of the tech majors are improving, and barring disaster, the 23.6% fib retracement level of 1750 should be met soon, with the 38.2% level at 2335 on the horizon.

The Nasdaq Comp clearing 2000 appears to have given the retail investor confidence, and the buying has accelerated recently - but it's never a straight line up - there will be pullbacks along the way which could be buying opportunities...
 

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Salty Gibbon

Experienced member
Probably going to make some major advances now I guess.

I read Charlie Miller's daily email and he is saying that now the Nasdaq Composite has shaken itself clear of 2100 ( major resistance ) it will probably head on up now.

So Nasdaq 100 to go up too of course.
 

Trader333

Moderator
tradesmart,

Bear in mind that this retracement may be at the "Secret" fib
percent retracement which is revealed by a trainer in one of his
seminars. It just so happens that this number is probably 89%
so if it is then we may be in for another decline.


Check this link:
http://goldennumber.net/Number89.htm


Paul
 

bracke

Experienced member
The NASDAQ is trading above 38x earnings an extremely high valuation. History and logic tell us that this is unsustainable people buying shares at these levels will have to wait 38 years to get their money back!

Are we to believe that profits will rise dramatically to justify these levels or are we entering a new era when investors will take a very long view of their investments - they haven't before.

The thought that the NASDAQ will continue on an ever upward course seems to defy logic and gravity.

Regards

bracke
 

tradesmart

Experienced member
Interesting article on the secret fibs Trader333! – imho general fibs can only ever be a guide, but they seem to work as traders all over the world trade to them……similarly trendlines/flags/ma’s etc – all the general chart signals – they only work because so many traders are influenced by them…

As bracke says – the valuation of the tech shares is highly questionable, but it is evident that there is more than one way of calculating valuation – it can come down to if you’re a pessimist they’re overvalued, and if you’re an optimist they’re undervalued.

At the moment investors appear to believe that the market can move higher in the improved US economic climate, and that tech shares will achieve the greatest price appreciation, which is creating its own bullish momentum (not quite at the “irrational exuberance” levels of 99-2000 yet….!)

But inevitably there will be corrections on the way……
 

dsmodi

Established member
Trader333

please excuse my ignorance but can you explain the 89% retracement.... i don't need an explanation on where the number 89 comes from, just this percentage retracement. A chart image would be useful if it's not too much bother....

many thanks....
 

Trader333

Moderator
dsmodi,

I dont actually use it and was just giving an example of the fact
that there are other fib retracement numbers apart from the
obvious ones which is why I gave the link.

I would think it isnt too difficult to work out if you have seen
other fib retracements and how they plot out.


Paul
 

dsmodi

Established member
t333

Sure, but what are the retracement extremes to measure from? From what I've put together, there isn't a 89% retracement anywhere, which is why I asked for chart. I must be missing something, but i don't know what (ok - i know i'm missing much grey matter, but let's not get personal... ;) )
 

Trader333

Moderator
dsmodi,

From what I've put together, there isn't a 89% retracement anywhere......

Yes well that is because it is supposedly secret according to the
trainer of a particular seminar. (Which I dont believe for a second)

I dont understand what you mean by your other comments ? Just
take a high and low point in a chart and for example if the chart is
rising and starts to retrace then calculate the 89% retracement
as follows:

(High - Low) x 0.89 + Low

This will give you a value for an 89% retracement.

As I said I dont use them and was just commenting on what had
previously been said.


Paul
 

dsmodi

Established member
t333,

after your last post above, i re-read your earlier post differently and now understand what u mean. Initially, I thought u were saying it has reached a 89% retracement....confusion sorted.,. cheers
 

adrianallen99

Established member
Nasdaq showing signs of weakness today.
 

mik1973

Well-known member
Could someone please explain the difference between Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq composite. Finspreads only seem to offer prices on the 100 whereas Sharescope display prices on the composite. Makes things a bit confusing.
Thanks,
Mick
 

Trader333

Moderator
Nasdaq 100 is made up of the top 100 stocks in the Nasdaq (similar to FTSE100)

Nasdaq Composite is made up of all Nasdaq Stocks similar to FTSE All Share


Paul
 

Pepper

Junior member
Nasdaq analytical forecast

Stock market prediction provided by e-MasterTrade.com

According to e-MasterTrade analytical forecast on Thursday, February 12, 2004 Nasdaq will vary 2065.33-2116.60 and close at 2067.74-2111.48.

L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL) quotation will vary 54.71-56.56 and close at 55.06-56.18. Win 13 cents a share!!! Buy 55.53, short 55.66!

Nasdaq and LLL Price Forecast: Market News
Thursday, February 12, 2004

Stocks extended trading session with a gain after Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan speech in Congress. Greenspan said that the economy had turned toward vigorous growth, while inflation stayed low.

The blue chips Dow Jones industrial average rose 123.85 points (1.17%), at 10,737.70. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 12.22 points (1.07%), at 1,157.76. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index added 14.33 points (0.69%), at 2,089.66.
Trading was active, about 1.7 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange and about 2.2 billion shares were traded on Nasdaq.

The most active companies were Comcast Special (-2.84), Comcast (-2.70), SIRI (-0.01), Cisco Systems (-0.54), Sun Microsystems (+0.20), Walt Disney (+3.52), Lucent tech (+0.01), AWE (+0.25), Nortel networks (+0.25).

According to e-MasterTrade analytical forecast on Thursday, February 12, 2004 Nasdaq will vary 2065.33-2116.60 and close at 2067.74-2111.48.

L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. (LLL) quotation will vary 54.71-56.56 and close at 55.06-56.18. Win 13 cents a share!!! Buy 55.53, short 55.66!


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