my journal

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Moved stoploss up to almost breakeven... all changes to my system... but i feel confident
 
Hey, the move failed, and i closed it early at a 50 dollars loss.

I sucked because i took the signal, but I am good because i was able, psychologically to exit early.

I don't have to 2000 dollars each time I make a mistake... i don't have to lose 2000 dollars before admitting i made a mistake.

Just like in life, i should never hesitate to admit i made a mistake.

Hey, I said the market would go up and instead it went down.
 
Losing 250 dollars on one trade should really be the worst accident that could happen during my trade: not the regular expected loss. I should learn to exit as soon as my signal has failed. Like when it recrosses the fast moving average in the opposite direction.
 
Well, 3 bar patterns as a matter of fact also are used in some circumstances. My mentor sometimes calls 5 bar patterns "swing points" and 3 bar patterns "half swingpoints".

Anyway, I suggest that the rationale is that 5 bar patterns carry more weight (are more statistically significant I suppose) than 3 bar patterns, at least as far as I understand things. Part of it probably is simply that 5 bar patterns are naturally going to be less frequent than 3 bar patterns. Having more signals (by using 3 bars) may mean you have more false signals to cope with, and 5 bars has perhaps been found to be the best general balance, not generating to much signals, but not too few.

It's like the waves on the sea. Most waves are common, shallow affairs, from which it's hard to discern the trend of the tide, but every so often you get a bigger wave that gives pushes further out. Such waves carry more importance in terms of reading the movement of the tide/sea.

As for using different numbers of bars (7 bar patterns? 9 bar patterns?) You should of course do your own experiments ("take ownership of your trading", as I was told, and indeed this is what you do) but it's probably a good idea to at least try out what works for others before starting to test alternatives.

Thanks for the further information on your method for discerning trend from range.
 
OK, but bear in mind I'm as much a student here still as you are. Indeed in most ways you are ahead of me. I don't want to be seen to be the teacher/expert on everything "Bill Williams". That, I'm not. (In other words, I have no desire to reach further audiences or compete with academics.)

Also, just to clarify as for the actual mechanics I tried to explain previously -- the MA's are used to determine sideways/trending state. Then together with 5 bar patterns determine possible entry points. The 5 bar patterns by themselves do not in and of themself determine the trend. I understand this is a bit vague but I'm trying to avoid having to rewrite a book here (which I have no interest in) to get concepts across. You were originally asking for suggestions for keeping you out of the market when it's going sideways and I made some. I'm hoping you'll go take a shower or a bath and come up with your own creative use of these suggestions (as you often do) and/or pick up some of the details about these ideas from the original author which we can then discuss as peers, rather than getting all of them from me, a fellow student of the markets.

Nevertheless, I'll try and help with a pictures or such to help explain my own understanding of these ideas (but perhaps tomorrow, it's late now and I have the dreaded weekly IT meeting tomorrow first thing.)

Edit: By the way, you mentioned English is not your first language, so let me congratulate you. Your English is excellent. I would say, your English is better than many Briton's command of their own language. (As an aside, English is technically also not my first language, as I'm originally from South Africa, although I'm pretty much bilingual. Aangename kennis Travis, goed om jou te ontmoet! :) That's a bit of Afrikaans, my native tongue.)

Many thanks... for these undeserved compliments. Now I may actually get insecure because I'll have to live up to the expectations. Let's just say that I write English better than most Italians, rather than the British.
 
That bit me in the butt today as well. News... That and the fact that I was trading against the trend...

71822d1261048269-my-journal-trendfriend.jpg


I'm sure you've seen this before... but I was that guy again tonight...

Good picture to represent what I've been doing for 12 years.
 
Travis -

A couple of questions... do you not normally take pictures of your trades when you are not logging in the T2W trading journal? That kind of boggles my mind. Probably because I go back and look at them often to remind myself of what a certain pattern looked like exactly, or whatever.

How is it coming with your money management planning? Have you made any decisions about how you are going to approach that area? Or... did it get tossed completely for gambling? I hope not!

I also wanted to say your English is very good!

In reading your journal for only the past 15 - 20 pages or so, I have had a lot of thoughts about my own trading fiasco today. Where I went wrong in the first place and been questioning some of my recent decisions. I must go and think about them.

Correct. All my trading outside of this journal has never been very serious, just pure gambling. So I never took any pictures of my trades before I started this journal. Except when I wanted to take pictures of huge losses, like sometimes 4000 dollars or once 6000 more or less. But no, I didn't take pictures on a regular basis. Also don't forget that I do automated trading, and as far as that I record everything (I now have a forward testing database of about 5 months, and therefore about 1000 trades: about 50 trades per week times 20 weeks).

Thanks for reading so much of my journal. Don't forget to recommend the posts you like and tell me why, so I can write more interesting stuff in the future.
 
New top and bottom picking system created

In light of today's trades, that I qualified as "gambling", I will create a new system so such trades will not be gambling next time:

HOTKEYS
"B" for "buy 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order
"S" for "sell 1 at market" with 20 ticks bracket order
"C" for "close position"
----------------------
CHARTS
SET UP THESE CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
1 DAY OF 1-minute ES, CL, GBP "line" mode with their 225-period slow moving averages
2 DAYS OF EUR.USD@IDEALPRO 15-minutes CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF EUR.USD@IDEALPRO 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods and 210-periods moving averages
----------------------
PRO-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
RULES
ENTRIES can be made if:
1) you sense trend (high volume/range, no news wait, touched >= 2 pivot lines, correlated all above/below their mas)
2) time is 15.00 to 20.00 CET
3) your entry and your take profit are > 10 ticks away from any pivot lines or any 0.0100s levels if beyond S2 or R2
4) you're checking "correlated" chart for exact timing of entry
5) the 225-period ma is in favor by > 10 ticks
6) the 15-period ma gets crossed by price (in favor) after being on the other side >= 4 minutes
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks.
Early exit if you feel your move has either failed or exhausted its momentum before reaching takeprofit.
----------------------
COUNTER-TREND DISCRETIONARY SYSTEM
RULES
ENTRIES can be made if:
1) time is > 17.30 CET
2) daily change > 200 ticks
3) Price is < S2 or > R2
4) Price crosses above/below fast ma above/below any 0.0100s level that hasn't been violated by more than 10 ticks.
EXITS
Bracket order of 20 ticks.
Early exit if you feel your move has either failed or exhausted its momentum before reaching takeprofit.
 
I do not like to be called "weird". Weird sounds like someone is finding you different from the norm, and is not willing to understand you. It sounds like you're being blamed for not making an effort to conform to how others behave. It's to me one of the worst insults. It tells me I am... let's look it up:

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/weird

Well, it is not necessarily an insult. But it can be meant as an insult, as "you're different and I am not accepting you because of it".

This is terrible if you've always wanted to think independently and have always mistrusted the crowd. If you're anticonformist you're basically "weird" by definition. It really bothers me to be called "weird".

It's like telling me: you haven't done your job in conforming, bad boy. You haven't subdued your differences and evened out yourself to look and speak like everyone else. It's close to racism, to call people "weird".

I remember when I was in college, I'd be talking to some blond girl met at the library or the campus center and after a few minutes I'd get her to tell me "you're weird", actually simply by being myself. That was like the confirmation I was looking for to complete my appraisal of her as "stupid".

If she didn't say it, then I could become quite relaxed, after realizing that she accepted me no matter what I said. After realizing that I was free to speak and think as I wanted.

In the last few days, I've been wondering about this journal that felt so good to write.

It's definitely a "trading journal", by all means. But it's also definitely a regular "journal" by all means. So am I allowed to write here that non-trading part?

Many people seem to appreciate it and find it interesting. Others are annoyed.

So far so good. But the question is: am I allowed to write that non-trading part here?

It feels good to write that part, and to some it feels good to read it. But am I allowed to write it, since no one else does it to such an extent?

I don't know. Are you allowed to do something that no one else does?

It reminds me of that Einstein quote...

Everybody knows that something can't be done, and then somebody turns up and he doesn't know it can't be done and he does it.

I guess quoting is ok as a way of expressing your opinion, but expressing your opinion, if it's original, can get you in trouble. You have to first write something "weird", then become famous and then die. And then it's ok to say whatever you want. And people will quote you, and feel brilliant. But if you say it while you're alive, and you're not famous, then you're just "weird".

He was talking about some invention. But I am applying it to something forbidden. I am not inventing anything. So his quote is not complete for me: "...he doesn't know it can't be done and he does it". He does it and then? Does he get punished or what?

Actually, usually my case is different: I know it can't be done and that's why I do it, to break whatever rule or non-spoken rule there is.

But maybe I could also mean it in the sense of inventing something. I've invented the non-boring trading journal. A journal that is not as appealing as a phone book. With just a list of trades. Entered here, exited there, which to someone who's not following closely is like reading a phone book. Why should we call them even "journals" then, and not just "lists of trades"?

But the question still resounds in my mind: am I allowed to write original thoughts even without being famous, or do I have to become famous first and maybe even die in the process? And become fashionable so the blond girl will quote me, once I am dead, but call someone else "weird" because he says something original without having the approval for being original and saying something other than "it's sunny outside" or quoting einstein.

I'm exaggerating as usual. The world is not that crowded with people ready to call you "weird" every few seconds. But maybe they are ready to think that way.

Yes, maybe people are so afraid of saying something original that even saying "you're weird" is too dangerous to say and they won't dare to express that thought.

It reminds me of that Monty Python movie, where they made fun of the middle ages people ready to burn a witch whenever they got a chance. Yeah, that's similar with "weird". Oh, he's weird, let's isolate him... let's stay away from him... there's us and then there's him, the weird guy...

The question is... is this place getting too weird to write regular phone books, or is this place getting too interesting for any readers to bother reading any phone books any more? Yeah, because "interesting" is the opposite of "weird", and it's what I say when I find something different: "I don't understand you and I am curious to know what you are thinking".

 
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It's definitely a "trading journal", by all means. But it's also definitely a regular "journal" by all means. So am I allowed to write here that non-trading part?

Many people seem to appreciate it and find it interesting. Others are annoyed.

So far so good. But the question is: am I allowed to write that non-trading part here?

Travis - I think you have a thoughtful post here. I am new to T2W and have not read to many other people's journals. I have read one other and it was in my mind, boring, because the few pages just had the bare facts. No analysis at all, so I had no idea what got him/her into the trade or anything. Just where the trade executed.

I have found when you post your stuff, since I do not understand your system at all, I at least feel like I can see that you are making some efforts to do analysis. You talk about your rules, when you change your rules, and you talk about yourself.

I, for one, appreciate that there is a person behind the journal entries.

So, without any ability to tell you if you are allowed, I can at least vote for the ability to write what you want in your own journal. I think it is meant for your improvement and satisfaction as a trader.

If someone else is annoyed by it, they don't have to read it. Or maybe that is another rule I missed... every person must read every other post by every other person in the forum... um... kinda doubt that rule exists!

I hope you decide to stay here and be yourself. Just my vote.
Tai
 
Travis - I think you have a thoughtful post here. I am new to T2W and have not read to many other people's journals. I have read one other and it was in my mind, boring, because the few pages just had the bare facts. No analysis at all, so I had no idea what got him/her into the trade or anything. Just where the trade executed.

I have found when you post your stuff, since I do not understand your system at all, I at least feel like I can see that you are making some efforts to do analysis. You talk about your rules, when you change your rules, and you talk about yourself.

I, for one, appreciate that there is a person behind the journal entries.

So, without any ability to tell you if you are allowed, I can at least vote for the ability to write what you want in your own journal. I think it is meant for your improvement and satisfaction as a trader.

If someone else is annoyed by it, they don't have to read it. Or maybe that is another rule I missed... every person must read every other post by every other person in the forum... um... kinda doubt that rule exists!

I hope you decide to stay here and be yourself. Just my vote.
Tai

:D Someone will always be annoyed about something anyone says, no matter, but I always look in on this thread to see what Travis is up to. I second your hope.

Split
 
Oh ****... What have I done!? Apologies! What kind of a stupid **** am I!? I thought someone else was talking about me and maybe I was wrong... now I don't have the courage to go back on the journal and apologize properly. Or maybe I wasn't wrong. Really hard call. Next time I should just postpone getting upset by a whole week. I will answer the above posts in a few hours (thanks for the feedback), once I'll have evaluated whether to go to work (and have gone and come back) or whether to go back to sleep (and have slept and woken up again). Damn...
 
I am quite frustrated today because of the way I interact with people. I am sensitive and so whichever direction I look, I get offended. I get offended in a forum, riding a cab, talking to my dad, talking to my mom, interacting with a woman I like, with my boss, with my colleagues, if an unknown person looks at me... I get offended several times a day. And I hold a grudge about every little offense for days and days. With my dad, I hold my grudges for decades about things he told me.

After getting up I didn't go back to sleep but went to work, and sure enough my boss instead of thanking me for showing up, was probably resented because I went late. Which is not intelligent, because next time instead of going late, I'll be encouraged to call in sick. He's a negative asshole like my dad and these people cause misfortunes simply by interpreting events in a negative way. Simply by putting people down.

Next year I'll have part-time hours from 9 to 3.30 PM. I had asked until 2.30 PM, but they said it was too much. However, the good thing about part-time is that helps me get along better with my colleagues, especially after 3.30.

Today I traded. The gold trade went well (it was almost 50 points down and I expected an overnight bounce of at least 20%, which happened). But as I came home, on the EUR, even though I ended up making 200, and bring my capital to 7500 dollars, I resumed gambling, and that is bad because today I made 200 but I could have lost 2000, as usual when I gamble. And these gambles are usually profitable by a few hundreds, but definitely they don't work because before my tenth trade, I will make that -2000 dollars trade.

I pinned it down to this: I make a trade and I am in control, and confident the market will go a given way. Then - having allowed early exits - I see price hesitate, and I exit early, and lose 50. Then I enter the other way: it hesitates again, and I say "ok, after all I knew it was going the other way to begin with". Then I get in the other way and it hesitates again. After getting in and out 4 times, each time in opposite directions, each time losing 50 dollars, I am so upset that I am ready to bet the farm on my fifth trade, no matter what it will do.

So I've got to limit my trades. The sniper shot was meant to keep me calm and make me ponder very very carefully a trade, like a sniper with his shot. I abolished it, and I am leaning towards gambling again.

The journal was meant to put thinking and time between trades, but I abolished it because it was tiring, and now making a trade is so easy that I make too many of them again.

The only good thing in all my recent changes is the early exit. If you see your move fail, you should exit early. However, you should not re-enter in the opposite direction a second later. That usually happens because gambling got into you. The early exit is a good thing in itself, but it injects a gambling fever into your system, because it gives you the chance to pull that trigger repeatedly, and that gets addictive, and a lot of other negative consequences, due basically to costs of slippage and commissions, because otherwise gambling would not exist: we'd be entering and exiting every few seconds and rightly so, if we didn't have to worry about spread and commission costs.

Trading the way I trade is like continuously flpping channels with your remote control, trying to find a program you like, but never allowing any programs to show their potential. You spend an hour and you remember nothing of all the channels you've watched for 5 seconds at a time. Few people do this, and I am one of them. I would bet that those people flipping channels on the remote control without ever finding one they like, are people who, as traders, would act as compulsive gamblers. If you want to know if a person will NOT be a good trader, let them sit in front of the tv with a remote control and see how often they change channels, and that will be how often they will want to trade. Are they getting anything out of they're watching on tv? No, just compulsive channels flipping. Probably they wouldn't get any profit out of their trades either. But then if they never changed the channel, maybe these are people who don't cut their losses, so maybe that's not so good either. Maybe the best trader would be someone who goes all the way to the store and rent an ancient black and white film. Maybe that would be a good trader. Someone who goes after some objective, does his research, and then, after days of efforts, watches his one movie. Much like the sniper trader I wanted and still want to be.

Yeah, because all you need is one good trade per day. You don't need to make 9 trades of which 5 will be good and four bad, like I did today, by increasing the risk of losing control and making that -2000 dollars trade. You just need 1 "in control" trade. Monday I will list my new rules regarding that new method that should protect me from over-trading but without removing the early exit option.

As i said before, I don't only have a problem with getting addicted to flipping the remote control, or clicking the buy button on my trading platform. I am addicting to "befriending" the readers. That's why I have over 100 friends, not because I am popular. I get addicted to... everything. I keep on checking the views on my journal... I didn't go to a psychiatrist to be charged a few hundreds dollars and be told what the cause of this might be. I am going to guess it's because my dad kept on injecting anxiety into my system, throughout my life. And i've said this before as well, on how he's incessantly said to me and my mom "did you check this", "you got the keys?", "what time does the train leave?", "you know how many people live in this city?", "you know this useless notion?", "can I ask you any more uselss and stressful questions because I can't stop talking and I am nervous?". Not the last two questions... those were summaries of what he asked us and maybe why.

Oh, but he's a great man. Because he succeeded in life. So it doesn't matter that he's a sick maniac, because all the relatives and people who know him will speak greatly of him. "Your dad...", "he", "him". I suppose some people instead of fixing their behaviour rather work their asses off to become successful and be able to stay sick, so people will forgive them their sickness. I think that's what I embarked on as well. I set out to stay antisocial and intolerant, but I want to make money so I will be able to "buy" the perfect environment for my sickness. To some extent I already do this by paying for everyone's dinner, so I can choose where to eat, and when to go, and control the situation. I can choose what day, what time and what place. And people are even willing to let me be the leader of the whole deal. People are willing to accept your unfair conditions if you're paying for dinner.

So, now I'll answer the posts above.

How do you determine if the move has failed or the trend is exhausted?

Well, basically, don't make me start from pre-history. I explained my pro-trend system in about 40 posts, please refer to that. What I need to add is this: after the fast moving average gets crossed momentum is very much in favor of your trade, and if that momentum fails and you get some red 1 minute candles (if you were LONG), then you should be ok with getting out. Basically a good trade crosses the fast average and takes off, and doesn't recross the average in the opposite direction. It just takes off and reaches your takeprofit. Or if momentum slows down early (even after it did take off), then you should exit at 15 ticks of gain instead of the regular 20 ticks. That's why early exits are not renounceable: because there's plenty of situations where you can't get exactly the optimum 20 ticks. But 20 ticks is there because in most cases you can count on them.

Were you trying to change your system during this trade? Or were you trying to change your system to justify the trade?

Yeah, what I said there was that I was getting many ideas about changing my system, but yes I was changing during a trade, which by the way is what I was lecturing you not to do when I was on your journal. Pretty funny.

Travis - I think you have a thoughtful post here. I am new to T2W and have not read to many other people's journals. I have read one other and it was in my mind, boring, because the few pages just had the bare facts. No analysis at all, so I had no idea what got him/her into the trade or anything. Just where the trade executed.

I have found when you post your stuff, since I do not understand your system at all, I at least feel like I can see that you are making some efforts to do analysis. You talk about your rules, when you change your rules, and you talk about yourself.

I, for one, appreciate that there is a person behind the journal entries.

So, without any ability to tell you if you are allowed, I can at least vote for the ability to write what you want in your own journal. I think it is meant for your improvement and satisfaction as a trader.

If someone else is annoyed by it, they don't have to read it. Or maybe that is another rule I missed... every person must read every other post by every other person in the forum... um... kinda doubt that rule exists!

I hope you decide to stay here and be yourself. Just my vote.
Tai

Yes, I'll stay. Thanks for the support and feedback.

:D Someone will always be annoyed about something anyone says, no matter, but I always look in on this thread to see what Travis is up to. I second your hope.

Split

Yes, I'll keep writing. Thanks for the feedback and support.
 
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Thinking about systems, capital, and more

Right now I feel that I don't want to go to sleep. I'll try writing to see what comes out of my head. Maybe something good. Even though I don't have a plan, except that I'll talk about systems and about the future of my capital.

I remember all the months of this year how I have taken up that notebook sitting near the bath tub and have made forecast of my equity. And each time I was planning to make it double in a month, and it rarely happened, but when it happened, I was always saying: ok, this month I doubled, so in 8 months I'll have a millions dollars.
10k
20
40
80
160
320
640
1 million

That's what I've done for the past few years. Actually to tell you the truth i started this doubling mania in 1997, ever since I started trading. And ever since then I've been thinking and saying "in a year I'll have a million".

Maybe that is what partly made me gamble. The built-in belief that I must have doubled each month.
 
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