My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

[FXX]

not liking the price action and lack of momentum - closed for 14 pips

looks like price finally followed through on this. Entered long again @1.15859

I know there probably isn't much meat on the bone at this level (i would still be in it if price action wasn't messing around as it has for the last few hours). Looking to get to 1.1617 area if possible

 

[Lee Shepherd]

looks like price finally followed through on this. Entered long again @1.15859

I know there probably isn't much meat on the bone at this level (i would still be in it if price action wasn't messing around as it has for the last few hours). Looking to get to 1.1617 area if possible

Hey mate, it’s all looking good.

What would have been your result had you of held the original long? Ignoring price action for the moment and any and all other factors.

 

[FXX]

looks like price finally followed through on this. Entered long again @1.15859

I know there probably isn't much meat on the bone at this level (i would still be in it if price action wasn't messing around as it has for the last few hours). Looking to get to 1.1617 area if possible

okay so no meat left... frustrating day as it should have been a 40 pip winner but lost my nerve with price action then jumped back in at the top for a 10 pip loss making today a glorious 4 pip profit day. Done for the day

 

[NVP]

news is important in trading ....and i agree that sometimes seeing what a currency or related pair group DOES NOT do in relation to relevant news opens up some serious trading opportunities regarding its behaviour

great stuff
N

 

[FXX]

Hey mate, it’s all looking good.

What would have been your result had you of held the original long? Ignoring price action for the moment and any and all other factors.

hey Lee, would have been 40 pips if i had held.

 

[NVP]

okay so no meat left... frustrating day as it should have been a 40 pip winner but lost my nerve with price action then jumped back in at the top for a 10 pip loss making today a glorious 4 pip profit day. Done for the day

usd has been mainly bull today so EU buys were always going to be hard ....agreed its been a difficult morning on G8's ...i only really got a little out of cable buys much much later in morning into lunch from 3170's into 3190's

N

 

[FXX]

usd has been mainly bull today so EU buys were always going to be hard ....agreed its been a difficult morning on G8's ...i only really got a little out of cable buys much much later in morning into lunch from 3170's into 3190's

N

It has certainly been a tricky day. Only 1 opportunity for me and i managed to stuff it up in good fashion. I should have stood back seeing price action after that new event although i did call the dump pump outcome - perhaps price action took the market back a bit and set the scene for me to get out (who knows).

I still think the trade policy of exiting if price isn't doing what i want is a good one even though it failed me today.

 

[FXX]

I'll be out at a big data event tomorrow so will be looking out for BOE and SNB events on mobile. Been mulling over my day and the believe I made a mistake taking that last trade today. The first one was spot on in my trade plan so taking a small profit was all good. That last trade however needs to be avoided going forward.

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[FXX]

Juat catching up on markets as it is difficult to do so at a seminar. What an opportunity today has given and I wasn't able to take advantage of any of it. Italy concerns affecting sentiment and driving the euro lower. Hope some of you have made ching off of it.

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[FXX]

Another beauty I missed, the voting spread for BOE. I might as well write off todays trading but what a whopper. I would have been smiling today after yesterday's outcome.

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[FXX]

Soft US manufacturing has turned things on its head. To be fair I think the market has been looking for an excuse to sell the dollar as it has pretty much priced in the existing data. Manufacturing printed a massive deviation to the downside and the market reacted. I bet there were plenty of technical traders caught on the wrong side of this. The reaction to the data is the most interesting because its not exactly a tier 1 data point. Going back to things being priced in for the dollar is where the the value in the trade was. Really wish I had been off yesterday, you all having all the joy today.

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[FXX]

Check out this story

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018...ive-account-builds-5bn-futures-position-makes

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[FXX]

Just took 20 pips from French and German service PMI beats (any excuse to sell the dollar at the moment). Not much else on the cal except CAD inflation and open meetings so will look to trade those if an opportunity comes up.


I have to say that Eikon does a great job at releasing the numbers fast. They additionally have this flag that is set when a data point beats expectations to the upside or downside. This definitely helps when looking to trade deviations. It is value for money and only costs $99 per month for the FX subscription. If you want to trade releases but can't afford this then look at tradingeconomics.com. They aren't nearly as fast but a heck of a lot faster than sites like forexfactory. I have successfully used it in the past like this with a delay of 1-5 seconds.But don't use their calendar as this is slower. Setup the notifications using a browser like chrome

 

[FXX]

The chart that shows how fundamentals drives price

This is just one of any chart i could pull up - randomly chosen. To show how news events drives price. If there was any doubt let this rest the case. If you are not using news in your trading then sit back for a moment and take this in and decide if it should be.

I placed the green vertical lines there to line up news that has driven price. This is a tradingview chart where they have an awesome economic data indicator overlapped on the chart for data points affecting each economy in the pair

 

[barjon]

This is just one of any chart i could pull up - randomly chosen. To show how news events drives price. If there was any doubt let this rest the case. If you are not using news in your trading then sit back for a moment and take this in and decide if it should be.

I placed the green vertical lines there to line up news that has driven price. This is a tradingview chart where they have an awesome economic data indicator overlapped on the chart for data points affecting each economy in the pair

I don’t think anyone would dispute what you say, fxx. Surely the argument from the TA side is that the trading opportunities would arise from the price action itself even though that action may well have been driven by the news.

 

[FXX]

I don’t think anyone would dispute what you say, fxx. Surely the argument from the TA side is that the trading opportunities would arise from the price action itself even though that action may well have been driven by the news.

Hi barjon

You may be right. I couldn't get it to work and having seen studies on this it is very clear most are in the same boat. I also seen stats of technical traders with profitable accounts but never had any insight into their approach. What I can say for sure through my own experiences is the difficulty of filtering out the inevitable losers. This property of technical trading is without question the hardest to solve. Trading how I do now does a very good job of keeping me out of what would be an inevitable loser. This really is the message I want to convey with that chart.

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[swissy]

Hi FXX, quick question if I may....how do you place your stops trading the news? Mental or physical... interested because I often watch markets actively going both ways.. just before release and after. Easy to get stopped out even if you are correct in the overall direction. Tricky.....

 

[FXX]

Hi FXX, quick question if I may....how do you place your stops trading the news? Mental or physical... interested because I often watch markets actively going both ways.. just before release and after. Easy to get stopped out even if you are correct in the overall direction. Tricky.....

Hi swissy

My hard stop is 20 pips on all news trades but it is rarely hit as I would have manually closed before. I am looking for 2 types of price action. The first is a strong reaction with long price bars and no retrace only congestion before continuing. This is my preferred opportunity because I am generally in and out within 10 minutes. The second type is a gradual price step where you get retraces. This tends to be off weaker news or in between other news events. With this profile I will get my stop to break even as soon as I have 15 pips in my favour. I don't like being in for too long as sentiment can change in a blink.

Sometimes price can react in both directions as you have noticed and these can be very profitable. If price isn't behaving as you expect the safest course of action is stepping aside. That being said if you know your fundamentals it will be crystal clear the opportunity is still there but at a better price point. This is a pump and dump or dump and pump scenario. To me it's big players looking for liquidity and this is where technical becomes important to get in at the right level with as little risk as possible. These can be tricky but also profitable. Same 20 pip stop applies here.




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[swissy]

Hi swissy

My hard stop is 20 pips on all news trades but it is rarely hit as I would have manually closed before. I am looking for 2 types of price action. The first is a strong reaction with long price bars and no retrace only congestion before continuing. This is my preferred opportunity because I am generally in and out within 10 minutes. The second type is a gradual price step where you get retraces. This tends to be off weaker news or in between other news events. With this profile I will get my stop to break even as soon as I have 15 pips in my favour. I don't like being in for too long as sentiment can change in a blink.

Sometimes price can react in both directions as you have noticed and these can be very profitable. If price isn't behaving as you expect the safest course of action is stepping aside. That being said if you know your fundamentals it will be crystal clear the opportunity is still there but at a better price point. This is a pump and dump or dump and pump scenario. To me it's big players looking for liquidity and this is where technical becomes important to get in at the right level with as little risk as possible. These can be tricky but also profitable. Same 20 pip stop applies here.




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Thank you for answering.. interesting insights and I like the blended approach to the trade. Do you trade in anticipation of the news or off the reaction? 20 pip hard stop is impressive given the volatility that often accompanies these events. Nimble fingers required!

 

[FXX]

Thank you for answering.. interesting insights and I like the blended approach to the trade. Do you trade in anticipation of the news or off the reaction? 20 pip hard stop is impressive given the volatility that often accompanies these events. Nimble fingers required!

I do both, but more so in reaction to an event. I will trade into an event when the fundamental picture aligns with sentiment leading into an event. The volatility in these events should be in your favour if you have done your homework and pair strongest with weakest. The key to being successful besides the required homework is not being greedy. Targets should sit comfortably within the average daily range and you want to get there and get out. i do have a portion of trades that never reach my target because i have closed for a small profit. if the market isn't pricing in as you expect then don't wait around because the opportunity has come and gone. My whole trading approach focuses on market reaction to new information. Time in markets = greater risk and hanging about leaves you wide open for sentiment to go against you. There are traders that swing trade these events successfully using them as triggers for trades lasting several sessions. Maybe if that approach suits you more give it a go. for me time is a commodity that i would rather spend on multiple smaller opportunities than a few larger ones.