I missed a nice trade on GBPAUD post GDP but to be fair i wasn't all too interested in it which really isn't great since the sentiment opportunity was right there for the taking.I am actually on the same page as you. The prospect of a deviation on GDP is slim. I will watch the release and see what it might bring but I don't think there will be any surprises.
I agree the opportunity will be with BOC later in the day or night in my case i.e. 1 am. I am reluctant to stay up for that. OIS data suggest that the probability of a hike in November is 18 % given what happened with retail sales last Friday. Should it be a surprise it would be a 200 - 400 pips move. The nugget will be in their statement and I am not good at interpreting changes in key words. Your Ransquawk will come in handy.
With the market anything can happen. A supposedly non event turned out to be far from it. I guess just go with the flow. Picked up 36 pips on the GBPUSD and 50 pips on the GBPJPY. The market reaction is far more than the GDP print in my view. Reuters is suggesting that November hike is back on the agenda.I missed a nice trade on GBPAUD post GDP but to be fair i wasn't all too interested in it which really isn't great since the sentiment opportunity was right there for the taking.
Decided to take 28 pips profit and look to getting back in on a retracelong USDCAD @1.27378 on statement with more of a cautionary tone towards future hikes. USA data printed better than expected durable goods and a smasher housing print. Looking to target short of the prev swing low at 1.28499 or sooner depending on where the trade is later in the day (sentiment trade that will dominate the session)
Are you getting that data from eikon or somewhere else? I really need to get back onto that terminal. Ransquawk is brilliant but there are bits like this and economic releases (txt faster than squawk but squawk better at analysis and commentary). I see they discontinued my favourite econ screen which was noticeably faster than the economy tracker replacement.With the BOC statement, the probability of a rate hike this year is less than 30 % according to the overnight index swaps market.
It was from a Reuters report. My subscription is to FX only,not the full suite. I agree Elkon has its usefulness but so is Ransquawk.Are you getting that data from eikon or somewhere else?
I believe it was 48 % before the BOC statement and now is less than 30 %.Anyway it is definitely looking slim at the moment for Cad hike. Price is holding steady and I am looking to get back in on a retrace for another run at the high.
I will do the research today on how I might trade ECB. I think the market focus seems to be on the size of the tapering and duration. The range is 40 to 20 Billion Euro.You have any thoughts on the ecb tomorrow? I will be looking at any dovish tone that kicks a rate hike ball further down the road. There was a comment today from the ecb about them extending the tapering at the same amount with the usual keeping it open until further notice theme.
That explains the drop. I got out of my USDJPY trade last night on the spike. With hindsight it looks like I got out at the top.In other news i see North Korea have again threatened an above Pacific nuke test stating its going to happen. That's going to be a huge risk off event and I am probably going to split a trade between yen and swissy just in case yen underperforms due to its location to NK
Fundamentals and Technical is the way to go. I am confident you will meet yourgoal.Account is growing, some way to go still until I can pump the account with more capital but seems to be headed in the right direction.