My black swan betfair journal

[arabianights]

An occasional journal in which I'll post betfair trades aiming to capture black swan events. My main betfair interest is political betting.

Trade 1

Aim: Capture misfortune occurring to one of the presidential candidates (or to Mr. Bush) before next president is sworn in.

Method: Lay McCain and Obama. Additionally, back Biden, Palin, Clinton, Romney and Cheney as by far the most likely candidates to become presidents in chance of misfortune.

Execution:

I didn't back Hiliary because I hate her.


Back:

(Average odds, stake, payout)

Joseph Biden
348.14 £11.85£4,113.55

Sarah Palin
482.44 £8.55 £4,116.35

Mitt Romney
1000 £4.00 £3,996.00

Dick Cheney
1000 £4.00 £28.40 £3,996.00

Lay:

(Average odds, stake, liability)

Barack Obama
1.19 £129.42 £24.59

John McCain
6.96 £22.13 £151.55 £131.88

Translation:

If McCain or Obama become president, then I have a net loss of £30.86

If either Palin, Biden, Romney or Cheney become president then I have a gain of approximately £4000.

If anyone else becomes the next president then I will have a gain of £116.99

Stupid mistake:

Despite the name of the market, having just checked this more carefully while writing this thread I see the following:

Rule Clarification: 31st January 08, 12:30pm: For the avoidance of doubt, this market will be settled on the result of the next US Presidential election

Making this a very stupid bit of trading. But I started typing this, so I'll finish...

 

[shadowninja]

I didn't back Hiliary because I hate her. But I do dream of her with Palin, wearing bikinis, wrestling in a pool of jelly.

EFA

Sorry to hijack your journal. *runs*

 

[Gumping]

Method: Lay McCain and Obama.

You do that - and I'll lay Palin

 

[shadowninja]

 

[arabianights]

You do that - and I'll lay Palin

Ooooh... you are awful

 

[arabianights]

EFA

Sorry to hijack your journal. *runs*

No comment

 

[arabianights]

Ok... next move - I've bet on mccain (after odds shifted worse against him tonight after Powell's comments) - now I'll make 8 pence if he wins. Other wins are slightly affected but not by much

(I'll lose £35.28 if obama wins - which is surely most likely but that was never my point )

 

[MrGecko]

I, arabianights of 29 Acacia Road, London, am going to assassinate one of the leading Presidential candidates in order to secure a profit on my geo-political arbitrage trading strategy

Let's see how sharp these CIA boys are... do you reckon they will figure out which one?

Also, WTF is up with your signature? Are you afriad of getting someone pregnant or something?

 

[arabianights]

For the interests of rounding... I've now squared up McCain such that if he wins I will get £103.58... very similar to the £103.51 I'll be getting from the candidates not mentioned before after that round.

If Obama wins I'll lose £50.50... Starting to look a fairly bad set of decisions all around

 

[arabianights]

Also, WTF is up with your signature? Are you afriad of getting someone pregnant or something?

Oi, Im in WC1

I figure with such a signature I can say what I like without having to correct it when it's completely wrong. Like when a few weeks ago I was saying coordinated rate cuts were impossible but a bit later on trading on them...

P.S. Do you want me to get you pregnant or something?

 

[arabianights]

Over 2000% annualised return

My latest betfair trading adventure attached. Pathetic, eh?

 

[fifty2aces]

My latest betfair trading adventure attached. Pathetic, eh?

Just to confirm, did you arb out a £1.33 profit by laying at odds of 2, and backing at odds of 2 and 4?

 

[arabianights]

laying at odds of 2 and 4 and backing at odds at 4