Model for Forecast Economic Data

[eaststone]

Because trading binary options,i recently spent some time research non-farm payrolls,made a model, and later improved it.
For example last month, the market forecast 17.9, my model was 17.4, the actual 16.9, so that mean the actual will lower than the market forecast data
For non-farm, in the past 10 months all are correct,it all have got right Direction
I also use this model is then used to apply other data,
Thursday 3/10: UK PMI, expected lower than market Forecast,the U.S. Unemployment Claims expected lower , the U.S. PMI, expected lower, the final actual data all lower than market Forecast
i did binary options trading for U.S. Unemployment Claims,market Forecast 314k, my model 310k
i sold more than 310k options and won,Actual 308K ,also post my my model Forecast and trades 50 minus before Actual Release.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/tra...und-join-me-trading-binary-2.html#post2201166

October 10 ,US Unemployment Claims , Forecast 310k , My model 313k,i guess Actual will higher than Forecast ,my plans to buy more than 310K options.

 

[eaststone]

October 10 ,US Unemployment Claims , Forecast 310k , My model 313k,i guess Actual will higher than Forecast ,my plans to buy more than 310K options.

Actual higher than forecast 374K

 

[Purple Brain]

When you say you sold 310K binary options who do you trade these through?

Well done on finding something that works. You say you've got 100% success rate over 10 months with NFP; how long have you been using it successfully on other data and what is the accuracy in terms of getting your estimate the 'actual' side of the official estimate?

 

[Purple Brain]

Binary options would seem to be about the only way to sensibly trade this edge you have as attempting to assess how the data will be received and its directional impact on the various asset classes is a totally different ball game.

 

[eaststone]

This week will forecast 3 date

15/10 Forecast will higher than market Forecast
10:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

16/10 Forecast will lower than market Forecast
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change

17/10 update later
USD Unemployment Claims

 

[eaststone]

10/16
9:30am GBP Claimant Count Change-41.7K -24.3K -41.6
actual is lower than Forecast
My forecast is right

10/15
10:00am EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
52.8 49.2 49.6
actual is higher than Forecast
My forecast is right

 

[eaststone]

so far:7times forecast 6 times right and one time wrong

 

[eaststone]

22/10 nonfarm ,Forecast 180K
My Forecast is actual will higher than market Forecast