Date: August 13, 2026
Key levels: Support 99.80–99.50; Resistance 100.20–100.50.
Outlook: Neutral. PPI data later today will set the next direction.
Key levels: Support $4,400–$4,300; Resistance $4,495–$4,510.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,400. Targeting $4,495–$4,510 (200-day MA + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
Key levels: Support $80.00–$79.09; Resistance $85.11–$86.00.
Outlook: Neutral to slightly bearish. Watch geopolitical headlines closely.
AI stocks led the rally:
Key levels: Support 53,500–53,000; Resistance 54,000–54,747.
Outlook: Bullish. Corporate earnings remain the key driver.
PPI data will provide further confirmation on whether inflation pressures are moderating, offering additional clarity on the Fed's September policy path.
Executive Summary
US inflation data met expectations, cooling Fed rate hike odds and sending gold to a two-month high above $4,440/oz. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed near record highs, driven by surging AI stocks following strong earnings from CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer. Oil paused after five straight sessions of gains, while the dollar steadied above 100.00. Markets now turn their attention to Thursday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims.US Dollar – Steadies Above 100 After CPI
The US Dollar Index (DXY) held above 100.00 after July's CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.5% in June and in line with expectations. Core inflation rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year – the slowest annual pace since March 2021. Fed funds futures now price a ~60% probability that the central bank will hold rates steady in September, up from slightly over 45% a week earlier. The Fed's September hike probability dropped from ~54% to ~40%.Key levels: Support 99.80–99.50; Resistance 100.20–100.50.
Outlook: Neutral. PPI data later today will set the next direction.
Gold – Hits 2-Month High Above $4,440
Spot gold surged to $4,433-$4,450/oz, reaching its highest level since June 5. The tame CPI print undermined expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike, lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Gold extended its advance on the same cool CPI data, rising as much as 1.6% above $4,440.Key levels: Support $4,400–$4,300; Resistance $4,495–$4,510.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,400. Targeting $4,495–$4,510 (200-day MA + 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
WTI Crude – Pauses After Five-Day Rally
Oil prices eased slightly after five consecutive sessions of gains, with WTI trading near $81.97-$83.00/bbl. Weaker 2026 demand forecasts and a sharp US crude inventory build weighed on prices. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated as the Strait of Hormuz deadlock persists, with traders finding little fresh evidence of progress in US-Iran talks.Key levels: Support $80.00–$79.09; Resistance $85.11–$86.00.
Outlook: Neutral to slightly bearish. Watch geopolitical headlines closely.
US Equities – Near Record Highs on AI Rally
US stocks closed mostly higher, with the S&P 500 rising 0.26% to 7,748.5 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.54% to 26,588.49. The Dow Jones edged down 0.04% to 53,770.27. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 4.78% to 14.55, its lowest level since January.AI stocks led the rally:
- CoreWeave surged ~18% after quarterly revenue doubled year-on-year
- Super Micro Computer jumped 17% on strong revenue and earnings guidance
- Dell Technologies gained ~10%, Micron Technology ~5%, Cisco Systems >2.8%
Key levels: Support 53,500–53,000; Resistance 54,000–54,747.
Outlook: Bullish. Corporate earnings remain the key driver.
Currency Pairs – Key Levels
- EUR/USD: 1.1500附近 – Support 1.1480–1.1450; Resistance 1.1550–1.1580
- GBP/USD: 1.3400上方 – Support 1.3380–1.3350; Resistance 1.3480–1.3500
- USD/JPY: 159.50附近 – Support 158.50–158.00; Resistance 160.00–160.88
Key Events Today (August 13) – IMPORTANT
| Time (AEST) | Event | Forecast / Notes |
| 19:00 | UK GDP (Q2) | Expected to show slower growth |
| 22:30 | US Producer Price Index (Jul) | Core PPI expected to slow to 4.2% from 4.7% |
| 22:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | Weekly unemployment data |
| 22:30+ | Fed Speakers: Hammack & Barkin | Policy clues post-CPI |
- USD: Steady above 100, awaiting PPI
- Gold: 2-month high above $4,400, targeting $4,495–$4,510
- Oil: Pausing, geopolitical risks remain elevated
- US Equities: Near record highs, AI-driven rally
- EUR/USD: Pulling back toward 1.1500
- USD/JPY: Recovering toward 159.50
