troyresearch
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Indicators, schmindicators to some, but which ever way you look at May Brent, it's overbought. Opinions on the level of pullback we're looking at?
May Brent pullback
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brentfutures
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mate you still short???? 
its a short when we see a weekly close below a previous weeks low..... until then the bulls are in control.....
its a short when we see a weekly close below a previous weeks low..... until then the bulls are in control.....
troyresearch
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brentfutures said:mate you still short????
its a short when we see a weekly close below a previous weeks low..... until then the bulls are in control.....
Banked a small gain on the previous short when there was a drop on profit taking, but alas went back in on the short side. With it looking like USD 69 will become the new resistance, would you think me criminally insane to roll over the existing short to a Jun contract?
Big lesson learned, etc...
brentfutures
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until the idiots realise that nothing will happen in iran and when normal service is resumed in nigeria, i would be suspect being short...nevertheless when i get the signal im guna triple size and smack this market....
troyresearch
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Bloomberg
The American Stock Exchange today began trading a fund that tracks the prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark. The ETF, the first to track crude oil exclusively, provides an easier vehicle for retail investors to put their money into the commodity.
Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Inc. in New York said the ETF may be a sign of a top in the market. ``Typically when the dentists and doctors enter the market, you've probably seen the high or low of the move, perhaps the end of the bull cycle,'' Barakat said. ``Where have they been for the last three years?''
The American Stock Exchange today began trading a fund that tracks the prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark. The ETF, the first to track crude oil exclusively, provides an easier vehicle for retail investors to put their money into the commodity.
Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Inc. in New York said the ETF may be a sign of a top in the market. ``Typically when the dentists and doctors enter the market, you've probably seen the high or low of the move, perhaps the end of the bull cycle,'' Barakat said. ``Where have they been for the last three years?''
brentfutures
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doesnt mean ****......
the only way its coming down is if iran is settled with a US pledge not to go to war or something of the sort..... im afraid its going to be pen on paper rather than a techinal pattern...
the only way its coming down is if iran is settled with a US pledge not to go to war or something of the sort..... im afraid its going to be pen on paper rather than a techinal pattern...
safesignals
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Oil prices! Where are we heading?
Dear readers;
Watch BBC NEWS24 at 13:40. The interview with Dr. Rejaifar our CEO about oil prices and where we are heading.
Regards
Dear readers;
Watch BBC NEWS24 at 13:40. The interview with Dr. Rejaifar our CEO about oil prices and where we are heading.
Regards
brentfutures
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twalker said:
i agree... just trade the trend..... its the easiest way....dont "marry your opinion"
Directional
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brentfutures said:
Chick Goslin got it right when he said quit trying to pick tops, strong markets tend to get stronger, weak markets tend to get weaker etc.
If you thought oil was expensive at $70, would you think that is cheap now oil is at $72 just two days on?
newtrader22
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It won't be expensive at $ 80 either
of course it will also be way too expensive at $50 when we get there..................
actually if you all stick around long enough you will see every thing..............
about a hundred years ago when i started euro rates were about 16/17 % and five years ago i got to sell 100 calls in euro yen........who would have thunk it!!
basically everyone should relax ........vol wise things have been very quiet for the last few years and the increased vol levels have probably only just begun.
trade wise that might well be a good thing..........politically / socially perhaps not so pleasant.
happy tradiing one and all
actually if you all stick around long enough you will see every thing..............
about a hundred years ago when i started euro rates were about 16/17 % and five years ago i got to sell 100 calls in euro yen........who would have thunk it!!
basically everyone should relax ........vol wise things have been very quiet for the last few years and the increased vol levels have probably only just begun.
trade wise that might well be a good thing..........politically / socially perhaps not so pleasant.
happy tradiing one and all
Given that I have done an introductory course on futures, where to from here?You all sound like you are in another world, understanding the political and economical situations, and therefore having some ideas re gold $us and energy moves. Anyone care to share how to get started in this big wide world from this little island called Downunder(Australia). Certainly don't want to follow this territory in the markets. Cheers. Lisbet
troyresearch
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lisbet said:
Either jump straight in and lose alot / all of your money very quickly, or start using what you've learned to paper trade and see if the methodology works.
Some good places for you to start, IMO, if you want the back up of informed commentary: / useful technical indicators:
1. theoiltrader.com offers commentary on the US Light Crude market as part of its 'Professional Series' packae, updated several times daily (you receive an email alert notifying you that the site has been updated). Coverage runs the gamut of technicals, market sentiment and geopolitical influences. Be warned, the service isn't cheap and I've found the language used fairly inaccessibe to the non-specialist user. You can, however, sign up for a 2 week free trial and make up your own mind about it.
2. Investorsintelligence.com offers a daily service tracking all major commodity markets (called Commodities Daily Hotline), with updates posted at around 11am GMT Mon-Fri. This is almost purely devoted to the TA picture but can be useful for evaluating opportunities or checking the validity of your own TA interpretation. As with any of these, I'm not sure I always agree with the output and its model portfolio 'picks' could end up losing you alot more money than you make in certain markets like the LME - owing to the vagaries of contago and backwardation. Still worth a look.
3. As for TA software packages, there's no shortage of views on the value of these expressed elswehere on this board.
I ended up buying a hugely expensive system (albeit at a huge discount) called VantagePoint, which tracks all major US/UK commodity and currency markets. It's an end-of-day system and operates on the basis of showing crossovers of actual and predicted moving averages. Standalone it's pretty useless IMO. Where it does demonstrate some value is in backing up your own methodology (gleaned from other sources) and for confirmation of trends. But I can think of ways in which this would be achievable without the huge upfront outlay required to buy the software.
I've found TradeGuider to be of much more value - even for the end-of-day system. It focuses on volume spread analysis to help you understand when the professional (smart) money is moving in our out of an instrument, so that you don't simply follow the herd and end up getting trapped in a market which is peaking, for instance. Again coverage of all major commodity / currency markets and indices is offered, but your interpretation of this does require you to get your head around the underlying methodologies.
I've attached screen shots from both VantagePoint and TradeGuider of 08/06 Brent Crude contracts for info.
Perhaps others who have come across stuff they find useful / useless would add to this.
Attachments
Directional
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I'd be wary of recommending VantagePoint as an analyser. IMO their marketing is nothing short of blatant lies cleverly slanted to appeal to every traders wishlist for a holy grail product.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=18857
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=13697
you can replicate their supposed projected MA's using a bit of TradeStation code provided in this thread:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=8626
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=18857
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=13697
you can replicate their supposed projected MA's using a bit of TradeStation code provided in this thread:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=8626
troyresearch
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Arbitrageur said:
Just to be clear, my earlier post wasn't a recommendation to buy VantagePoint, it merely set out that it can be useful as final confirmation of a trend, but I went on to add that there are ways of doing this, without shelling out for the software. And as Arbittrageur has helpfully pointed out, there is code out there which will do the same thing with other proprietary systems.
My suggestion about TradeGuider was, however, a recommendation.
