paul,
thanks for your reply i dont beleive any of these systems either but i still think prices are being moved around by the big boys and i think your right all we can do is react or maybe get bonsai to zap them with his square law thingy
thanks for your reply i dont beleive any of these systems either but i still think prices are being moved around by the big boys and i think your right all we can do is react or maybe get bonsai to zap them with his square law thingy
Apologies in advance
NAH - Bonsai now looks to Uranus for direction.
bisto said:paul,
thanks for your reply i dont beleive any of these systems either but i still think prices are being moved around by the big boys and i think your right all we can do is react or maybe get bonsai to zap them with his square law thingy
NAH - Bonsai now looks to Uranus for direction.
Trader 333, as a novice it gives me a little bit of comfort knowing that nobody knows exactly where the market is going, just for the fact i may be missing out on something. Peedee.
As for not knowing exactly where the market is going having the slightest edge on direction and timescales is definatelt better than coin tossing. Whilst there is undoubtably manipulation of the markets by the big boys, the randomesque nature of the markets movements lend's itself very, *very* well to statistical analysis of mean price/volume reversion.
To ignore statistical analysis of past price action is like closing Murphey's book for good. As I said before, it's not *the* key, it's *a* key.
Prediction Company for one http://www.predict.com/ , a very famous (StatArb, anyway ) trading system. Unsurprisingly, it's completely prop and is locked up in an exclusive license with UBS. There are others, many developed inhouse by most if not all of the, say, top ten globals.
Cheers
Dave
To ignore statistical analysis of past price action is like closing Murphey's book for good. As I said before, it's not *the* key, it's *a* key.
Prediction Company for one http://www.predict.com/ , a very famous (StatArb, anyway ) trading system. Unsurprisingly, it's completely prop and is locked up in an exclusive license with UBS. There are others, many developed inhouse by most if not all of the, say, top ten globals.
Cheers
Dave
This is interesting.
I don't find the market (Dow) random; but neither do I use trends (other than to be aware of a general chart prognosis for the day ahead).
However the gyrations of the Dow do lend themselves to predication if you put in place the necessary data and parameters. So while I wouldn't say this is mathematical, it is a question of numbers (ranges, time axis, other numerical parameters, etc) so one would probably have to say that I'm using a statistical model.
I don't find the market (Dow) random; but neither do I use trends (other than to be aware of a general chart prognosis for the day ahead).
However the gyrations of the Dow do lend themselves to predication if you put in place the necessary data and parameters. So while I wouldn't say this is mathematical, it is a question of numbers (ranges, time axis, other numerical parameters, etc) so one would probably have to say that I'm using a statistical model.
Would be interested in peoples experiance of donchian channels. Never really looked at these before but reading up on them it appears that the turtles use them or a varient thereof. WOuld be interest to know if anybody pins there hat on them.
The turtles used a 20/10 breakoutsystem for entries/ exits.
ie if the price goes higher/ lower than the previous 20 periods high/low, a long/ short entry was made. The position was closed on a 10 period breakout in the opposite direction, defined in the same way.
There are a number of other rules about adding to poitions etc and strict money management based on volatility measures and position sizing.
Donchian channels as I understand it, would just illustrate on a chart, the previous high/ low of n periods so that you can easily see when the breakout occurs. (Not that it's difficult to see anyway).
Donchian channels are not something I use but I think the turtle system still works reasonably well on commodities/ forex etc on an EOD trading methodology. It's more of a long term, trend following method of trading though which not many people on here seem to subscribe to.
ie if the price goes higher/ lower than the previous 20 periods high/low, a long/ short entry was made. The position was closed on a 10 period breakout in the opposite direction, defined in the same way.
There are a number of other rules about adding to poitions etc and strict money management based on volatility measures and position sizing.
Donchian channels as I understand it, would just illustrate on a chart, the previous high/ low of n periods so that you can easily see when the breakout occurs. (Not that it's difficult to see anyway).
Donchian channels are not something I use but I think the turtle system still works reasonably well on commodities/ forex etc on an EOD trading methodology. It's more of a long term, trend following method of trading though which not many people on here seem to subscribe to.
Further back in this thread there were several posts to do with consecutive runs. Been fiddling with this and others in the last couple of days and would be interested to know if anybody has or can work out the inverse of this forumla? I.e. what % do I have of X number of consecutive runs based upon past success rate of Y.
