Maths is not the key to trading

peedee

1
If it was to be trading by equations, everyone would be at it. PeeDee.

In terms of money management Maths is critical and much of trading success comes from how well money is managed.

Paul

at last, now I can dump my Fourier spectral analysis.

I do not mean that area of money managment. If that gives you a critical point of entry/exit on any trade then i would like it off you. PeeDee.

peedee
are you talking to me or Paul ?

I went to the trouble some years ago of actually programming Mr
Hursts theories to see if they worked in practical trading terms.
Apart from an interesting exercise in sine wave mathematics
and a great deal of fun playing with different cycle waves it has
sat unused. Like all systems youwill eventually get a signal that
coincides with a turn in the market. But there is considerable lag
so it is only of academic interest unless you are an institutional
trader and you are investing other peoples money on a buy and
hold strategy.

Just can't bring myself round to the idea of scrapping it.

You said it yourself, it has sat unused. The question is, did you make any profit from the sine waves maths, if so, well good, keep going. Who knows when the next cycle is to be. Cheers bonsai, PeeDee.

lol
plenty of "cycles" in the market but do they coincide with sine wave phases is the issue.
and if so why?

I suspect it's one of those systems that would only work if
a critical mass of traders used it. And as they dont.it wont.

I do not know if it is true or not but pros only use vol or csc as a pre-lim analysis. PeeDee.

"The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" by J.M Hurst.

Quote
The author reports on a price forecasting technique that predicts price turns with 90% accuracy ... produces an average profit of 10% per month....and proves your stockmarket fortune can be built like clockwork.
Unquote.

I picked it up in a shopping mall on the way to Newark airport.
Thought it might be a good laugh to read on the plane.
And it was.

Cost all of \$7.95 but it was some years ago.

However in fairness to the guy, there were one or two good ideas

Jeepers creepers. When did they build an airport at Newark?

There's and old castle and quite a nice market and shops but an airport!

JonnyT

Newark , NJ.

Gentlemen,

Black, Scholes & Merton showed that mathematics plays quite a significant role in trading, don't you agree?

that's a nicely ambiguous question.
should be interesting to see what replies you get.

what do you mean by 'significant' and
what do you mean by 'trading'

and of course there is always a time frame to consider.

V.III,
yes,those guys were such great mathmaticicans and risk managers they bankrupted LTCM and nearly collapsed the entire market

Math can frame subject or situations but doesn't lend itself well to predictions IMHO. Math can describe a bucket very accurately or maybe the probable size, shape and colour of a bucket but won't tell you what the bucket will do next.

Maths, i pesonally think is a great way of analysation, but it wont tell you where the market is going, thats up to you. PeeDee.

No-one knows for certain where the market is heading. I used to think that there were a group of people who did and if only I could find out who they were and how they did it I would be made. What I do know is that they dont exist and once I realised that my trading changed quite dramatically.

Paul

well, math is the key to making profits as far as insurance companies, bookmakers, casino operators etc. are concerned

law of averages/probability blah

as traders, we can never say for certain that a particular trade is gonna go in a certain direction, but if we can develop a strategy or system where the odds are in our favor (like the casino operators) and our winning trades more than compensate our loozers, then we're in the money

Ra! for math

Cheers for the replies. PeeDee.

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