Date: August 12, 2026
Key levels: Support 99.00–98.50; Resistance 100.00–100.20–101.00.
Outlook: Neutral. CPI will set the direction.
Key levels: Support $80.00–$79.09; Resistance $85.11–$86.00.
Outlook: Bullish above $80.00. Watch geopolitical headlines.
Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,250; Resistance $4,495–$4,510.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,300. Targeting $4,495–$4,510.
Key levels: Support 9,200–9,040; Resistance 9,302.
Outlook: Short-term recovery. Awaiting CPI.
Key levels: Support 3,900–3,850; Resistance 4,000.
Outlook: Pullback within an uptrend.
Executive Summary
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of tonight's US CPI data, the most important release of the week. Gold hit $4,400/oz, its highest since June 5, supported by central bank buying and expectations of a soft inflation print. Oil rebounded to $82/bbl as US-Iran tensions resurfaced. The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected but maintained a hawkish stance. All eyes are now on US CPI, which will set the direction for the dollar, gold, and risk assets.US Dollar – Awaiting CPI Direction
DXY trades near 99.75-99.92, with markets awaiting tonight's US CPI data. September Fed hike odds are at 51%, up from 44% previously. Cleveland Fed President Hammack noted that multiple rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back to 2%.Key levels: Support 99.00–98.50; Resistance 100.00–100.20–101.00.
Outlook: Neutral. CPI will set the direction.
RBA – Holds Rates at 4.35%
The RBA kept rates steady at 4.35%, as widely expected. However, the central bank maintained its hawkish bias, warning that inflation remains stubborn and that future rate hikes are not off the table. December rate hike odds remain around 50%.WTI Crude – Rebounds Above $80
WTI crude rose to $82/bbl, up nearly 7% as US and Iran clashed over war reparations, clouding the outlook for a Hormuz agreement. Tehran is seeking compensation for US and Israeli attacks. Support lies at $80.00-79.09.Key levels: Support $80.00–$79.09; Resistance $85.11–$86.00.
Outlook: Bullish above $80.00. Watch geopolitical headlines.
Gold – Hits $4,400
Gold touched $4,400/oz, its highest since June 5. Supported by expectations of a soft US CPI print and central bank buying. The People's Bank of China added gold reserves at the fastest pace since October 2023. Next target: $4,495-$4,510.Key levels: Support $4,300–$4,250; Resistance $4,495–$4,510.
Outlook: Bullish above $4,300. Targeting $4,495–$4,510.
ASX200 – Recovers Slightly
ASX200 rose 0.2% to 9,251, ending a 2-day losing streak. The RBA held rates at 4.35% as expected but maintained a hawkish stance. Energy (+5.4% Santos) and healthcare led gains, while banks and retail lagged.Key levels: Support 9,200–9,040; Resistance 9,302.
Outlook: Short-term recovery. Awaiting CPI.
Shanghai Composite – Pulls Back
Shanghai Composite fell 0.82% to 3,934, ending a 5-day winning streak. Non-ferrous metals and energy sectors saw sharp declines, while pharmaceuticals rallied. The market is consolidating ahead of the 4,000 level.Key levels: Support 3,900–3,850; Resistance 4,000.
Outlook: Pullback within an uptrend.
Currency Pairs – Key Levels
- EUR/USD: 1.1530–1.1550 – Support 1.1500–1.1450; Resistance 1.1581–1.1620
- GBP/USD: 1.3495–1.3500 – Support 1.3463–1.3409; Resistance 1.3530–1.3558
- AUD/USD: 0.7040–0.7055 – Support 0.7000–0.6928; Resistance 0.7100–0.7145
- USD/JPY: 159.00–159.46 – Support 158.55–158.00; Resistance 160.00–160.88
Key Event Today – IMPORTANT
- 8:30 PM AEST: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) – the main event of the week
- This data will set the direction for USD, gold, yields, and equities
Bottom Line
- DXY: Below 100, awaiting CPI
- Gold: Above $4,300, targeting $4,495–$4,510
- Oil: Above $80, geopolitical-driven
- RBA: Hold at 4.35%, hawkish bias
- ASX200: Recovering, awaiting CPI
