US DOLLAR INDEX – HITS 3-MONTH HIGH
- DXY climbed to 101.55, its highest level in nearly 3 months, supported by surging oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions.
- Markets are now pricing in a 78% probability of a September Fed rate hike, up sharply from 61% the previous day.
- US labor data showed unexpected strength: weekly jobless claims dropped to 187,000 – the lowest reading since 1969.
- Resistance: 101.80 (June 24 high) – 102.00 (psychological). Support: 100.55 – 100.35.
WTI CRUDE OIL – SURGES 6% TO $92/BBL
- WTI crude surged over 6% to trade above $92/bbl, marking the 5th consecutive session of gains and its highest level since early June.
- President Trump warned that the US will hold Iran responsible for Houthi attacks and is considering "large-scale strikes" on Iran.
- Oil prices are now up over 30% from pre-conflict levels in early July.
- Resistance: $92.25 (session high) – $94.86 (June 3 high). Support: $86.58 (session low) – $85.02 (5-day MA).
SPOT GOLD – PULLS BACK ON RATE EXPECTATIONS
- Gold trades near **$4,045/oz**, pulling back from the $4,155-4,165 resistance zone as Fed rate hike expectations surged.
- The sharp rise in oil prices has reignited inflation concerns, raising rate expectations and pressuring non-yielding assets.
- Geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand continue to provide underlying support but are being outweighed by rate pressures.
- Resistance: $4,100 – $4,165 (23.6% Fib). Support: $4,000 (psychological) – $3,982 (weekly low).
EQUITIES – ASX200 EDGES HIGHER, NZX50 HITS RECORD
- ASX 200: Closed at 8,839 (+0.2%), its third consecutive gain. Strong Australian jobs data (76,300 new jobs) reinforced expectations of an RBA rate hike in August. Support at 8,800, resistance at 8,888.
- NZX50: Rose to 13,795 (+0.2%), hitting a fresh all-time high. Energy and materials led gains. Support at 13,711, resistance at 13,830.
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
- Oil: Geopolitical escalation and supply disruption risks remain the primary drivers. Further military threats could push prices toward higher resistance levels. The $92.25 and $94.86 levels are key upside targets to watch.
- Gold: The short-term pullback reflects rising rate expectations, but safe-haven demand and geopolitical uncertainty should limit downside. The $4,000 level serves as a key support anchor.
- DXY: The dollar is being supported by geopolitical risk and hawkish Fed expectations. Strong labor data reinforces this stance. However, with technical indicators approaching resistance, short-term pullback risks remain.
- Australian Equities: Strong employment data has raised expectations of an RBA rate hike, which could continue to weigh on interest-rate-sensitive sectors.
