US DOLLAR INDEX – EXTENDS GAINS FOR 4TH SESSION
- DXY remains above 101, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains, supported by higher Treasury yields and escalating geopolitical tensions.
- Ongoing US airstrikes on Iran, Red Sea shipping disruptions, and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing dollar strength.
- Private sector hiring continues to slow, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady next week. Markets are pricing in a 55%+ probability of a September rate hike.
- Resistance: 101.51 (recent rebound high) – 101.80 (June 24 high). Support: 101.06 (BB midpoint) – 100.75 (34-day MA) – 100.36 (recent monthly low).
WTI CRUDE OIL – TRADING NEAR $86/BBL
- Oil prices remain near $86/bbl as escalating US-Iran tensions and regional military strikes fuel supply disruption fears across key energy routes.
- The Houthi maritime embargo and attacks on Gulf civilian infrastructure have intensified concerns over oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
- Brent crude has remained in technically overbought territory for seven consecutive sessions, reflecting high geopolitical risk premiums rather than actual supply shortages.
- Resistance: $90.00 – $91.50 (short-term risk pricing zone). Support: $82.51 (50-day MA) – $80.00 (psychological level).
SPOT GOLD – REGAINS SHORT-TERM BULLISH MOMENTUM
- Gold trades near $4,130/oz in early Asian trading, supported by safe-haven demand and hawkish Fed expectations.
- Gold broke above the key psychological level of $4,000, driven by optimism over potential diplomatic progress and a Middle East ceasefire.
- Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, oil-driven inflation pressures, and the upcoming Fed policy meeting remain key drivers for gold price volatility.
- Resistance: $4,150 – $4,181.50 (40-day MA) – $4,200 (psychological level). **Support:** $4,021.28 – $4,000 – $3,982 (recent low).
STRATEGIC OUTLOOK
- Oil: Markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments – further attacks on civilian infrastructure could drive additional upside, while ceasefire-related pullbacks may be short-lived.
- Gold: Short-term bullish momentum is intact as gold holds above $4,000, though policy-related headwinds remain a key risk to monitor.
- DXY: Supported by safe-haven demand and higher yields, though rising oil prices and inflation concerns limit upside. Markets view geopolitical tensions as a manageable risk, not a global liquidity crisis.
