Market could be smokin on Monday


The market here and across the atlantic will be waiting to hear what has happened in the class action being taken against the largest tobacco company in the world on Monday as smokers seek to claim a collosal $7 billion from them.
Might see some further crashing if it goes against them...but with 17 march on the horizon any surge on positive news for the market will be short lived!
Hi BulletBear,

I am not sure I agree with your sentiments on March 17th. The reason being that by then the market will have taken all the bad news in anticipation. In 1991 on the day the action started virtually all markets went up and continued to do so.

uncertainty fuels the markets, so although a 17th march deadline will initially depress the markets. The actual deadline wont cause the markets the free fall.
The contrarian view is that if everyone is long in anticipation of the war starting and the markets going up, then when it does start there is no-one left to buy so the market must fall.
Don't know if your into TA but there are 3 separate charting techniques all indicating the same fate for the FTSE and that is that it will fall to at least 2750/2835 in the next move down.

One system is the descending triangle (bearish) where twice the price has broken through the base line at 3600. It is also a significant break out with a close at this level over several days. The top of this pattern was 4450 so on the measuring formula at breakout point at 3600 there is a possible 850 points to be lost, making 2750 a target support area.

Then there is the retracement theory from the overall rise to 6980 again twice the price breached the 50% level and now we look to be moving to test the upper level of62-66% this figure would be around 2770/2835 depending on where you view the original rise started at all those years ago. Basically from a charting perspective the FTSE has been in one long rise until it turned (the bear market)
Bear in mind that all any chart ever does is attempt to predict "mass and temporarily polarised human psychology" and whilst it may be accurate some of the time I certainly wouldnt like to rely on it as means to what may happen next. If any of you watch CNBC or Bloomberg you will know that time and again we have leading market experts telling us which way markets will move, by how far and the reasons for this. In the last 3 years they have all been totally wrong.

I once used to think that there was someone out there who has an indicator(s) or a system that let them know which way markets were going to behave. I thought that if I could just get the same system or indicator then I would have cracked the trading dream. Once I realised that this does not exist my trading changed dramatically and much for the better.

Trader 333

Maybe so but if the chart changes then you react to the changing chart. It has not done me any harm to follow it and as with any assessment tomorrow brings another day so all that can be done from the charting is to be aware of it and use it as I feel a fairly reliable gauge but not to consider the figures placed in stone.

However had you of followed these signals and held on you would be doing rather well. I certainly follow them for intraday deals and they do very well. Of course the situation can change and I feel that is where people go wrong with charting there expectation is that because a particular theory says the price should stop rising at 4000 and it goes to 4100 they lose faith there are no exacts but applied as a general direction gauge I feel there is evidence to show it is worthwhile.

regards Kevin