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[miller_ol12]

Is there a live chat room for futures or forex day traders?

 

[wackypete2]

Yep, I think that is the case most of the time, but there are always a few exceptions which make you think!

Could be just 'playing dead' right now - very similar setup to last monday when it also played dead - that took off @ 14:00 London time, which is a bit different to 19:00

will go to pub now and forget about e/u for a few hours...

:cheers:

Peter

 

[VielGeld]

We have an interesting proposition this evening:



If I recall correctly, ChocolateDigestive showed a chart displaying similar action which showed that the market was being gamed. Notice the strength around 110.4, and the weakness around 111.2.. Right now, it's about in the middle of that range, 110.75. Supposedly, this would imply it's going to sell off.

But -- the rest of the Jpy pairs may not confirm this. Lots of middle-of-the-range and whipping around.

So, for tonight:

- Slight Short bias.

- Downward target: the 60, and the 40. 50 is usually significant at all times, but we'll see.

- Upward target: I have no doubt it would want to touch 111 again at the very least, if not blow it apart.

And now time to lie in wait... and be patient.

 

[wackypete2]

AUD/USD - RBA financial asssessment at 8:30

Peter

 

[VielGeld]

Actually, I might have to consider a third option: "not gonna go nowhere".

We've had a huge upswing already this week, so the market may decide to rest instead. Let's see what happens.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

We have an interesting proposition this evening:



If I recall correctly, ChocolateDigestive showed a chart displaying similar action which showed that the market was being gamed. Notice the strength around 110.4, and the weakness around 111.2.. Right now, it's about in the middle of that range, 110.75. Supposedly, this would imply it's going to sell off.

But -- the rest of the Jpy pairs may not confirm this. Lots of middle-of-the-range and whipping around.

So, for tonight:

- Slight Short bias.

- Downward target: the 60, and the 40. 50 is usually significant at all times, but we'll see.

- Upward target: I have no doubt it would want to touch 111 again at the very least, if not blow it apart.

And now time to lie in wait... and be patient.

cant see anything there to suggest any price manipulation. check this diagram.

price moves in clear downtrend, price pulls back to point 1 and some short enter, price continues to point 2, shorts are very happy but then they take some heat until they are shaken out at point 3. market then re-enters down trend. imo entering at the red arrow short is a good call as price looks to take out any weak longs again. as soon as you see price acceleration south at point 3 you should look to get short.

points to note - for every contract short someone is long. what matters is conviction of buyers and liquidity available, hard to get that data for spot FX.

if price reverses at the red arrow then you have an inverse H&S pattern and if you are trading those you may as well get your horoscope out.

Why would price make this pattern, has something happened in the fundamentals in the marketplace to cause this pattern or are larger forces at work.

I am almost done with Forex as it's a wind up for many reasons.

 

[wackypete2]

buy audusd 1.0447 stop 1.0437
looking for the trendline to provide support.

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

I am almost done with Forex as it's a wind up for many reasons.

I won't completely disagree with that but even so, opportunities are there.
What else do you trade? I've trades US equities, ES, and gold/silver futures. IMO only I found stocks to be easiest to make money but I could never make much of it at a time with the cr@p margin requirements and US regs.

Peter

 

[VielGeld]

cant see anything there to suggest any price manipulation. check this diagram.

[snip]

Didn't expect a reply, so thanks!

Yeah, there may not be any "gaming" here since this follows a strong up-trend. The market appears quite tired here as well. Barely any movement.

I am almost done with Forex as it's a wind up for many reasons.

Why's that? Going to stick to futures from now on?

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

I'm seriously thinking of no longer trading forex during US afternoons. For the past 2 months extremely thin ranges have been the norm. I don't really know why. Maybe tomorrow I'll post some ES trades and see how it goes.

Peter

Forex trading is a wind up. I reckon it's the hardest instrument to trade as there are so many factors that affect the price. Perversely most noobs start off with FX as it is always open and you can get huge leverage. Just recently I was in for a certain short then Bernanke opened his mouth and I got stopped out, spot FX is as predictable as a box of frogs. Of late I have been continuing my education into stocks, futures and bonds, basically anything exchange traded. FX is tough.

 

[VielGeld]

Forex trading is a wind up. I reckon it's the hardest instrument to trade as there are so many factors that affect the price. Perversely most noobs start off with FX as it is always open and you can get huge leverage. Just recently I was in for a certain short then Bernanke opened his mouth and I got stopped out, spot FX is as predictable as a box of frogs. Of late I have been continuing my education into stocks, futures and bonds, basically anything exchange traded. FX is tough.

So if I master FX, then the rest will be a piece of cake, right? :smart:

 

[wackypete2]

Forex trading is a wind up. I reckon it's the hardest instrument to trade as there are so many factors that affect the price. Perversely most noobs start off with FX as it is always open and you can get huge leverage. Just recently I was in for a certain short then Bernanke opened his mouth and I got stopped out, spot FX is as predictable as a box of frogs. Of late I have been continuing my education into stocks, futures and bonds, basically anything exchange traded. FX is tough.

I would never tell noobs to start with spot forex but when I used to say that on these boards I'd get hung As far as bernanke et al speaking it's a special art form to be able to trade around that, which is what gets a lot of noobs frustrated. I've found that trading forex had really made me pay some attention to fundamentals. Just being aware of events and news has helped me. When I traded stocks I barely knew what a fundamental was

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

When I first started in forex someone told me it was the new wild wild west. My response was YeeHaaa!!

He was certainly right though.

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

buy audusd 1.0447 stop 1.0437
looking for the trendline to provide support.

Peter

exit 1.0452 +5
quickie punt before data is out

Peter

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

I won't completely disagree with that but even so, opportunities are there.
What else do you trade? I've trades US equities, ES, and gold/silver futures. IMO only I found stocks to be easiest to make money but I could never make much of it at a time with the cr@p margin requirements and US regs.

Peter

sure there are opportunities there but I think it is tough. I am still continuing my education as Livermore would put it. I dabble in US stocks and some futures. I have been dabbling for a while and dabbling is dangerous. lol. My main business is retail investment advice and this takes up most of my time. Very soon though I will be trading at least a 3 hour sesh per day, probably the US market open in NY. 2.30pm here in UK.

It's funny you should mention stocks as making you money in the past, there is no easy money but if you want to take chunks out of trends aka. Mr Charts and Amit1986 style I think it is a very forgiving.

When you consider that you only take trades with the market bias and use a stock screener to isolate stocks of above average volume making new highs/low pre market/after opening at least you know you are on the right side of the market.

When you see a bullet train coming and trade with it you you have got to be very unlucky to pick out a reversal point and get cleaned out. Check out amit's journal he is killing it, today he nailed +66c on MAPP, it aint rocket science. Find stock that is trending, with 1c spread, decent volume with market bias and get on board reading the tape/level2. cut your losers, run your winners. of course it is nuanced but it is forgiving. when you consider I could make a random entry, go out do some looting, come back and I am probably in profit.

ref margin requirements - retail accounts limited to x 4 intraday, choose a reputable prop firm and they will leverage you up x 20 with as little as $5000 down but do your homework on the firm. if you are a US citizen you need your series 56 /7 or whatever but quite frankly taking a pi55 is harder than passing those.

 

[ChocolateDigestive]

When I first started in forex someone told me it was the new wild wild west. My response was YeeHaaa!!

He was certainly right though.

Peter

that person was correct. I am re-reading reminiscences of stock operator for the nth time. It is clear that spot FX is the bucket shop of our time. that book is gold.

 

[VielGeld]

I just wish they would allow more than 2x leverage on stocks. It's impossible to trade those things with lack of capital, which is one reason why I've taken to FX (and why the average Joe is getting pumped by Options outfits). I know leverage has a bad rep, but it's really not the kind of risk it's touted to be... Unless you're absolutely reckless with it.

If I could have an instrument that allowed leverage, did not have time decay, and sported linear price movements, while having tight spreads, low commissions, and traded on an exchange... I'd be all over it.

The closest to that right now is futures, but it seems there's a big lack of Canadian futures brokers because of stupid regulations or something. I think I might have to move to Malta or something!

 

[wackypete2]

ref margin requirements - retail accounts limited to x 4 intraday, choose a reputable prop firm and they will leverage you up x 20 with as little as $5000 down but do your homework on the firm. if you are a US citizen you need your series 56 /7 or whatever but quite frankly taking a pi55 is harder than passing those.

I traded with prop firms in the past. I was always uneasy though. US and UK brokerages have accounts insured in case the firm goes belly up. Not so with prop firms and I can be paranoid when it comes to my money. lol

I have browsed Amit's and Mr Charts threads on occasion. Good to see them doing well.

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

I just wish they would allow more than 2x leverage on stocks. It's impossible to trade those things with lack of capital, which is one reason why I've taken to FX (and why the average Joe is getting pumped by Options outfits). I know leverage has a bad rep, but it's really not the kind of risk it's touted to be... Unless you're absolutely reckless with it.

If I could have an instrument that allowed leverage, did not have time decay, and sported linear price movements, while having tight spreads, low commissions, and traded on an exchange... I'd be all over it.

The closest to that right now is futures, but it seems there's a big lack of Canadian futures brokers because of stupid regulations or something. I think I might have to move to Malta or something!

Agree...except Malta

Peter

 

[VielGeld]

Speaking of prop, I've been looking around here for a good firm, but it seems like I'd have to choose the lesser of a dozen evils. Is it really worth it? I'd be paying fees while putting up a couple $k, and trying to be profitable on top of that... egad...

Agree...except Malta

Peter

But... It's full of sunshine! And it's shaping up to be an ocean of sharks ideal Hedge Fund haven!

But for serious, since I'm serious about trading, I might have to move elsewhere. I live in the province of Quebec, and the tax rate is nearly 50% on just above median income. You simply cannot live on trading with that kind of a levy, even with cap. gains rate.