EUR/USD had a bullish momentum yesterday, closing above key resistance 1.1200. Overall I still prefer a bearish scenario but this made me stay away for now and wait for a new model. The bias is bullish for testing the lower line of the bullish price channel, localized around 1.1300. A clear break and daily close above that area could lead to further upward pressure to test 1.1400. The first support is at 1.1170/50, whose breach can reactivate the downward pattern for testing 1.1070/50 or lower.
The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, rebounding from a six-week low, reached in the previous session, as investors closed positions ahead of Friday's US employment report, excluding the agricultural sector, which should help determine the timing of the next increase of the Fed rate. The euro fell by 0.46 percent against the dollar to $ 1.1173.
piphoe
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The single currency marked a decrease against the US dollar on Wednesday. The euro failed to keep gains, accumulated in the previous session . The break of resistance at 1.1290 was postponed, but the pair most likely will test it in case the bullish sentiment prevail.
victoriajensen
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The pair is testing 1.1130 and a breakout below that level will likely lead to a further drop to 1.1100. That said, we can expect major volatility due to the fundamentals today and tomorrow.
arigoldman
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EUR/USD slightly down after upbeat US data.
It will always come down to personal preference but I am leaning towards the spot markets due to the risk in the Futures that comes from fixed contract sizes. I run money management where my risk is 1% of my account (for example). Because IB (and Oanda) support units as opposed to fixed contract sizes, I can execute the right position size. That might mean that on a particular trade, given my account size and the stop required, I will want to trade $63K in currency. You could do this using futures with multiple mini contracts but the commissions and liquidity are not in your favor. You could also go with a Broker like FXCM that allow micro contracts as that gets you close enough to arbitrary unit sizing - but IB has better spread than FXCM. Futures contracts require you to size in their increments and therefore, if you are running a position sizing algorithm, it will be ineffective. You will either go too small thereby negating one of the purposes of position sizing (optimal bet size) or you will over shoot and take on a larger size (more leverage/risk) which will ultimately bite you on a bad trade. That is the risk I was referring to. Being required to take a non-optimal position size and over-doing it on a bad trade.
The euro continued to lose ground against the dollar for a third straight session on Friday. The good data on the new jobs in US contributed to increased volatility and ultimately the euro depreciated by 40 pips to a closing price of 1.1087. Currently the 100 MA acts as a support, but a possible breakthrough would lead to 1.1045 and would reinforce the negative attitude.
victoriajensen
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EUR/USD is currently testing 1.1080. A breakout below that level will likely lead to a further drop towards 1.1000.
