K.I.S.S analysis EUR/USD

EUR/USD experienced an uneventful week and is ending flat. But the next week will bring much excitement over this pair.
 
The pair start the week with a bearish gap, found immediate support level around 1.1750. Focus turn to ECB this week.
 
On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD fell with a wide range and closed near the low of the day, however the currency pair managed to close within Thursday’s range, which suggests being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.

The currency pair is trading below the 10 and the 50-day moving averages that should provide dynamic resistance however is trading above 200-day moving averages that should provide dynamic support.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.2041, the 50-day moving average at 1.1861 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1829, the 10-day moving average at 1.1796 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1753 and a key level at 1.1684 (support).
 
EUR/USD continues consolidating between 1.1880 and 1.1725. So far there is no signal that consolidation will end and if it does it will probably be under the influence of the fundamentals later this week.
 
The short term outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish. The price is developing below its moving averages and indicators are located withing extreme oversold conditions.
 
On yesterday session, the EURUSD fell again but this time with a narrow range and closed in the middle of the daily range, in addition the currency pair managed to close below Friday’s low, which suggests a bearish momentum.

The currency pair is trading below the 10 and the 50-day moving averages that should provide dynamic resistance however is trading above 200-day moving averages that should provide dynamic support.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.2041, the 50-day moving average at 1.1857 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1829, the 10-day moving average at 1.1788 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1753 and a key level at 1.1684 (support).
 
EUR/USD formed a spinning top candlestick on the daily time-frame at 1.1717 so the pair will likely bounce off that level and start moving to the upside again, continuing the relatively wide consolidation below 1.1880.
 
EUR/USD moved slightly higher today, but couldn’t fight the 1.18 handle and reterated to 1.1760. The pair will stay in wait and see mode until ECB meeting this Thursday.
 
On yesterday session, the EURUSD initially rallied although found enough selling pressure near the 10-day moving average to erase most of its gains but closed in the green, in the middle of the daily range, in addition the currency pair managed to close within Monday’s range, which suggests being clearly neutral, neither side is showing control.

The currency pair is trading below the 10 and the 50-day moving averages that should provide dynamic resistance however is trading above 200-day moving averages that should provide dynamic support.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.2041, the 50-day moving average at 1.1853 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1829, the 10-day moving average at 1.1784 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1753 and a key level at 1.1684 (support).
 
EUR/USD ticked up today after the better than expected numbers on German IFO. The pair is currently trading at 1.1778, but let’s see if will be able to fight the resistance at 1.18.
 
On yesterday session, the EURUSD rallied with a wide range ahead of ECB crucial announcement and closed near the high of the day, in addition the currency pair managed to close above Tuesday’s high, which suggests a strong bullish momentum.

The currency pair is trading below the 50-day moving average that should provide dynamic resistance however is trading above 10 and the 200-day moving averages that should provide dynamic support.

The key levels to watch are: a daily resistance at 1.2041, the 50-day moving average at 1.1851 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1829, the 10-day moving average at 1.1790 (support), a daily support at 1.1753 and a key level at 1.1684 (support).
 
On Thursday, the euro rose in price against the dollar before the ECB meeting, which could end the period of the soft monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The dollar exchange rate has receded from the recent highs. The pair EUR/USD rose y 0.14% to 1.1827, retreating from the minimum for two weeks of 1.1724, recorded on Monday.
 
The euro rose on Thursday, while investors are waiting for details about the plans of the European Central Bank to start winding down the program of buying up bonds, while the dollar made a breather after the recent rally. The euro gained 0.16 percent against the dollar to $1.1831, moving away from Monday's two-week low at $1.1725.
 
After Draghi today the EUR/USD plunged to currently trade around 1.17. I think the pair will extend its decline towards the support at 1.1690 and in case of breaking it, next bearish challenge will be 1.1660.
 
EUR/USD is testing the support at 1.1670 which coincides with the (MA)89 indicator on the daily time-frame. A breakout below that level will probably lead to a further move to the downside towards 1.1600.
 
On yesterday session, the EURUSD dived with an extreme wide range and closed near the low of the day, in addition the currency pair managed to close below Wednesday’s low, which suggests a strong bearish momentum.

The currency pair is trading below the 10 and 50-day moving averages that should provide dynamic resistance however is trading above the 200-day moving average that should provide dynamic support.

The key levels to watch are: the 10-day moving average at 1.1757 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.1753, a key level at 1.1684 (resistance), the 1st head and shoulders target at 1.1593 (support), a daily support at 1.1558 and other daily support at 1.1460.
 
Previously called out positions were 13k units each, rated at roughly £/1 point. Totally, 8 positions were obtained along with some micro positions. The position sizes were held back to discourage copy trading.

247502d1509103685-k-i-s-s-trading-eur-usd-eurpos.jpg
 

Attachments

  • eurpos.jpg
    eurpos.jpg
    66.7 KB · Views: 473
EUR/USD plummeted after Draghi&Co and now has entered into bearish consolidation. US GDP ahead, let’s see how it will affect the pair.
 
EUR/USD is still very bearish and it may remain so next week. If it does the next target could be around 1.1400, even 1.1350.
 
Top