JY-Yen Futures

[jacson101]

Interesting article/s...two in all...one after the other...I think the news service in question might actually be setting articles up in currency pairing formats...usd/jpy...

Kroszner US Fed/samurai gov't lowering their own housing expectations...enjoy...
http://www.rttnews.com/economicnews.asp?date=10/22/2007&item=16

 

[Xymox]

thanx for the article.

 

[Xymox]

FX predicting FED cut.

 

[jacson101]

FX predicting FED cut.

...yep...
...but,there's only so much risk one should even think of taking when the market is not left to it's own vices...awaiting garnered mass appeal to confirm observations.

 

[Xymox]

dollar bearish exposure being removed in markets.

 

[jacson101]

Recalling the words of my youth...have at it! ...
watch for added relative strength in minors and crosses

 

[Xymox]

Recalling the words of my youth...have at it! ...
watch for added relative strength in minors and crosses

there are windows in currencies that are left open so that the samurai warriors can sell options /sell pipedreams the options profit on a yen appreciation, but as the window of profitability approaches, yen will depreciate to 124, making the options worthless.

 

[jacson101]

there are windows in currencies that are left open so that the samurai warriors can sell options /sell pipedreams the options profit on a yen appreciation, but as the window of profitability approaches, yen will depreciate to 124, making the options worthless.

...very very good trade you've just touched on...can confirm involvement in such concepts at the time of writing this...obviously I've been a little more confident in the minors and crosses lately, but nonetheless this particular instrument/trade...might have critical mass written all over it shortly.

 

[Xymox]

still favor a cheap yen. Dollar bear trade unwinding should benefit it.

 

[Xymox]

with the vol spike instigated by higher oil above 100, bonds spike up, equities spike down, carry trade spikes down. Oil spike up, Gold spikes up.

this is the ultimate trade.

 

[jacson101]

still favor a cheap yen. Dollar bear trade unwinding should benefit it.

Diddo...

 

[jacson101]

New structure for carry trade origination ( kampo restructured so as to "create" economic value by charging fee's for yen based loans)...
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/release/nt_cr07/ntyucho0709a.htm
...stats and other related theme doc's at the bottom of the page...

commitment lines growing at a 7% clip in Sepember...
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/stat/boj_stat/com/com0709.htm

 

[Xymox]

watch for central bank currency intervention before the next FED meeting.

 

[Xymox]

11/10/07 bias shifting to long.

 

[jacson101]

11/10/07 bias shifting to long.

Word has it that this last round of yen buying was lead by eastern european and german names, again.
Re-adjusting mortgage portfolio's...again...

 

[Xymox]

lot of dip buyers at this level, to wash them out, should head to 105,...

 

[Xymox]

Word has it that this last round of yen buying was lead by eastern european and german names, again.
Re-adjusting mortgage portfolio's...again...

thanx for the info.

 

[jacson101]

thanx for the info.

...Further on that note...these proprietary Level 3 accounting/risk mgmt. models for sub-slime differ from desk to desk.
I think the biggest mistake must be holding them as a portfolio rather than breaking them down...ie... strips, hedging every avenue of risk(insure) associated with them and marking to market daily.
Call me conservative but a profit is a profit.

If forced, watch for continued re-adjustments as avenues to square up yen loans from gamblin' names on the back of either locking up a profit or just covering losses.

 

[jacson101]

lot of dip buyers at this level, to wash them out, should head to 105,...

yep...but I still favour that 124 target...might take sometime for the latter...

 

[Xymox]

124 might take longer...there is a window of global negativity that has to be surmounted. An opptune time for the money masters to accumulate things of value before the next macro swing up.