John J Murphy in Europe: carefull trading for 1Q08

[charttrainerdotcom]

Hi Yall,

I had the opportunity to listen to the godfather of technical analysis last week. John Murphy demonstrated how he analyses the markets and which conclusions can be drawn from what he sees. Well, wrapping it all up he said that technical analysis, sector analysis and intermarket analysis all led to the same conclusion: the good times are over. For 1Q08 defensive late cyclicals like healthcare might be ok. All others are probably not going to do well.

Scroll through the Dow six month charts and the Dow constituents six months charts (Charttrainer) and the EuroStoxx (and constitutents) 6 months charts (Charttrainer)
and you will see that the charts do not really look attractive.

Maybe one of you guys could provide a nice Fibonacci analysis. I´m really bad at Fibos. But I guess that the first retractement (38%) is still some 2000 Dow points below the current Dow and we are likely to get to the first retracement.

What do you think?

John Murphys analysis was the best I´ve seen so far and I guess I´ll be very carefull on the equity long side.

 

[TWI]

wrapping it all up he said that technical analysis, sector analysis and intermarket analysis all led to the same conclusion: the good times are over

I bet he didn't have to go to Harvard to figure that one out.

 

[ampro]

I bet he didn't have to go to Harvard to figure that one out.

you're in crackin form today!!

 

[Crap Buddist]

doesnt that John Murphy bloke believe in selling then ? why should the good times be over?

 

[charttrainerdotcom]

Just scroll through the charts and check out what the 6 months figure tell you. Equity long does not look good. The sector analysis brings you to the conclusion that the late cyclicals are weak but still ok (the early and mid sectors are all bearish). Are there any bullish stocks around at all? Strong Gold, a weak USD, rising Oil Prices, etc. are high hurdles. Additionally the incredibly and ridiculously low interest rates (firing up inflation) in the US didn´t help to re-establish the bullish trend.

Compare the static Dow charts from July 2007 (indicator peaks) and Jan 2008.
July 2007:Charttrainer
Jan 2008:Charttrainer

I appreciate your opinions!

 

[croker]

Just scroll through the charts and check out what the 6 months figure tell you. Equity long does not look good. The sector analysis brings you to the conclusion that the late cyclicals are weak but still ok (the early and mid sectors are all bearish). Are there any bullish stocks around at all? Strong Gold, a weak USD, rising Oil Prices, etc. are high hurdles. Additionally the incredibly and ridiculously low interest rates (firing up inflation) in the US didn´t help to re-establish the bullish trend.

I dont really get what you're saying.. as Crap Buddist says, just find good shorts to make money on!

If you want feedback on the website with the charts I'd suggset get rid of the annoying ads.