Joey's MP Journal

[rathcoole_exile]

have a good weekend mate ! there were some good calls this week, next week will be much better for you (don't let 11 onside points slip thru your fingers again)
time and time again, I see the importance of pivot points, I watched in fascination last night as all the wild "volatility" that people complained about/commented upon, actually only swung between PPs.

There is definitely also some strong correlation between PPs, the POC and the VA

we have different ways of entering the trade, you seem to prefer limits, I prefer Stop entries, but our trigger points, targets etc seem to be similar.....

 

[Joey25]

have a good weekend mate ! there were some good calls this week, next week will be much better for you (don't let 11 onside points slip thru your fingers again)
time and time again, I see the importance of pivot points, I watched in fascination last night as all the wild "volatility" that people complained about/commented upon, actually only swung between PPs.

There is definitely also some strong correlation between PPs, the POC and the VA

we have different ways of entering the trade, you seem to prefer limits, I prefer Stop entries, but our trigger points, targets etc seem to be similar.....

Have a good weekend. I'm really upset I didn't trade the 1258.00, but the entry was just too close to the stop on the second trade and I was feeling frazzled. More a result of trading the Yesterday's Close as an entry, which I'm disappointed about.

PP and POC, provided the POC is well-defined and not a range, look good, particularly if they're not traded in the first 30 minutes of the pit session. A kind of Minus Development perhaps.

70% Value Areas not as useful in my opinion. I prefer the ones in the CBOT handbook, where it's that part of the profile without the buying and selling tails - the first parts of the profile that are 2 or more TPOs wide (like the 1258.00 yesterday!)

Thanks for pointing me in the direction of Pivot Points. I'm going to work with the central one at first and take it from there.

Joey

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Thanks for pointing me in the direction of Pivot Points. I'm going to work with the central one at first and take it from there.

Joey

Joey i tried to post some screen shots of my charts showing the various PPs from yesterday - there seems to be a site-wide fault but as soon as its fixed I'll put something up on ES Tonight
the pics are very powerful in showing the utility of the various PPs.
I am convinced there is much benefit to be derived from combining PPs with MP ...

garry

 

[Joey25]

Joey i tried to post some screen shots of my charts showing the various PPs from yesterday - there seems to be a site-wide fault but as soon as its fixed I'll put something up on ES Tonight
the pics are very powerful in showing the utility of the various PPs.
I am convinced there is much benefit to be derived from combining PPs with MP ...

garry

Definitely. We're talking WILD bounces aswell! 10 points off the PP in about 4 minutes.

I'm a bit confused about weekly pivots, so I'll look forward to seeing that.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

Definitely. We're talking WILD bounces aswell! 10 points off the PP in about 4 minutes.

it's stunning enough off on a time-based candlestick chart (I usually use 4 mins, so one bar just went up and up and up), but watching it live on the 233 tick was amazing !

 

[Joey25]

Point of Control Week Ending July 11th

There are 2 ways of examining how the Point of Control moved over the week.
The first is to lay the profiles side by side and observe the general trend throughout the week:

July 7th: 1247.25
July 8th: 1256.25
July 9th: 1273.25
July 10th: 1247.00
July 11th: 1235.75

So up until Wednesday value trended upwards, but on Thursday deteriorated sharply to Monday's levels, finally falling further on Friday.

The alternative is to construct what Don Jones of CISCO refers to as the "5-day Overlay Demand Curve". This is a merge of all the profiles into one big profile.

The Point of Control for the merge is 1247.00

I'll be interested to see how the market reacts at this level.

 

[rathcoole_exile]

The alternative is to construct what Don Jones of CISCO refers to as the "5-day Overlay Demand Curve". This is a merge of all the profiles into one big profile.

The Point of Control for the merge is 1247.00

which falls at exactly the new Weekly Pivot Point :idea:

(well, within 1 point of it anyway...)

 

[Joey25]

which falls at exactly the new Weekly Pivot Point :idea:

The next question is: which performs better - one which is updated only at the end of the week, or one which is updated on a rolling basis?

Anyway, the convention appears to be once a week for Pivot Points and rolling (e.g combining Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Monday) for the Overlay.

 

[Joey25]

Thoughts going into the open

The market is still struggling to break through and develop above the 1258.00 level.
Another failure spike through that level in the overnight session.

I've entered the following limit order:

Sell at 1267.75
Stop at 1271.00
Target at 1263.75.

However, I may switch to:

Sell at 1257.75
Stop at 1261.25
Target at 1253.75

a little later on.

 

[Joey25]

Modified order

I have now modified the order to:

Sell at 1257.75
Stop at 1261.25
Target at 1253.75

The protective stop is placed above the overnight high, which in turn comes in around the downward sloping trendline on the daily bar chart.

 

[Joey25]

New order

As the end of the half hour approaches, I'm anticipating the following new trade:

Sell at 1232.50
Stop at 1236.50
Target at 1228.50

It is a trade positioned ahead of today's single prints, with the stop above Friday's Point of Control. It needs to be filled in the subsequent half hour or I'll pull it.

 

[Joey25]

As the end of the half hour approaches, I'm anticipating the following new trade:

Sell at 1232.50
Stop at 1236.50
Target at 1228.50

It is a trade positioned ahead of today's single prints, with the stop above Friday's point of Control. It needs to be filled in the subsequent half hour or I'll pull it.

It rallied to within 1 tick of my order and then fell and hit the target. However, I'm not too upset as the trade played out as expected.

I had been placing my orders too far ahead of the levels and this can compromise the overall structure of the trade. Overall , I think it's better to miss a few trades, rather than pay a "tax" on every one.

 

[Joey25]

Key Numbers EPU8 for use July 15th

RTH High = 1256.00

5-day Overlay Point of Control = 1247.00

Daily Pivot Point = 1237.83

Daily Point of Control = 1229.75.

 

[Joey25]

1st Order of the Day

The first order I've entered is:

Sell at 1229.00
Stop at 1232.00
Target at 1225.00

It's a development of the overnight highs around yesterday's Point of Control.

A long way from the action currently, but in the context of Bernanke giving testimony, perahps not.

 

[Joey25]

July 15th Trade 1

Sold at 1229.00
Stop at 1232.00
Exit at 1226.25
Gross p/l = +2.75

Have now entered the following order:

Sell at 1237.75
Stop at 1240.75
Target at 1233.75

This is the mean of a small balance area from yesterday confluent with the Daily Pivot Point.

 

[Joey25]

15th July End of Day

Trade 1
Sold at 1229.00
Exit at 1226.25
Gross p/l = +2.75

Total = +2.75

 

[Joey25]

Key Numbers EPU8 for use July 16th

Daily High = 1235.75

5-day Overlay Point of Control = 1232.25

Daily Point of Control = 1225.75

Daily Pivot Point = 1216.00

 

[Joey25]

Thoughts for today

Bernanke is giving testimony at 9.00am and FOMC minutes out at 13.00pm.

A few trading ideas for today are:

1) Selling Yesterday's Point of Control
Sell at 1225.50
Stop at 1228.25
Target at 1221.50

2) Selling the Weekly Point of Control
Sell at 1232.00
Stop at 1234.25
Target at 1228.00

3) Selling Yesterday's Daily High
Sell at 1235.50
Stop at 1239.50
Target at 1231.50

I'll be halting trading for at least half an hour around the FOMC minutes.

 

[Joey25]

1st Order

I've entered the first order:

Sell at 1232.00
Stop at 1234.25
Target at 1228.00

The stop on this one is placed above the bottom of yesterday's Selling Tail.

The market has already tested yesterday's Point of Contol and had quite a bounce.

 

[Joey25]

Trade 1 July 16th

Sold at 1232.00
Stop at 1234.25
Target at 1228.00
Exit at 1233.00
Gross p/l = -1.00

Have now entered the order:

Sell at 1235.50
Stop at 1239.50
Target at 1231.50

If not filled by 12.45, will pull the order and wait until at least 30 minutes after the release of the FOMC minutes.