Japan is already in a depression

[godoftrading]

naked capitalism: Veneroso: Japan on the Edge of the Abyss

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN DATA THIS BAD FOR ANY MAJOR ECONOMY – EVEN IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION. December industrial production came in down 9.6%, worse than the METI forecast. It is now down almost 21% year over year. METI forecasts a further 4.7% decline in February. The inventory to production ratio soared again. Maybe METI will be correct.

If it is, Japan industrial production will have fallen 28% (non annualized) in four months. It will have fallen by a third in about a year. Nothing in the history of major nations compares. A 28% decline in four months would be more than half of the entire decline in U.S. industrial production over the 3 years and nine months of the U.S. Great Depression.

It would be a greater decline in four months than in any 12 month period in the Great Depression in the U.S. We are literally looking at the unimaginable.

IT’S A DEPRESSION IN JAPAN – ALREADY – PURE AND SIMPLE.

 

[fibo_trader]

Fibo loves to go back in History and see what malagutti's brothers and sisters were thinking at major stock market bottoms and tops. Why? Its Fibo's specialty, the thing he loves, no different from Clint saying his first love is acting.

Malagutti scoffs at my usage of the HERD. But he is small fry, as much as I love him and I do mean that, I'm quite fond of malagutti, he is a duffer and its questionable if I gave him grace marks that he would be able to pass.

So without further ado let's have a good look at malaguttis clown sheep aka HERD operate ...?

Note: Fibo's Law; the Herd extrapolates an extant trend to infinity. They cannot turn on a dime. they in fact never think a trend that has been in effect for along period of time will ever reverse. They are in fact sure it will go on forever.

So let's have a good look at this op - nothing personal

Time of post is Feb 4th, 2009 - just one month later Japan reversed and blasted north. So did the world. So you see, once again, as fibo has said so often, look at the emotion in what the HERD members say - look at the level of certainty in their utterances and when they put it on the front page of a magazine or paper or thread, pay attention. The TURN is coming.

Fibo takes out his pistols and cleans them and gets ready for the close short and reverse and go LONG.

Can anybody here imagine even more than a handful of people worldwide with kahunas big enough to plunk down dough when there is death and destruction in the streets rampant everywhere? No baby, nobody got the balls to take that kind of chance. But fubo will take the swing and not just a swing, a big swing. He could die but that won't stop him.

 

[fibo_trader]

So let's have a good look at the heavy duty bearishness on Feb 4, 2009

Edge of the Abyss
There has never been data this bad for ANY Economy - Even in the Great Depression (this gets a 5-star instant Fibo attention)
He goes on and on and on, then he says the magic words, "literally looking at the unimaginable" (Fibo jumps up and stands at attention)

The rest of T2W is in the same boat, all petrified. If Malagutti was alive back then he was short and got wiped out on the first day of reversal in March 2009.


So let's look at Japan's Nikkei 225

 

[fibo_trader]

Fibonacci Extension of the First Wave as shown gives the high odds end of decline at 261.8%. I mean the odds of the decline halting at that level are huge. Fibo would have no problem placing a bet on such good odds.

Remember chaps, this is just a Fibonacci Extension grid

Just absolutely f***in beautiful. Fibo got the magnificent country of Japan by the balls in one shot. She can never escape my clutches from here on out. she now belongs to me. Anything that happens in Japan, I can nail it before anybody else does, and well in advance of anyone even dreaming of such an outcome. This includes the Yen, the dollar yen, the gbp/yen or whatever. I've got my finger on the pulse of japan.

 

[fibo_trader]

This here is an EXPANSION or PROJECTION grid - it uses the larger waves shown as A and B as reference points for projection and expansion


See the golden Ratio hit at 61.8%? F***in sheer music to me

 

[new_trader]

So deadbroke fibo using the stock market as a proxy for the economy...that cracks me up! I love you brother! How about disputing the actual data in the OP instead of posting pretty coloured lines?

2009...around the time when the Global Central banks were engaged in what could be argued the biggest monetary experiment in history, QE...opeartion twist...ZIRP and almost 10 years later none have been able to normalise interest rates but are close to cutting again instead...

Japan's central bank printing money like crazy and buying stocks...man I love you brother fibo...

I like this chart...but the DATA fibo, talk about the data...no more pretty coloured lines...please...I await your reply...

 

[fibo_trader]

Creme de la creme ............................ instructions for the grid are in the chart itself ...........................


A perfect hit at 261.8% for Wave 3 - an impossible feat but Fibo has done it. Robert Prechter has written, "Third waves are wonders to behold in sheer breadth and majesty and speed and power" He could never master 'em.

Fibo flogged 'em all

 

[fibo_trader]

So deadbroke fibo using the stock market as a proxy for the economy...that cracks me up! I love you brother! How about disputing the actual data in the OP instead of posting pretty coloured lines?

2009...around the time when the Global Central banks were engaged in what could be argued the biggest monetary experiment in history, QE...opeartion twist...ZIRP and almost 10 years later none have been able to normalise interest rates but are close to cutting again instead...

Japan's central bank printing money like crazy and buying stocks...man I love you brother fibo...

I like this chart...but the DATA fibo, talk about the data...no more pretty coloured lines...please...I await your reply...

View attachment 265385

I wondered what happened to you a while back. You come out once a month on the same date usually and give me a vaginal effluvium bath. Then I slap you around for a bit and you retreat to a cave with dictionary to look up the words I've used, hahahahahahahahahaha. God, do I love it so! The last time you were so hung up on "effluvium" that you forgot to look up "coterminus" "perspicacious" "antediluvian" "mulct"

This time, try to stay, don't bolt. Your recovery time after a brief meeting with fibo is approx. 30 days. Stay and talk, missie. If you want a date, ask. I thought I made all this clear the last time.


In answer to your question about DATA, are you just plain daft? that's fundamental Analysis you're talking about, Central banks, who is fckin who, gosssip, News, all bs etc. . this here what I have shown supersedes all forms of fundamental analysis as it stems from the SENTIMENT of the HERD with TA added to do the calculations for where the hits occur.


Your court, doll. Talk to me baby, without bolting this time.

 

[fibo_trader]

Doll, see if you can dig this concept. If you can, then you will truly understand why FA is unnecessary. Pay attention, now

Let's say I'm in the mountains far away from civ with no humans, no News, no phone no TV, no nothing but magically my charts are updated automatically daily and I can access my broker account too.

So, all I have is the Indices and stocks and Sentiment data like DSI, VIX and data from Sentiment Trader. that's it. No fundamental data, no news about bankers or Trump or any such thing.

I could still trade the stock any stock with close to 85% positive odds of success.

Now if somehow I were to have access to T2W to see what the dumb schmucks like you are thinking about a trend nearing frothy conditions, I could take that to 100% odds.

But there is still no FA in the equation.

Kapiche?

 

[new_trader]

I love you brother.. When you or anyone has a hissy fit and starts slapping like a hysterical woman I retreat, it's neither polite or manly to strike a woman when she is raging. Walk away until the vaginal effluvium has all seeped out and sanity has been restored is the best course of action.

As for the DATA, it wasn't me who started this thread, it was the OP(godoftrading) and YOU are the one that replied with pretty coloured lines, remember? That's how it went, I'm sure of it.

Now, put your crayons down and discuss the DATA...please...I await your reply, I love you brother...sister

 

[fibo_trader]

The March 2009 low examination continues tomorrow - and for the doll (new_trader) note that this is no different than what I am doing for the current SPX TOP CALL. Same stuff basically even though I'm having a harder time as is obvious and well documented in real time in my thread. Actually I still believe that my CALL is perfect as the TOP in January 26, 2018 is THE TOP. But we will have to put this aside and wait for months to go by as its still ongoing and revisit it. Right now the pattern is just about concluding. So we wait.


Amigos, will continue this tomorrow as I'm not finished. Gots to hit the sack now.

Tomorrow I will move away from PURE PRICE action and go into the use of Trendlines and moving averages and Indicators to see how nicely all of that kind of stuff jives together with my SENTIMENT/FIBO techniques.

One thing is for sure. More bitches will show up to fck with Fibo. That's just the way it is. God, do I love it so!

 

[fibo_trader]

I love you brother.. When you or anyone has a hissy fit and starts slapping like a hysterical woman I retreat, it's neither polite or manly to strike a woman when she is raging. Walk away until the vaginal effluvium has all seeped out and sanity has been restored is the best course of action.

As for the DATA, it wasn't me who started this thread, it was the OP(godoftrading) and YOU are the one that replied with pretty coloured lines, remember? That's how it went, I'm sure of it.

Now, put your crayons down and discuss the DATA...please...I await your reply, I love you brother...sister

Tomorrow for sure, whatever you want to discuss. I'm knda tired now, its 1:00 AM. Good night, doll

 

[new_trader]

OK, but keep to the topic. I'll keep it simple.

Did your pretty coloured lines disprove the original premise that "IT’S A DEPRESSION IN JAPAN – ALREADY – PURE AND SIMPLE"?

I can't wait for your reply sister, goodnight, I love you

 

[fibo_trader]

OK, but keep to the topic. I'll keep it simple.

Did your pretty coloured lines disprove the original premise that "IT’S A DEPRESSION IN JAPAN – ALREADY – PURE AND SIMPLE"?

I can't wait for your reply sister, goodnight, I love you

NO, NO NO, you have totally misunderstood the thread basis, Love. Totally misunderstood. So here, let me s-plain ........

The opening post of the thread (by the op of course) perfectly describes the ongoing, extant situation in the crashing psyche and Economy at that time, namely early 2009. Anybody alive at that time SAW it in their everyday lives, on the street, on TV in the News, in conversations, at the Labor Dept. looking for jobs, in the unemployment rate, at the bread lines, at the YMCA, at the Salvation Army, at the business failures ............. recession and depression everywhere you look.

FIBO reiterates the above paragraph in that that is exactly what fibo sees = same as what the op sees and has written.

NO DISAGREEMENT with op.

But where FIBO separates from op is that the op continues to be swamped by the heavy duty BEARISH environ and thinks it will go on forever, whereas Fibo knows that the END of the crash is at hand and is preparing to go LONG.

Do you dig what I am saying?

 

[fibo_trader]

NO, NO NO, you have totally misunderstood the thread basis, Love. Totally misunderstood. So here, let me s-plain ........

The opening post of the thread (by the op of course) perfectly describes the ongoing, extant situation in the crashing psyche and Economy at that time, namely early 2009. Anybody alive at that time SAW it in their everyday lives, on the street, on TV in the News, in conversations, at the Labor Dept. looking for jobs, in the unemployment rate, at the bread lines, at the YMCA, at the Salvation Army, at the business failures ............. recession and depression everywhere you look.

FIBO reiterates the above paragraph in that that is exactly what fibo sees = same as what the op sees and has written.

NO DISAGREEMENT with op.

But where FIBO separates from op is that the op continues to be swamped by the heavy duty BEARISH environ and thinks it will go on forever, whereas Fibo knows that the END of the crash is at hand and is preparing to go LONG.

Do you dig what I am saying?

Read my answer in quote above first, then read this .................

Another crucial area where Fibo is totally different and separate from the op is that Fibo already saw what was coming at least a year to 2 years before the crash of 1990 began. The op on the other hand would not ever be able to see such things, he would continue to think everything was hunkydory sweetness and light and economy would be rosy forever.

So, whateve the op wrote in this thread's opening post in early 2009, Fibo already knew all of that shit was coming from as early as let's say 1988, 2 years before the 1990 top - because in a depression that is the type of shit that goes down - standard ugly, filthy stuff.

So to put it a different way, what the op sees after the fact, Fibo has already seen when there was no indication of such an outcome. Dig?

 

[fibo_trader]

naked capitalism: Veneroso: Japan on the Edge of the Abyss

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN DATA THIS BAD FOR ANY MAJOR ECONOMY – EVEN IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION. December industrial production came in down 9.6%, worse than the METI forecast. It is now down almost 21% year over year. METI forecasts a further 4.7% decline in February. The inventory to production ratio soared again. Maybe METI will be correct.

If it is, Japan industrial production will have fallen 28% (non annualized) in four months. It will have fallen by a third in about a year. Nothing in the history of major nations compares. A 28% decline in four months would be more than half of the entire decline in U.S. industrial production over the 3 years and nine months of the U.S. Great Depression.

It would be a greater decline in four months than in any 12 month period in the Great Depression in the U.S. We are literally looking at the unimaginable.

IT’S A DEPRESSION IN JAPAN – ALREADY – PURE AND SIMPLE.

My condolences. this op is no longer alive. His extreme bearishness when he should instead have turned bullish, has killed him. No doubt he went totally bust as did zillions of others. This man was a trader. I can just tell. Moment of silence for him. His last post was March 20 = the 2 big green candles on SPX & Nikkei wiped him out. He could have been on Life support then, but the next green candles snuffed out his life for good.


Damn shame, I could have saved him.

 

[fibo_trader]

Continuing what the op started but this time instead of a depression we have a frothy high optimism Economic Expansion, i.e. the exact opposite. Therefore in the same vein as what the op saw in the depression we now see in the current Economic Expansion, i.e. everything looks great, rosy, shiny, loads of jobs, high optimism, the good life will go on forever, its a new era, it will never change, it will just get better and better so lets go buy buy buy more stuff, the good times are going to go on forever ...............


Fibo steps in and calls the exact opposite. Prepare for Nikkei crash of epic proportions.


stay tuned ................

 

[fibo_trader]

What would op write today? Economy is GREAT, stock market is booking, everything looks promising, optimism is super high, by buy buy go LONG and just hold stocks for years.

But Fibo advises SELL SELL SELL

See the Fibo confluence levels? Price has gone right into the confluence.

One trendline is broken. If the 2nd one breaks its outright folly to still be in LONG.

When would I have personally sold all Longs and buggered off (no shorts)? Why of course on January 26, the same day I called the TOP worldwide. Japan's Top was right around there. And even better is that on that day, japan hit the 50% Fib retracement level = more compelling reason to TP

 

[fibo_trader]

No wonder deadbroke dumped new_trader and left her high and dry. "Entitlement = worst feature in a bitch nowadays"
Answer her questions, but you won't even get a "thanks"

Now she tries the same sh*t with Fibo

 

[fibo_trader]

Read post #18 for Japan conditions today as would likely be written by the op .............. when that trendline breaks, the op will have once again been on the wrong side of the TREND. A common occurrence at all forums. always too late, always wrong, never see the turn coming.