It's Non Farm Payroll time again.. What about this for an idea ?

[nkruger]

Afternoon Peeps.

Has anyone on these hallowed boards used the ADP Report (released a couple of days before the NFP) to help with a prediction for Friday's bounce in the market at 1.30pm (UK time) ?

Nick

 

[bbmac]

I'm not sure that any of the large players consider the ADP report re possible NFp number as very credible. Certainly it seems to be slightly more reliable since the wild predictions that precipitated their re-evaluation of the calculus behind the forecast but it's no more reliable than any other.

Today they are publishing a gain in NFP of +130k for Friday's actual number which appears well above the consensus +40-60k addition. last month's =18k overall and the drop in manuf jobs and rise in un-emp rate to 5.0% certainly dispappointed although the market didn't really react very much as you might have thought.

 

[vladv]

The NFP data is bad news for USD this month.....it seems.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

This must be confusing the hell out of everyone. Last revised up, -17k Jan, unemplyment at 4.9 v 5E. I know the whole market is one big BS field but ...

 

[bbmac]

Thanks gamma, saw that. Don't worry, this -18k will be recised up next month, Lol!!