FetteredChinos
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oops, spoke too soon lol..
nefariousbaffler
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I know this system is for spot on. I, however, only trade fx...does the breakout system work for that as well? I'm not too familiar with spot on so I'm not aware of the differences, if any, between the two. Thank you.
neil
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???
Spot is another name for fx ( foreign exchange.)
Look at the links for fx ( foreign exchange)
http://www.fxcm.co.uk/fxcm_UK_forex_trading.html
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/
(Scroll down to the forum on "Currency" "Forex" )
Lots of articles there and books.
Oh - one more:
http://www.aboutforex.com/
Good luck
nefariousbaffler said:
Spot is another name for fx ( foreign exchange.)
Look at the links for fx ( foreign exchange)
http://www.fxcm.co.uk/fxcm_UK_forex_trading.html
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/
(Scroll down to the forum on "Currency" "Forex" )
Lots of articles there and books.
Oh - one more:
http://www.aboutforex.com/
Good luck
Last edited:
techcherry
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hi
just a questio jt do you count with the3% rule for the breakout or just the first move out of the latest high/low you take like a break out?
sorry my ignorance still a lot to learn,and the best thing is to ask to the ones who know about by experience!
thanks...
just a questio jt do you count with the3% rule for the breakout or just the first move out of the latest high/low you take like a break out?
sorry my ignorance still a lot to learn,and the best thing is to ask to the ones who know about by experience!
thanks...
New member - handle with care!
Having been watching and testing for a while I have come out of the forum closet and introduce myself as an escapee from share dealing.
Big thanks to Jonny for the system and Fettered for all his help.
So here I am day 1! I evaluate the 7 - 10 am period as 2020/2079 and entered a buy at 2080 at around 10.20. I have a s/L at 2045. Am I on the same planet or lost the plot?
Comments (yes, heard all the Welsh sheep jokes), would be appreciated
Cheers!
Having been watching and testing for a while I have come out of the forum closet and introduce myself as an escapee from share dealing.
Big thanks to Jonny for the system and Fettered for all his help.
So here I am day 1! I evaluate the 7 - 10 am period as 2020/2079 and entered a buy at 2080 at around 10.20. I have a s/L at 2045. Am I on the same planet or lost the plot?
Comments (yes, heard all the Welsh sheep jokes), would be appreciated
Cheers!
FetteredChinos
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looks about right to me Mal
dont be deterred by a few losses though.
looks like im about to be stopped out on another of my trades for -40
FC
dont be deterred by a few losses though.
looks like im about to be stopped out on another of my trades for -40
FC
Been trading the Eurodollar for the past four days, and see that the 35 point stop loss would have been hit every time. Is that a record, to have 4 losing days in a row with the 35 point stop in place?
Mal, I sold the Euro at the same point as you, just about - never mind, eh?!
Echo the comments of others, though, in thanking Johnny T for putting up the simple, unsubjective system for us to look at.
Ben
Mal, I sold the Euro at the same point as you, just about - never mind, eh?!
Echo the comments of others, though, in thanking Johnny T for putting up the simple, unsubjective system for us to look at.
Ben
FetteredChinos
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god no, with the 35 point stop, you are going to get an awful lot more than 4 losers in a row. i cant recall the stats from the backtesting done by 3rdDawn et al, but i think we got 4 or 5 a couple of times. and remember, things could always be worse in the future, so that is why position sizing is important.
but looking objectively.
4 or 5 losses in a row only equals 175 points.
without using a stop (as was first posted) you could clear 175 and then some in a single day.
losses are your friend. im coming round to negative psychology now - i like losing and hate the winners. bizarrely it has done wonders for my P&L in the last 4 weeks now lol.
FC
but looking objectively.
4 or 5 losses in a row only equals 175 points.
without using a stop (as was first posted) you could clear 175 and then some in a single day.
losses are your friend. im coming round to negative psychology now - i like losing and hate the winners. bizarrely it has done wonders for my P&L in the last 4 weeks now lol.
FC
Sorry, my question might have given me the air of someone who's looking for a next-to-failsafe system, which of course refuses to exist, despite our efforts to find it. I think I perhaps just misread 3rdDawn's posts.
I'm far from tearing my hair out anyway, and am grateful for the chance to enter Forex trading by looking at a nice, straightforward system - always prefer those!
Regards,
Ben
I'm far from tearing my hair out anyway, and am grateful for the chance to enter Forex trading by looking at a nice, straightforward system - always prefer those!
Regards,
Ben
Johnny are you sure there is no stoploss? Couldn't you put one that would at least save 75% of your account? What would happen if something crashed. But the backtesting looks pretty promosing, without a stoploss.
What would you set as the 'take profit' 80 pips?
What would you set as the 'take profit' 80 pips?
FetteredChinos
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Ilia, profit targets are generally a bad idea for trend following strategies. fine for intraday "scalping" when you are looking for 5-20pts here and there, but the nature of this system is that it tries to capture the bit 200+pointers that occur from time to time. if you are cutting out these, its like having a few losing trades in a row. by all means scale out of positions in order to bank some profit (as i do), but you are probably better off letting them run 'til bedtime.
have a look at the spreadsheets that 3rddawn has posted up on here. and i know we are only looking at a small selection of trades, but having a profit objective of even 100pts cuts down the overall profit considerably.
besides, banking a 200pointer is always a nice feeling
FC
have a look at the spreadsheets that 3rddawn has posted up on here. and i know we are only looking at a small selection of trades, but having a profit objective of even 100pts cuts down the overall profit considerably.
besides, banking a 200pointer is always a nice feeling
FC
Thanks FC, I will trade this system live and see if I can find any modifications? Probably not as it is a v. good system. Banking a 200 pointer is a good feeling
(EDIT)
P.S Now that we are on BST, British Summer Time, will the trading hours be 8 - 11? or still 7 - 10
(EDIT)
P.S Now that we are on BST, British Summer Time, will the trading hours be 8 - 11? or still 7 - 10
PitBull
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3rdDawn
Big hand to you putting together the backtest data and double big hand for JonnyT in sharing his systems.
I dont know about other newbies but this style of trading is what Ive been looking for for the past year or so, i.e. because I work for a living, I can access real time charts to check the signals, put in my orders and leave them to the end of the day and relax. Also suits my impatient streak as can trade this way every day. Like others on this thread, am still paper trading this and will be committing funds pretty damn quick!
3rddawn - Is it possible to see your VBA code on your 7-10am spreadsheet?, as I want to tweak it a bit and concatenate the 1min file into something a bit more managable.
many thanks
Pitbull
Big hand to you putting together the backtest data and double big hand for JonnyT in sharing his systems.
I dont know about other newbies but this style of trading is what Ive been looking for for the past year or so, i.e. because I work for a living, I can access real time charts to check the signals, put in my orders and leave them to the end of the day and relax. Also suits my impatient streak as can trade this way every day. Like others on this thread, am still paper trading this and will be committing funds pretty damn quick!
3rddawn - Is it possible to see your VBA code on your 7-10am spreadsheet?, as I want to tweak it a bit and concatenate the 1min file into something a bit more managable.
many thanks
Pitbull
If you download the spreadsheet (somewhere on this thread), then do Alt F11 you should get the VBA up. Should be in the code for Sheet1. I should also point out that credit for the VBA structure goes to JT, I just modified it from his 7am spreadsheet to trade the 7-10am strategy and have some flexibility in parameter setting.
Thinking about concatenating data ... I suppose the only thing to beware of is if you compress it too much and it ends up with a stop-out and trade trigger point in the same row of compressed data, you don't know which it traded first. But as you'll have the original data file as well, you can compare results and see if it makes any difference.
Apols if teaching gran to suck eggs, just thinking aloud really ...
pm me if you need any more help with the vba.
3rddawn
Thinking about concatenating data ... I suppose the only thing to beware of is if you compress it too much and it ends up with a stop-out and trade trigger point in the same row of compressed data, you don't know which it traded first. But as you'll have the original data file as well, you can compare results and see if it makes any difference.
Apols if teaching gran to suck eggs, just thinking aloud really ...
pm me if you need any more help with the vba.
3rddawn
B S T
Having read the back test and all the data on the forum I would like to revisit the comment a few posts ago regarding time. During the back testing period and subsequent recording of data we have in the UK drifted an hour. I also note that the loss period (via s losses) has been greater than a few months ago. Could this one hour time change be the key?
.........or maybe I should go back to sleep!
Having read the back test and all the data on the forum I would like to revisit the comment a few posts ago regarding time. During the back testing period and subsequent recording of data we have in the UK drifted an hour. I also note that the loss period (via s losses) has been greater than a few months ago. Could this one hour time change be the key?
.........or maybe I should go back to sleep!
No I don't think so.
All systems go through good and bad patches.
Gor example this is a current trading record for one of the systems I trade:
6 big winners in a row
10 small losers in a row
I do not know what tomorrow will bring but I'm still $5000 up per contract over this recent period.
Normally the winners and losers are more evenly spread but this reflects 6 good trending days followed by 5 up and down days.
The people trading the Spot On will have had a similar experience although that trades only once per day.
JonnyT
All systems go through good and bad patches.
Gor example this is a current trading record for one of the systems I trade:
6 big winners in a row
10 small losers in a row
I do not know what tomorrow will bring but I'm still $5000 up per contract over this recent period.
Normally the winners and losers are more evenly spread but this reflects 6 good trending days followed by 5 up and down days.
The people trading the Spot On will have had a similar experience although that trades only once per day.
JonnyT
Hi All,
I downloaded 3rddawns excellent spreadsheet and started tinkering around with the parameters and was truly amazed at the effects this had on overall profit for the system.
These were my 'optimum' settings (and before anyone reminds me yes, I know this is a 'fit' for the historic data).
EUR/$
Analysis time frame 02.30 to 05.30 (US time)
Stoploss 23
Pips to trigger point 12
Stop time 16 (18 gave slightly better result)
Profit target Infinite
This gave 46% winning bets with total profit of 1623 pips or 30 pips per day. Biggest drawdown was a mere 96 pips.
Simply changing the 'pips to trigger point' from 12 to 9 knocks 233 pips off the profit!
Does anyone have data for April so I can test this? If not I will try and download it from somewhere.
Kev.
I downloaded 3rddawns excellent spreadsheet and started tinkering around with the parameters and was truly amazed at the effects this had on overall profit for the system.
These were my 'optimum' settings (and before anyone reminds me yes, I know this is a 'fit' for the historic data).
EUR/$
Analysis time frame 02.30 to 05.30 (US time)
Stoploss 23
Pips to trigger point 12
Stop time 16 (18 gave slightly better result)
Profit target Infinite
This gave 46% winning bets with total profit of 1623 pips or 30 pips per day. Biggest drawdown was a mere 96 pips.
Simply changing the 'pips to trigger point' from 12 to 9 knocks 233 pips off the profit!
Does anyone have data for April so I can test this? If not I will try and download it from somewhere.
Kev.