Is now a good time to learn to trade?

[tscoop27]

I started taking a serious interest in trading the markets since last September (08) when I was trying to help somebody out with their finances (just doing a bit of research really)

I opened an online account and then a spreadbetting account and have had some successes and some failures - all in all about even and probably down to luck than any particular system.

WHat I wanted to ask the more experienced people on here is whether they thought the last 6/7 months is a good time to learn and 'if' the markets return to any type of normality will some experience in this type of testing ground be good preparation.

I am guessing that low volatility/stagnation has its own set of problems but it would be good to hear the more seasoned take on things

 

[hwsteele]

Well I don't think there is ever a "perfect" or even a "better" time to start trading.
For that matter I don't think that any one type of market is inherently easier to trade.
There are only three types of markets really.
1: Trending
2: Range bound or consolidating.
3: And dead.

The best way to trade in a trending market is NOT the best way to trade in a range bound market and of course the opposite is true also.
A dead market is one that moves so little that "normal" trading does not net much. Although if you can buy options on that market you can do something along the lines of a calendar spread to milk some money out of it.
And to tell the truth, a dead market is just a VERY range bound market.

If you naturally trade better in a trending market then of course you would do better starting out in that kind of market. If you find it easier to trade in a range bound market(if you are a contrarian) then that kind of market would be the best to start trading in.

So the bottom line is you have to know your self(well) to be able to answer that question.

Oh and I should add that if you have poor money management skills that you will shoot yourself in the foot no matter what you preferred trading style is.

All just IMHO

 

[ZonaTrader]

I began trading spot forex in or about September 08 as well, and I have asked myself this question too a few times. I would be interested to hear more on this subject. Not so much as if it is a good time to learn, but just what/ if there are any pros / cons with experiencing such volatility this early in my career.

 

[new_trader]

No. I read somewhere that a good time to have learned trading was in June 1954. So really, you missed it. They say the next good time will be August 2074.

 

[hwsteele]

No. I read somewhere that a good time to have learned trading was in June 1954. So really, you missed it. They say the next good time will be August 2074.

Ah yes the old 120 year "good time" cycle. I missed the first one. BUT when the second one rolls around I will be about 99 years old. So there is a good chance I won't remember what I did or knew the day before every time I wake up in the morning. If that's the case then relearning to trade in August 2074 should be great! :cheesy:

 

[everyonerich]

dont learn trading, you will lose, instead concentrate on 'what if..'

for eg:

what if... trade entry, market go against you.. what you do?

 

[SirFrancis]

I'm not sure that there is a particularly good or bad time to learn to trade. Whenever you learn, the lessons learnt from those particular market conditions will hold you in good stead time and time again in the future when conditions are similar. You will then need to learn again and again as market conditions evolve and move away from newly learnt ground.
Bare in mind that while you are learning the basics, you should be paper trading and only move to real money trading when you can evidence (to you wife?) that you are making a little more than you are loosing - this right of passage is perhaps best imbarked upon in difficult trading conditions.

 

[ZonaTrader]

Thanks GammaJammer, and to the other posters. In my opinion trading is a career / activity that experiences such high rates of attrition that regardless of when you learn doesn't necessarily have that large of an impact on if you will last. Like most posters are saying, psychological and behavioral aptitude have the greatest impact on survival.

The root of what I'm getting at is I hear many market participants speak about the traders who were washed out when the full on bull market of the late 90s came to an abrupt halt. Those worth their salt either saw it coming (very select few), or adapted. Will a major event like the one we experienced in 2008 produce a new breed of traders. Of course traders will have to adapt but what about those who learned in the midst of it?

Not looking for an answer just interested to hear opinions

 

[new_trader]

I think that it's a double edged sword myself. Firstly the bad - it's probably more expensive at the moment as when you make a mistake it's going to get punished. Hard.

Don't see why that should be the case if you keep tight stops. :whistling

The really smart people will tell you that now is/is not a good time and maybe next week will be better!

I'm not that smart. You see, trading for me has meant many 1000's of hours of study and practice and many $1000 lost in learning. This has spanned close to 4 years now
Sure, the smart people will draw pretty charts with pretty coloured lines and circles with clear instructions on when to enter, exit and where to put your STOP. Just follow those instructions and you will make millions. They don't give any caveats on when you should follow those instructions implying that they always work. They are so smart! I don't know of ANY company that provides software patches for their 20MA, Stochastic, Bollinger, RSI etc to account for "good" times or "bad".

If you can learn to trade in one day, then maybe Monday is better than Wednesday, some might even attempt to argue Thursday is better..idiots don’t listen to them. If you can learn to trade in one month, I think April is best, only because my birthday is in April. If it takes you a year to learn, I’d wait until 2010 because my favourite movie is 2001 A Space Odyssey, however you missed 2001 but they made a sequel called “2010: The Year We Make Contact”.

And there you have it.

 

[everyonerich]

let me repeat this again, never learn from those book.. because the chart and analysis carried out in the books is ALL PERFECT SETUP. even some of the people posting their strategy here is all perfect, they never show you the imperfect setup. and usually that leaves out the newbie have no idea how to figure out when is perfect or not perfect setup.. and newbie will just having long string of losses compare to winnings..f**k all those book..!

the only things keeps you survive in this market is.. constantly learn how to adapt and play "What If.. " game..

 

[ZonaTrader]

I like your sig new_trader (on theology).

The "What If.." game makes sense to me. I am new to learning how to operate in this "realm of probability, and the "What If.." game is in line with how I try to operate as a rookie trader.

 

[robster970]

Being new to all this myself, I'm finding learning right now useful because the conditions at least in FTSE seem to be so unusual. The 'what if' scenarios I'm coming across don't seem to pop up in text books. This is forcing me to analyse, analyse and do more analysis. The result is that the learning is intense but I figure that if I can come up with systems that can handle this degree of variation in the markets then it will stand me in good stead when conditions are a little more predictable.

Get stuck in. It's the only way to learn. Making the common mistakes is key and the market opportunities to do this are plentiful right now.

 

[new_trader]

Being new to all this myself, I'm finding learning right now useful because the conditions at least in FTSE seem to be so unusual. The 'what if' scenarios I'm coming across don't seem to pop up in text books. This is forcing me to analyse, analyse and do more analysis. The result is that the learning is intense but I figure that if I can come up with systems that can handle this degree of variation in the markets then it will stand me in good stead when conditions are a little more predictable.

Get stuck in. It's the only way to learn. Making the common mistakes is key and the market opportunities to do this are plentiful right now.

Learning is the assimilation of knowledge and meaning from our experiences. Wisdom is the correct use of this knowledge.

To be wise in trading is to know 3 things:

1) When to go long
2) When to go short
3) When to abstain

These apply in any market, in any condition with any instrument. Now is as good as yesterday and will be as good tomorrow to begin learning.