Is market turning for a rebound?

[zaysev36]

Last week lots of stocks resided in a bear territory, yet some analysts claim most of them oversold. What you think, are markets turning back? Or have they not even reached bottom yet?

 

[malaguti]

Last week lots of stocks resided in a bear territory, yet some analysts claim most of them oversold. What you think, are markets turning back? Or have they not even reached bottom yet?

one of our longest standing members on this site gave this piece of advice on a similar thread

"Who knows and who cares ?
As traders just go with the flow and pick up the money...."

its just a walk in the park Zaysev, skipping through the puddles and picking up the $ bills as they fall out of the sky. just go with the flow mate, just go with the flow

 

[zaysev36]

one of our longest standing members on this site gave this piece of advice on a similar thread

"Who knows and who cares ?
As traders just go with the flow and pick up the money...."

its just a walk in the park Zaysev, skipping through the puddles and picking up the $ bills as they fall out of the sky. just go with the flow mate, just go with the flow

Looks like with this statement you reject a whole trading theory combined with financial analysis and statistics And what if I wandered to the part of the park where it's not raining with money and I'm trying to get out of here to more rainy areas?

 

[Eric Geddes]

Last week lots of stocks resided in a bear territory, yet some analysts claim most of them oversold. What you think, are markets turning back? Or have they not even reached bottom yet?

Trading is all about probabilities: the probability at the moment is that no one knows. Analysts have a job to do – their customers expect something and no analyst worth his salt will admit that he doesn't know (even if subsequent events prove that to be the case). Analysts are of the same genus as politicians. Malaguti is correct.

 

[zaysev36]

Trading is all about probabilities: the probability at the moment is that no one knows. Analysts have a job to do – their customers expect something and no analyst worth his salt will admit that he doesn't know (even if subsequent events prove that to be the case). Analysts are of the same genus as politicians. Malaguti is correct.

So you are trying to convince me that no analysts are to be trusted and trading is basically similar to gambling - just bet and hope for the best?

 

[Eric Geddes]

So you are trying to convince me that no analysts are to be trusted and trading is basically similar to gambling - just bet and hope for the best?

Where did i say that? I may be mistaken but if your mindset is to draw conclusions not backed up by evidence then you will have extreme difficulty with the market. You have previously asked if others think that the market has bottomed out – presumably you are uncertain of your own opinion. One of the important things to learn with trading (and maybe you've already done this) is to form your own opinions and subsequently test them for correctness. This way you can build your own confidence and not rely on others who, unless you know their track record you have no way of assessing their quality.

Just trying to help!

 

[malaguti]

Looks like with this statement you reject a whole trading theory combined with financial analysis and statistics And what if I wandered to the part of the park where it's not raining with money and I'm trying to get out of here to more rainy areas?

actually it wasn't my saying. It was a quote from a long standing member (not me). and it was more out of irony however in its simplicity the quote is very true

we don't know what's going to happen..but that doesn't make it gambling (unless you stick your finger in the air and think, i'll go long today). we don't know what's going to happen, but we use whatever probability that something that may have happened in the past is going to happen again. which is the philosophy behind technical analysis.
whatever method you subscribe to, be that gann, fibonacci, random straight lines etc etc we use that method because it represents a possible explanation as to what is happening in the market. do we know why? of course not, because everything that happens is a culmination of thousands of different participants and we could never try to know, but we just try to rationalise and make sense out of it and we do that based on statistical probability

do we care whats going to happen next, again no we shouldn't care. if we care, we're probably placing too much emphasis on trying to predict and we shouldn't be trying to predict

we should just be trying to trade whatever methodology you or i or anybody else (and it really doesn't matter what that is) believe in, that works for us and gives us that edge (statistical probability of an edge) that hopefully has been backtested and that you rely on.
it doesn't make one method better than another, how late it is getting in and out of the position, what matters is that it works for you and gives you an edge.

so, is it going to rebound? we don't know and we don't care we are just going to follow our method.

so i would say, look to find a method. a method that works for you and a method that statistically gives you an edge and don't worry what the market is going to do tomorrow, just focus on what its doing now, and what that means to your methodology

anyway, when you say "rebound" all this depends on the timeframe. some would say its an uptrend so is your rebound back down? or is it back up, which is a longer term perspective and all this depends on your method

hope this all makes sense

 

[darktone]

one of our longest standing members on this site gave this piece of advice on a similar thread

"Who knows and who cares ?
As traders just go with the flow and pick up the money...."

its just a walk in the park Zaysev, skipping through the puddles and picking up the $ bills as they fall out of the sky. just go with the flow mate, just go with the flow

Have you explained to him the importance yelling out 'DAMMIT' when missing a whining trade and 'BOOM' when taking a profit :cheesy:

 

[dbphoenix]

Many "analysts" are nothing more than journalists. As such, they have no idea what "oversold" means, although many analysts don't know what it means either. If the trader also doesn't know what it means, it is his business to find out. He can then determine for himself whether stocks or whatever are "oversold" or not. And even if he determines that they were, that doesn't mean that they continue to be.

It's all part of learning one's business rather than relying on the opinions of others.

Db

 

[itspossible]

Have you explained to him the importance yelling out 'DAMMIT' when missing a whining trade and 'BOOM' when taking a profit :cheesy:

also the importance of hindsight trading DAVE
http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WtYZLOh7rxQ

 

[zaysev36]

actually it wasn't my saying. It was a quote from a long standing member (not me). and it was more out of irony however in its simplicity the quote is very true

we don't know what's going to happen..but that doesn't make it gambling (unless you stick your finger in the air and think, i'll go long today). we don't know what's going to happen, but we use whatever probability that something that may have happened in the past is going to happen again. which is the philosophy behind technical analysis.
whatever method you subscribe to, be that gann, fibonacci, random straight lines etc etc we use that method because it represents a possible explanation as to what is happening in the market. do we know why? of course not, because everything that happens is a culmination of thousands of different participants and we could never try to know, but we just try to rationalise and make sense out of it and we do that based on statistical probability

do we care whats going to happen next, again no we shouldn't care. if we care, we're probably placing too much emphasis on trying to predict and we shouldn't be trying to predict

we should just be trying to trade whatever methodology you or i or anybody else (and it really doesn't matter what that is) believe in, that works for us and gives us that edge (statistical probability of an edge) that hopefully has been backtested and that you rely on.
it doesn't make one method better than another, how late it is getting in and out of the position, what matters is that it works for you and gives you an edge.

so, is it going to rebound? we don't know and we don't care we are just going to follow our method.

so i would say, look to find a method. a method that works for you and a method that statistically gives you an edge and don't worry what the market is going to do tomorrow, just focus on what its doing now, and what that means to your methodology

anyway, when you say "rebound" all this depends on the timeframe. some would say its an uptrend so is your rebound back down? or is it back up, which is a longer term perspective and all this depends on your method

hope this all makes sense

Wow, you surely have a philosophical approach to trading The main problem is finding the method you've mentioned. Without proper preparation you risk to spend a dime while searching, let alone much time. And I have neither

 

[malaguti]

Wow, you surely have a philosophical approach to trading The main problem is finding the method you've mentioned. Without proper preparation you risk to spend a dime while searching, let alone much time. And I have neither

if you don't have the time or the money to risk, you are best leaving trading completely as it does take commitment which means both time and money to pursue.
certainly don't follow other's opinions (as somebody else said) thinking this is an easy way..my opinion as to whether its down or up next means little as its not my money i'm risking in giving that opinion.

when you do have time to commit, you can do so without spending a penny and help build that methodology until you have the money. but without either, you're pretty much screwed and open to the manipulation of others who would have you believe its all just a walk in the park and all you need is this amazing indicator

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Last week lots of stocks resided in a bear territory, yet some analysts claim most of them oversold. What you think, are markets turning back? Or have they not even reached bottom yet?

You can debate these kind of things till the end of time -- who knows, no one knows.
Just trade in the here and now. be partial, don't have a pro-bear or pro-bull longhaul viewpoint.

 

[zaysev36]

You can debate these kind of things till the end of time -- who knows, no one knows.
Just trade in the here and now. be partial, don't have a pro-bear or pro-bull longhaul viewpoint.

Well, I guess it's part of a human nature - seeking for an excuse for your action, or rather for some abstract assurance. That's part of the reason why people sit on forums like this one, isn't it? To share suspicions and learn assumptions :smart: