is it time to sell Twitter?

Stoney_21

Member
61 1
i lost 54% on my investment and they report Q4 earnings next wed. im afraid it may tank even more. is it time ot get out then maybe buy back when its even lower?
 

thesonandheir

Newbie
3 0
i lost 54% on my investment and they report Q4 earnings next wed. im afraid it may tank even more. is it time ot get out then maybe buy back when its even lower?
Am guessing the earnings won't be pretty and gut feeling is this is going down like LinkedIn, a similar sort of stock that does not make profits. Current market climate is not kind to growth stocks.

Best of luck with your trading.
 

zaysev36

Well-known member
421 15
Nah, I doubt it's going to fall low enough to be worth the risk. Besides, expectations are for more solid sales growth.
 
M

member275544

0 0
i lost 54% on my investment and they report Q4 earnings next wed. im afraid it may tank even more. is it time ot get out then maybe buy back when its even lower?
point & figure targets in the region of 4 if it helps at all
 
M

member275544

0 0
P&F is a charting method, based on breakouts/breakdowns and the overall trend
it is also able to provide price forecasts..generally quite reliable

current price 14.90, target 3.95 lets see if it gets near there

if you haven't come across P&F before, I'd recommend you start. it would help you avoid holding onto something that is obviously going down, and potentially has a lot longer to go
 

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zaysev36

Well-known member
421 15
Only if you're not targeting long-term investment I believe. No point to sell it now then.
 
M

member275544

0 0
whether its a long term investment, a short term trade, or whether you had absolutely nothing riding on it, its never a good idea to have that mentality.
never hold on to your losers in the hope its going to turn around and then convince yourself "its a long term investment"
investment/trading they are exactly the same thing, other than time
not everything goes back up again, and if it does, it takes considerably longer to do so and all that capital tied up in the mean time.

not meaning to preach, just bitter experience.
 

zaysev36

Well-known member
421 15
So there is no point in waiting out till TWTR goes up again? Even if it does, I will lose time and money, that's your point?
 
M

member275544

0 0
So there is no point in waiting out till TWTR goes up again? Even if it does, I will lose time and money, that's your point?
yep, main points and harsh lessons learnt over the years are:
buy when something is going up, or about to go up, not down
don't hold on to anything in a downtrend
first sign of the trend changing get out and look to put your money elsewhere
first sign of the overall market trend changing, raise your stop loss tighter on your individual stocks

trading or investing, its all about timing. even if fundamentals are good the trend will determine otherwise
 

zaysev36

Well-known member
421 15
You speak of trend, but how can I evaluate it other than waiting for fluctuations of prices? What are the indexes to look after when monitoring trend changes?
 
M

member275544

0 0
You speak of trend, but how can I evaluate it other than waiting for fluctuations of prices? What are the indexes to look after when monitoring trend changes?
you can evaluate the trend of anything you're holding, it is the fluctuation of that price over a certain time period will determine whether the trend is up or down at any moment or possibly undecided (consolidating)
call up anything, is it up or down? (at this moment in time)

at what level when its hit, would you say that the trend is potentially changing? bear in mind a trend doesn't just reverse. it doesn't just go in the opposite direction, it takes time.
when that level is hit, you get out

as for the overall market, the same is true. the index all depends on the instrument. TWTR falls under the communication sector which will also have a trend, and that sector within the NYSE, which has a trend

when choosing a stock, look for a stock rising (good relative strength), in a sector that's also rising (relative to overall market NYSE) which is also about to turn into an uptrend or already in an uptrend.

the weight of the market, can influence a sector, and the weight of the sector can influence the individual stock

don't think you have to wait years for these conditions to be met, markets and sectors are cyclical. they don't all go down at the same time, they don't all go up at the same time.
its also not a bad idea to be in cash sometimes.

PM me if you need to go through these in more detail. its quite straightforward just takes a bit of practice to instantly see where you are in a trend.
 

zaysev36

Well-known member
421 15
I see... Ok, I'll need some time to think it out. So the trend I should be looking for is like a mix of market, sector and stock trends. i wonder if some sort of scientific approach is available here? Are there some certain formulaes considering those? Like "when X is declining and Y is at 50%, you should quit"? Or is it just too individual for each stock?
 
M

member275544

0 0
I see... Ok, I'll need some time to think it out. So the trend I should be looking for is like a mix of market, sector and stock trends. i wonder if some sort of scientific approach is available here? Are there some certain formulaes considering those? Like "when X is declining and Y is at 50%, you should quit"? Or is it just too individual for each stock?
not quite, its probably just terminology
I look at the trend of the stock, separately from the trend of the sector and trend of the overall market. so three different trends, but where each one is in that trend is key for me.
there is a calculation: relative strength (not to be confused with RSI) which you can calculate with reference to different objects
 

zaysev36

Well-known member
421 15
Got it. Thanks for your time, I'll try to apply your advice to some cases and see if I can analyze them correctly.
 

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