Intraday Forex traders thread

[wasp]

The DOW, SPX, FTSE and US stocks all have one so it only seems right!

Been looking back over the last year after the last two day events , curious to other movements in the same capacity. Intraday moves over 200 pips don't seem to happen that often (I counted 12 for 2005) but not had a chance to look back further yet.

I know why the USD dropped so much over the last two days and normally Non Farm payrolls can send the market at least 150 pips pretty quick, but I have a few more dates that moved but I'm still searching to why?

(This is looking at cable alone at the moment)

JAN > 4th / 7th / 12th / 18th / 26th
FEB > 7th / 10th
JUN > 15th

Anyone get any ideas?

Also, does anyone know of larger moves in previous years and their causes and how large some were? (other than NFP data).


I trade cable and Euro/USD mainly and used to spend a lot of time on moneytec but its full of people trying to discover and sell holy grails, or their companies. It would be good to have a thread here about the currency movements and not selling systems.

Wasp.

 

[fxmarkets]

I know why the USD dropped so much over the last two days and normally Non Farm payrolls can send the market at least 150 pips pretty quick, but I have a few more dates that moved but I'm still searching to why?


Anyone get any ideas?



Wasp.

hmm oil concerns and the US exposure to those and the Katrina situation, the fed may ease rates based on this? new orleans is a big pit of expense , how big, how many billions ?

i see the dow as weak -10400 bullish +10600 seem to be grinding at the moment, I think theres a 70 year trendline on the dow starting at 1000 ish ,coming up for a test in the next few years I dont think we'll see a new high in the next ,hmmm I dont think we'll see one..... depends on the terror factor and escalations of that nature, you cant predict it, human nature says more agro will come so , I'd like to see it differently but knowing people at this stage in our evolution. Rant over.....

what time frame do you trade off ? why do you need to know why prices have acted. Dont you just long and short on action psychology or are you into funda/funny mentals?

 

[wasp]

i see the dow as weak -10400 bullish +10600 seem to be grinding at the moment, I think theres a 70 year trendline on the dow starting at 1000 ish ,coming up for a test in the next few years I dont think we'll see a new high in the next ,hmmm I dont think we'll see one..... depends on the terror factor and escalations of that nature, you cant predict it, human nature says more agro will come so , I'd like to see it differently but knowing people at this stage in our evolution. Rant over.....

what time frame do you trade off ? why do you need to know why prices have acted. Dont you just long and short on action psychology or are you into funda/funny mentals?

Hi FXMarkets,

I trade off 30 minintue charts and don't pay much attention to the DOW really. I'm not a big fan of fundamentals and really only concern with myself with short term future (ie. the next half hour).

I'm more curious to know what can and does push the exchange to such highs and lows and whether one can be ready and know when to expect these occurances other than NFP and the obvious Katrina, oil etc 200 pip moves are rare but very much appreciated!

 

[fxmarkets]

Gotcha.. not to sure if you can or need to predict , I mean if you are short terming it chances are you'll be making 5-15 trades over a typical session6-8 hours maybe, depending on how many you want to take. I guess it depends on our risk profile, including time risk with a position.

 

[wannagetstacked]

Its nice to see this thread has been started. It will be good to have somewhere to chat about intraday fx on T2W.

Hopefully we'll see some interesting intelligent contributions.

I trade the eur/usd intraday.

Nathan

 

[wasp]

Its nice to see this thread has been started. It will be good to have somewhere to chat about intraday fx on T2W.

Hopefully we'll see some interesting intelligent contributions.

I trade the eur/usd intraday.

Nathan

Cheers Nathan,

I hope so too. Like I say, money tec and others always seem too pre-occupied with holy grails that its a waste of time logging in.

I won't be around at weekends much but plenty during the weeks. Hope everyone had a good week.

Wasp

 

[wannagetstacked]

Eur/Usd: My feeling for the rest of a day would be a move down towards 1.2450/40. Eur usd managed to bounce off resistance at 1.2515 with few buyers willing to push through this level. The daily bars appear bearish and i'd expect a continuance back down to the low of the day. This is however fighting the stronger trend upwards on the daily bars, as we are now in a period of retracement.

Any other views?

Nathan

 

[wannagetstacked]

Just a quick update on my call from yesterday. It hit the area I suggested and then rebounded. The result is however is that we are now trading inside yesterdays range-the result could be a rather dull day if it fails to break out. My suggestion for the morning would be a move up to 1.2510/15 with a fairly strong bounce as I still see the next day or few being bearish based on daily charts.

Any other opinions?

Nathan

 

[wannagetstacked]

I was a little bit out on my target area for the bounce, but it has rebounded very strongly as i thought it would given the current long term conditions.

Nathan

 

[JER08]

I was a little bit out on my target area for the bounce, but it has rebounded very strongly as i thought it would given the current long term conditions.

Nathan

Good call - Nathan

Will euro fall through 12440-20 then back up again ? Seems to me it's in stop-hunting mode.

 

[wannagetstacked]

At the moment I have my eye on the swing at 1.2472. If prices bounce strongly off this swing back up to 1.2500+ then I would presume the rest off the day might be quite flat. If however prices don't have trouble getting through this swing then what you suggested is a possibility in my mind.

Nathan

 

[YachtFund]

Newbie question.

Looking at the day charts for GBP v USD I'm trying to figure out if there is a fib retracement due. Two possible starts are either the July low of 1.735 to 1.85 or the low in late Aug of 1.7827 to 1.85.

Wondered which one was the most legitimate start price.

Something similar happened between Nov '03 to Feb '04.

Cheers

YachtFund

 

[wannagetstacked]

Sorry I don't use fibs, there's too much ambiguity surrounding the levels for my liking. I stick to observing buying and selling pressures.

Nathan

 

[wannagetstacked]

Prices continued to be bearish as outlined might happen earlier, and have faked out the low at 1.2440 as JER08 pointed out might happen. Nothing too unexpected has happened so far today, hope some more people might contribute tomorrow.

Nathan

 

[JumpOff]

There was a thrust through 1.2456 which didn't follow through, but didn't result in the "failed break out collapse" that we sometimes see. Buyers are lifting the bid along a rising support line.

JO

 

[JumpOff]

Now higher volume results in a smaller thrust - (looking at the 1 min. chart. ) and the biggest vol bars are down. (that's tick vol from Mytrack in case you are wondering).
JO

 

[JumpOff]

Buyers hold back for a better price, sellers are chasing. Support line failure.
JO

 

[JumpOff]

(11:32)Sellers pause. No free fall.

(11:43)Fed's beige book due in 17 minutes.

(12:09)Market auctioning lower. Approaching today's low at 1.2419

JO

 

[JER08]

Just taken a short at 2435 with wide stop. looking very bearish to me.

 

[JumpOff]

What is a wide stop? Any specific reasons for where you put it?
JO