InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Learn: Market Action Signals Coming Stock Pop

The markets are trading slightly lower today. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $125.90, -0.36 (-0.29%). Over the last few days, the market has paused following a massive up move. This is a change of pace from big swings down and up in recent months. This pause and small pull back is known as bullish consolidation. The market actions dictate another stock market jump in the near future. It may start as early as Friday.

All eyes are on the summit in Europe which will take place on Friday. It is interesting how the markets are giving a leading indicator on the possible direction of the move. This up move coming soon could also coordinate with a Santa Clause rally.

Another strong leading indicator seems to be the banks. This is a sector that leads the market and it has been strong of late for the first time in months. Today, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is trading at $33.44, +0.21 (+0.63%) while the S&P 500 is flat to lower. In addition, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) has one of the hottest in spirit of bull flags on the daily chart, just waiting to rip higher within the next few days.

Lastly, the Dollar has a classic bear flag formation. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEARCA:UUP) shows a possible fall in the near future. Since the Dollar trades inverse to the market, a fall would signal a pop in the stock market.

These indicators are all pointing to a move up in the markets.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStock

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Today: Market Analysis And Keys To The Trade

The markets are seeing red today. New worries are popping up over Europe and the debt crisis. This is causing the Dollar to spike higher and in response, the markets are falling. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $123.77, -2.26 (-1.79%).

The markets are holding a choppy pattern of consolidation. Overall, this still has a bullish tone to it on a macro scale. The choppy action saw a big down move last Thursday, then an up move Friday and down the markets go again today. The net move over the last week or so has been flat. This flat choppy action is the bullish consolidation that makes the macro pattern bullish. Should this pattern hold, upside will come later this week.

Bank stocks are leading the decline. This is normal when European worries drive markets lower. Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) is trading at $5.42, -0.30 (-5.24%). The macro pattern on the financial stocks continues to be bullish even with the decline today. This confirms the S&P 500 macro bullish setup as well.

Commodities are also taking a big hit today. This is a result of a very strong Dollar. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSEARCA:UUP) is trading at $22.36, +0.24 (+1.08%) . Commodities like oil, gold and silver are all plunging. The iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:SLV) is trading at $30.25, -1.08 (-3.45%).

While the markets look weak today, keep the emotion out of your thought process. Focus on the charts and they will lead you to the promised land of profit.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Commodities Crash: Buy Levels Revealed

The markets are down again today. The selling is not massive but it is the third drop in a row. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $121.79, -1.32 (-1.07%). The big driver to the downside today is clearly commodities. Almost every single commodity is dumping sharply. Everything from oil to gold and silver. While these drops are massive, smart investors and traders are starting to look for the buy level.

Oil is coming off a massive run-up recently. The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSEARCA:USO) is trading at $36.93, -1.68 (-4.35%). This is a massive drop as spot crude is down well over $4.00 per barrel. Support levels on the USO are tricky because the commodity is still overbought. The first level that looks attractive on the USO is the 50 moving average at $36.35. This level will be a short term oil bounce level but is not a long term buy. The term used to trade this level would be swing trade. The following major support on the USO is $34.50. This would be the longer term hold level.

Gold is plummeting. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:GLD) is trading at $153.32, -5.13 (-3.24%). As central banks dump gold and raise cash, pressure on the commodity is strong. In addition, the Dollar of late has surged dramatically higher. This also puts major pressure on the precious metal. The first support level on the GLD is $149.50. After a small bounce, expect the GLD to head to $144.00. This should be a longer term bottom.

Silver, like gold is under major pressure. iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:SLV) is trading at $28.09, -1.73 (-5.80%). SLV hit some minor support today at $27.40. This may give it a day or two bounce. However, more downside is likely before all the selling concludes in mid 2012. The next major support on the SLV is $26.10 with the longer term buy level at $24.25.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Stock Market Action: Natural Gas On Radar

After some early selling, the markets have floated back to the positive side. This is not surprising as light volume plays a key role in an up market. In addition, the S&P 500 broke out of a triangular range yesterday. This means further upside in the next week is likely. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $127.58, +0.09 (+0.07%). The action today is known as consolidation. This is also a bullish signal for the next week with an upside SPY target of $129.50.

Commodities are mixed today. Oil is slightly lower while gold is still moving higher. The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSEARCA:USO) is trading at $39.64, -0.05 (-0.13%) while the SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSEARCA:GLD) is trading at $156.99, +1.07 (+0.69%).

The standout commodity of the day is natural gas. After collapsing almost daily, it is inching higher. A bottom is close if not already at hand. The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) is trading at $6.63, +0.16 (+2.47%). This may be the commodity of 2012 as it is likely the U.S. government will create many new incentives for its use in cars and trucks. With the energy source trading around $3.00, the risk reward is very solid to the upside.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Earnings To Propel Stock Market

Stocks are trading around the flat line once again today. Following the big rally on January 3rd, 2012, the markets have gone into hibernation mode. Volume has been light and market direction muted. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $127.67, -0.15 (-0.12%). This action continues to tell of further upside. It is called bullish consolidation and the upside price target remains $129.50 - $130.00 on the SPY.

The likely cause of further upside will be earnings. Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA) reports today after the close. They are expected report a profit of $0.01 per share. In addition, big names such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will be reporting over the next couple weeks. This may be the catalyst for one final move up in the markets.

The charts continue to show a bullish angle. While upside is likely it will not last long. The key is to profit on the final upswing then position yourself for the down move.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Mixed Data As Markets Ready For Next Major Move

The stock markets are flat today after mixed data across the globe. Overnight, China gave the futures a push after reports showed inflation cooled slightly. The consumer price index rose 4.1% in December in China. Overnight, the Dow Futures had been higher by over 100 points. This morning the ECB disappointed the markets when they held interest rates at 1%. Traders had been hoping for a more dovish ECB. At 8:30am ET, Jobless Claims were reported at 399,000. This was a jump from last week and back to that scary 400,000 level. The futures dropped back to the flat line which is where the markets are trading now. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $129.01, -0.24 (-0.19%).

This is the second flat day in a row after the Tuesday rally. The SPY is still stuck below the resistance level of $129.50. While into resistance, this light volume action and consolidation still speaks of another push higher.

Natural gas continues to be pounded. The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) is down another 3% on the day. This dramatic fall continues with no bottom in sight. Oil on the other hand continues to grind higher. The United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) (NYSEARCA:USO) is trading at $39.25, +0.35 (+0.90%). It is very rare to see this major divergence in energy commodities. At some point there will be a snap back in natural gas. It is most likely nearing. Watch for news out of the government on incentives to switch to natural gas. It has long been talked about and most likely near.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[isatrader]

Re: Mixed Data As Markets Ready For Next Major Move

You've called a bottom in natural gas a few times in the last few months. And are still pushing the UNG which underperforms the spot price by a huge margin.

Here's the links to your previous calls.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/general-trading-chat/139494-natural-gas-next-double.html
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...72-stock-market-action-natural-gas-radar.html

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Short Squeeze: THQI Ready To Blow

THQ Inc. (NASDAQ:THQI) has over 20% of the float shorted. This is a whopping 12 million shares. To find out whether or not a short squeeze will soon occur one must look closely at the details of the company. First, the market cap sits at $47 million while cash sits at $51 million. This shows us a company trading below cash value. While hemorrhaging money, the company still does revenues of around $800 million.

These factors all point to a possible buyout. With so many shorts, any sort of pop will set off a mass short squeeze. An upside move could easily be above a Dollar per share. Keep this stock on your watch list.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Small Investors Keep Market Up As Institutions Enjoy

The markets are hovering slightly lower on the day. Overnight, more worries crept out of Greece causing the futures to fall and the Dollar to pop. However, once the market opened, the light volume float was back on. This has been the common theme of late and is likely to continue as long as volume remains light. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $131.26, -0.32 (-0.24%).

All eyes are on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). They report earnings after the closing bell today. This will be a major report for the technology sector and likely a market mover.

The markets keep inching lower early in the day when volume is highest, then floating higher later on. This tells the top traders that the market is overbought but the little investor continues to be caught in the hype and buy. The lack of volume means that big players are not buying but allowing the small investor to push things higher. Essentially, this is the little investor getting long before the bottom falls out.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Re: Small Investors Keep Market Up As Institutions Enjoy

The markets keep inching lower early in the day when volume is highest, then floating higher later on.

And you better believe I have been taking advantage of that with intraday trades. It happens like clockwork

The little guys have been fleeing this casino for years, I wonder how many are left?

 

[isatrader]

Re: Small Investors Keep Market Up As Institutions Enjoy

The markets keep inching lower early in the day when volume is highest, then floating higher later on. This tells the top traders that the market is overbought but the little investor continues to be caught in the hype and buy. The lack of volume means that big players are not buying but allowing the small investor to push things higher. Essentially, this is the little investor getting long before the bottom falls out.
[/IMG]

The volume data that separates the large players from the small investors at effectivevolume.eu seems to disagree with your statement, see: Effective Volume

I've attached their latest charts of the SPY, QQQ and IWM ETFs that show that infact it's the large institutions that are getting long here, while the small investors are fairly flat.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Weakness After AAPL Signals Coming Sell Off

You could hear the cheer from CNBC commentators as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported monster earnings. This truly was a great earnings report. The jubilation started in the media and spread to the little investor. Proclamations of 1380 on the S&P 500 were constant along with "tomorrow" will be a monster up day in the markets.

However, here the S&P 500 sits on the negative side. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $131.28, -0.18 (-0.14%). The NASDAQ is only slightly higher on the day. Most major technology companies are selling off today while Apple is responsible for the gains alone.

One thing to learn is to ignore the Wall Street hype and focus on the charts. By focusing on the charts, it was clear that the markets were overbought and there was little if any upside left. The euphoric state of the media is used to coax the small investor into the markets. As they buy, the institutions sell. This is classic and marks the top of the market in the short term. Remember, when the markets are at their highest point of happiness and the media is pumping the strongest, sell your longs and go short.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[G.O.A.T]

Re: Weakness After AAPL Signals Coming Sell Off

Hello Gareth, how's wallstreet1928:whistling

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Weakness After AAPL Signals Coming Sell Off

?

Hello Gareth, how's wallstreet1928:whistling

 

[Lightning McQueen]

Re: Weakness After AAPL Signals Coming Sell Off

?

oh do keep up gareth, ws is your biggest cheerleader, his whole blog and signal service revolves around your musings, hell he's even (probably) selling on your stuff to his subscribers.

damn i forgot, you only a member that posts your stuff here, obviously not a member that actually reads the forum, silly me!

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Light Volume Stock Market Float

Light volume is saving the day once more. After an ugly gap lower, the markets are floating back towards the flat line. This is classic behavior for a market without volume. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $131.10, -0.63 (-0.48%).

Earnings continue this week with Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) reporting Tuesday after the market close. This is highly anticipated after Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported blockbuster results. In addition, Friday, Wall Street gets the Non Farm Payroll and Unemployment Report. This will be looked at closely but big players, waiting to buy or short the market.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Financial Stocks Rally Strong But Hit Key Resistance

As the market heads higher, the financial stocks lead the way. These gains continue to mount as concerns over Europe remain muted and economic news from China is strong. Stocks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) are up from a late November low of $28 and now hover at $38.00 per share. This massive spike is seen in almost all financial stocks.

While the gains are impressive, banks are nearing major resistance levels. These must be respected. The most obvious resistance point can be seen on Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS). This stock has now moved into the 200ma and a pivot top from October 20th, 2011.

Keep an eye on the financial stocks. As they go, the market goes. If the banks are putting in tops and ready to pull back, be ready for a market pull back.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Key Stock Trading Analysis

The markets are hovering slightly lower on the trading day. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $134.58, -0.21 (-0.16%). While the markets remain overbought, the free money policy of the Federal Reserve and light volume propping has created the best start in 25 years in the market. The scary aspect of this is that the rocket will eventually run out of fuel and fall to earth quickly. The question is simply when?

Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) hit the daily 200 moving average today at $8.09. It now looks like it could pull back. The chart is extended with the market and upside potential is limited short term.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) continues to plow higher. It is trading at $472.10, +3.27 (+0.70%). This stock continues to be the leader in the technology sector, following amazing earnings. If you are looking for a short, it is wise to look in other places until Apple at least hits $500 a share.

Semiconductors continue their trek higher. However, major resistance on the Merrill Lynch Semiconductors HOLDRS ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH) is coming into play. Look at the $35.25 as a short term top and shorting opportunity if hit. Stocks like Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) remain dramatically extended.

As the market continues to float, preparation must be made for the next big move.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

7 Reasons A Stock Market Top Is At Hand

The markets are hovering slightly lower on the day with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) trading at $135.06, -0.30 (-0.22%) and the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQ) trading at $62.99, -0.06 (-0.10%). As the markets remain near their recent highs, signals of a top are all around. Here are the reasons.

1. The media is euphoric, coaxing the retail investor into the market. Throughout history, when the retail investor jumps in, the top is at hand.

2. The markets have been moving higher on lighter and lighter volume. This tells us that institutions are no longer buying and it is only retail money pushing the markets up. If institutions are not buying, be very careful.

3. Insider selling heavily outweighs insider buying. Insider sells to buys are over 5-1. If the CEO's are selling, there are definite problems ahead. Insiders in theory should know the most about their companies. Selling is never good.

4. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) crossed the psychological $500 level. This was a target which has now been achieved. As the little investor rushes to invest, the large players sell. Classic top name reaching a psychological milestone is a warning to all.

5. The Facebook IPO has hyped the markets and got the little investor to once again invest. In 2007, The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE:BX) was the Facebook of its time and its hyped IPO nailed the top now. As every little investor wants to own Facebook, history is repeating itself.

6. Wall Street is now programmed to believe everything will be fine around the world. Do you notice how credit downgrades have almost no impact anymore on the markets? Do you notice how bad news barely drops the market for an hour? The markets have been conditioned to think the world has been saved. This puts Wall Street on the edge of a cliff. Any shocking news that cannot be brushed off will cause an epic sell off. Reality is that Europe is still an ugly mess and not even close to better. Once realized, the markets will correct.

7. Barrons cover sported DOW 15,000. The last time a cover showcased something like this was in 1999-2000, just before the Dot.com bubble burst. In addition, other magazines sported people hugging their houses in 2007, nailing the top on real estate. Be warned.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[VendorExterminator]

Re: 7 Reasons A Stock Market Top Is At Hand

This is so far from being a long term top it's comical.