Interesting week ahead.....

[titus-uk]

So, the next week may prove to be make-or-break for the markets. A number of key events are occurring, from which we will see whether we are at a top of a range, from which we will decline; or if this is a period of consolidation from which we will rally.

Many commentators are expecting the Fed to cut 0.5%, but more interest will be in the statement. If it is neutral, or indicates the end of a cycle, things may decline a little. Anything less than 0.5 will trigger a sell-off. A positive statement may take the Naz to 2500 and beyond.

Also of interect is that companies like Dell will be reporting. A lot is expected now, following positive vibes a few weeks back. If the fail to deliver, there may well be a retracement.

I can't call it...which is why I am sitting on the sidelines for now.....coincidentally my exams finish Friday (hopefully) after which I can give greater attention to the markets, and may look at getting back in again. I would be interested by the opinions of everyone out there, so gaze into your crystal balls and vote!


Mark

 

[Riz]

Hi Mark,

I never find a choice fully suitable to me on polls
So I'll try and write my position for you here instead of ticking one...

As of Friday I`ve been 30% long; that's on pon,egs,kwl and spt...I will most unlikely add or change positions till I get clearer signals from the US...at the moment I am unable to make a call about the direction of the us markets next week...for a while (actually since the last rally started in April) we've neither been in an uptrend nor downtrend...all we've had is oscillating caused by bottom basing...having this in mind I tried to make the best out of it, and haven't done bad so far...

The reason why I don't invest or trade more is that I think the bottom basing and oscillating will go on till end of summer and hopefully we'll start an uptrend from there on...having said this, I think most major indices may have another leg before carrying on with oscillating...next week is going to be decisive as to whether this is a leg down or up which means dow retesting 11000, Nas 2250, ftse 6000 and techmark 2100...

The Fed's statement will certainly have the greatest impact on this...I believe they will announce 0.5 point rate cut, but the contents of their statement will have to be checked to have an idea about the continuity of the rate cuts which have made the investors nervous for the last few days...if both the percentage and continuity turns out to be as investors expected I think we should make sure we are in at some point to make use of this upleg which could be the last till late summer, and if they turn out to be the other way round then it's best to get fully cash and wait till the end of the downleg when the major indices retest the lows and restart oscillating from there on..

Hope the above gives you an idea as to where I stand...

Cheers

Riz

 

[shelman]

It's a difficult call... stay out and risk nothing or take the gamble and make the biggest percentage gain (50%ish) which normally occurs within a six month period after a crash, assuming that we are in a consolidation period and not about to go back into freefall.

Steve

 

[titus-uk]

I think 6 months will be higher than the present. However, I am interested in what people think the next 1-2 months will bring....

Mark

PS. the more people who vote, the better chance we have of calling it ( like we've done so in the past...)

 

[Dayraider]

hi riz,



Glad you do pay attention in the room This will be the pivitol point for this mini cycle which i called damage control. "What goes up, must comes down" What comes down, must goes up." If you believe in TA then you must belive in this statement, The big run down from last Sept. to April was not a bubble burst, it was a carefull collaborated correction. imo this was a total manipulation of the market. The market had it run and that was thru "the feel good period of the US in the 90's." As you all know the Baby Boomers has came to maturity. They all coming to their golden years. Time to cash in their high risk, high return investments and look for tax shelters. Guess who for past 15 to 20 years been holding those power positions in Gov. and in Corporate America. The Baby Boomers. The 40 something that are now the 60 something. As they pull out the bears saw a chance to run it down. but don't worry the next generation came to the rescued. that is exacatly what you saw this April till now. This New Generation is a wild card they are willing to take the high risky for the fast bucks. That's where Uncle Al came in. imo Uncle Al over shoot the last cycle of rate hike. Which cause some of this economic down fall, but was it a correspodence or a carefull collaboration of a market manipulation? Only the people in the loop will every know. As my traders know i called the last rate cut on the day it happen. No, big deal it wasn't a crystal ball. It was the big cry of damage control, the market was in it's highest peak of correction every reporting was back by a job cuts, Corprate America was saying "hey Uncle Al , we not taking it up the you know what for your mistake, fix it and fix now, or we cut jobs till we sent you in the economic depression that you are using to cover up your mistake." How you know all this you say, well if we are in such a high risk of economic depression, the the ppi and the Michangan confident numbers should never reflect what it did on friday. So what's next, The Fed Fund been predicting a 50pts. cut for the last week and half, till friday when the ppi and Mich. confident number came out, it trim itself to 25pts. cut for tuesday. Here's abit of trivia for you all, did you know the Fed Fund for the last 33 times on a friday before a Fed's Meeting of the following week was able to predict the rate cut, only missing for 2 times. hmm my money is on 25pts. Now, listen carefully, last week the Fed Fund was predicting a 50pts. cut so the market had time to start pricing in 50pts. then friday surprise, wooh wee this is getting good, i bet you Uncle Al had a big smile on friday, short term adjustment is working and no real need to have fast action adjustment, he can place the cuts in any form or when he likes now. No real need to show his hand. So what's this all mean, Tuesday we go 25pts. market will sell off, we go 50pts. we rally intraday. Then we will see a new cycle of downward trend better known as the Summer's Lows begining May 18th, with the ending of the reporting season. June will be the low point of this market with July having good swings with no real gain, Aug. we will start to see a bull formation, I wouldn't miss end of Aug for the world, Sept. the next bull run will be in full running. The remaining part of the year we will see some real good swing for trader, So for the investors i say check back in Sept.


Dayraider
kev.

 

[darth trader]

riz,

of course none of really know what is going to happen this week and the key to winning is to remain open minded and go with the flow.

However I am with your analysis all the way and August/September has been marked in my diary for a good while.

Apart from the economics the old saying sell in May and go away will make it difficult to sustain a rally from here onwards.

 

[titus-uk]

Win-win.....

If you can play the game, you are in a win-win situation. I am still trying to work out the rules!!!!!

I am sure I am repeating myself.....if we are at the top of a trading range, be ready to shotr (and make money), or be like me, and wait for the bottom....patience may mean staying out until we retest prev lows, but entering there could net a 50% profit.

If this is a pause before we go to 2500 on Naz, and reach decent resistance on other levels, then entering again goes to profit - though prob not as much as the first scenario.

I may not have learnt much, but I am learning to be more of a predator. Timing is everything. Patience coupled with precision makes the greatest combination, and what I am aiming to achieve.....likewise indecision leads to paralysis......


I'll get there eventually.....

Please, if you have not voted, please do! Collectively, we can call this right!

Thanks for the replies
Mark

 

[titus-uk]

As I am new to all this, I was interested by the US reaction to the Fed cut on 2 accounts. First, the lack of any real reaction when the cut was announced. Secondly, and of more concern, was how there was an attempted rally towards the end of the day, which fizzled out, leaving a tiny gain, and closing close to the days lows. Methinks the bulls are currently lacking any conviction, and surely a sell-off will follow.

If anyone has a diffferent opinion, I would be delighted to know and learn

Mark

 

[darth trader]

Mark,

I think that you are spot on. The markets got everything that could want - a half point cut and could not rally.

I take this to be a sign of a sick market.

 

[Riz]

Well Mark,

Looks like it's going to be leg up (re: my post above) since it came out as .50 + continuity possible...I therefore added one more (cw.) first thing this morning to my long positions thus putting my money where my mouth was...actually longed moni as well but closed right before close for a few points as I didn't like to hold on the day of results...

We'll find out if I've done the right thing tomorrow morning or later tonight, eh?

Riz

 

[darth trader]

Riz,

things are moving away from the direction I expected (and fast too!) but good luck to you and well done for taking the risk.

Shame that more people don't post regularly on the board it's very quiet at the moment. Maybe a good bull run will change things?

 

[titus-uk]

Riz, I really hope you are right (whilst I could do with it not occurring until Monday when hopefully I will be exam free!!). Haven't looked to see whats behind the US rises thus far, or whether it is simply US traders realising this was going to be as good as it is going to get. We'll see.......

Knowing my luck, all the fun will end by the time I am ready next week!!!!

Mark

 

[Riz]

Thanks Darth...and don't worry about the silence they did it before January rally too..for a while I felt I was talking to myself, had to provoke them sometimes...Now at least there are a few of us talking, the rest will join soon...and we'll enjoy reaidng their posts again, they are the best when they start thinking aloud

Riz

 

[titus-uk]

Decided to go into one that has always served me well this morning - IQE. Usually goes up as much as the likes of ARM, but less affected by day traders etc, with less price swings. Small gap up as well this am. (as I suspect many techs will have!!)

All the best,
Mark

 

[shelman]

Glad you got yours Riz.
I sold ARM +23 and MONI +40 this a.m. Bought MONI back at 373, maybe i'm being greedy but i've plenty of leeway.
From memory MONI did the same thing after the 1/2 year results ie marked up substantially at open followed by the pullback and then rose over the next 2 weeks. I suspect i 'll be closing a lot sooner than that though.
I thought you might have had another pop at TWT i bought Monday for 117.
Missed out on PON
Had a smallish gamble on BLM 68 and bought back KCOM 119... sold on 8th.
Still looking at THUS but can't figure whats going on.
Missed out on LOG twice after that cracker at the end of last month.
You can see i'm still slightly bullish but not that much that i don't take profit whenever it's there.
Be cautious everyone
Steve

 

[Riz]

hehe..

I like it when one of us posts their profit

Well done, Steve...glad you make good use of these up bounces...and wise enough to lock the profit and look elsewhere soon as they reach the level you're happy with...I am still holding all my positions plus PRH...got in first thing in the morning...

Also good on you Mark, IQE closed 6.2% up...I am sure if you were not fully occupied due to your profession you'd made more use of the current bounce up...hope you catch up next week then...

UK did not properly response to this last US rally however despite its economy being in much better conditions...still US full of optimism while UK full of pessimism...uk fund managers probably still pondering on the US markets future always more than they ever do

I am holding all my long positions over night as I still don't expect a US sell off starting tonight...as I said they are optimistic why should we cloud their judgement for whatever reasons...why shouldn't Dow try and turn 11000 resistance into its new support level? I wouldn't be surprised witnessing the dose of optimism over there...They don't want to fight the Fed why should the UK fund managers?

Riz

 

[shelman]

Did'nt take that long afterall for MONI to regain the lost ground

Marconi : Sales agreements worth #6bn
21/05/2001 10:35:08

Telecommunications equipment
manufacturer
Marconi
has sales
agreements worth a potential #6bn,
which have so far delivered firm orders
worth #2.6bn at March 31, Deputy Chief
Executive John Mayo said.
Mayo described the level of firm
orders book, which compared with firm
orders of #2.8bn at the end of
September, as "disappointing", but said
the company should over the longer term
see growth.
Speaking on the sidelines of the
Credit Suisse First Boston European
Technology Conference in Barcelona he
said that the company should show
pretty flattish growth over the next
six months.
He said it would be "phenomenal" if
growth was positive.
Mayo said the company continues to
seek ways to divest its medical
services division, but he would not be
drawn on whether the divestment would
occur through a sale, demerger or
initial public offering.
He added the strategy for divestment -
code named "superbowl two" - is in full
swing.
The company confirmed last week, when
it presented its full year results that
it was examining divestment
alternatives for the unit.
Marconi's "superbowl one" was the sale
of its defence and electronics
division, Marconi Electronic Systems in
1999, Mayo said.

 -By Brian Truscott in Barcelona; 0 77
601 777 35; [email protected]

10:34 May 21 2001


Steve