Installing New Beliefs

rfk_from_za

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After reading Socrates posts on developing a Trading Persona, and exploring some other trading psychology resources, along with my
own past experiences I have accepted that in order to become consistently profitable I need to fix me, not fix my market analysis.
So for the past couple of months I have been investigating the mentality that needs to be developed in order to consistently generate
a profit.

This thread will hopefully develop some discussion around techniques that can be used to help develop the right kind of mind-set.
I would like to state that I am not looking for a quick fix solution, I understand fully that this is going to be a long and possibly
painful journey.

So lets begin by making a few statements regarding the beliefs that I would like to install, that I feel need to be in place in
order to trade successfully, consistently and without becoming a nervous wreck

1. The future is unknown, we need to believe in uncertainty
2. Each trade is 100% independent of every other trade you have placed
3. How do you REALLY accept risk
4. How can we be open to all possibilities (even ones we know nothing about)
5. Learn to hope that a position will continue to move in my favour and learn to fear a position that is moving against me

What I would like to discuss in this thread is techniques that can be used to really make me believe the above statements so that
I can trade without any emotional attachment. I realise that its not the market's fault that my trade went against me and its no
good getting angry at the market and placing "revenge" trades. I learnt this pretty quick when I lost my first pot. Now obviously
I am a lot more cautious with my trades.

Now in terms of my system I have something that will generate a decent return and I am starting to accept that in order to get it
to work for me I need to execute every signal that it generates without fail in order to have a large enough sample size for the
edge to work on. I am getting better at that. I also realize that in order to stay in the game I need to have excellent money
management in place. This is an area I have fallen down on since I often take profits too soon and let my losses run. However I am working on this and
slowly becoming more consistent at only taking profits when my system says I should.

Would anyone here care to share their experiences on how they managed to break down their emotional attachment to their trades,
how did you deal with winning streaks causing you to place a larger trade, what did you do to stop yourself from letting your
losses run. What did you do in order to train yourself to let you profits run.

I understand that this may sound similar to other threads posted recently, however I would really like to focus on actual techniques or
experiences that you have had that aided you in installing new beliefs (i.e. having an ah ha moment!) and neutralising existing fears.

I have started a cognitive journal as suggested in the Brett Steenbarger thread, however I have not done it for long enough to see any
effect. If I do have some success with it I will post my thoughts in this thread.
 
My own experiences are reflected in the Trading Journals and The Edge threads below. Aside from that, you seem to have read Douglas, since much of your post is derived from his books. So let's start there (Steenbarger, of course, is an excellent companion).

You say you have a system and that it generates a decent return. This is not quite accurate. It is not the system that generates the return but you. You are in control, not the system. What the system "does" is irrelevant if you can't play it the way you're supposed to.

What you don't say is how extensively you've tested it. I'll decline from going into all that again here since I've done so in other threads, particularly Trading Journals. However, I'll reiterate that the more extensively you've tested your system, the clearer you will be regarding the ratio of wins to losses, the ratio of profit to loss, the longest uninterrupted string of losers you can expect, the drawdowns you can expect, etc. Once you've attained this sure-footedness, the "emotional issues" will largely vanish. You will cease to care much what the result of any given trade is because you will be confident that, over time, you will be able to implement your system/strategy profitably. On the flip side, if the flop sweat continues, you haven't tested thoroughly enough.

But as for "learning to hope" and "learning to fear", no. Hope and fear have no place in your trading. Relax, gain confidence in your strategy, implement it.

That's pretty much it.
 
The only way I found to break down the emotional attachment is to get your edge defined to the point where you do not have to question your next order because the rules have been predefined both in terms of where you will generate the order and in addition how much risk you will take on or take off at that point. If a trader is unable to have something defined in these terms than I think it will be an extremely difficult psychological journey that will most likely end in failure. It really is difficult enough just to follow the rules, but if the rules are not there.........
As time goes by and you become more confident and consistent it does get easier but it is never easy.
 
DBPhoenix

I have tested my system using the back testing module in my trading software, and am fully aware of the win/loss ratio, max drawdown and average risk/reward ratio. I completely agree with you that its up to me to place the orders that are generated by my system

So to sum up you are saying that in order for me to break down the fear of the uncertain (and accept it) I need to place trades with my system regularly and experience the results of those trades and see for myself that my edge works

I guess this could be done using a simulator (e.g. like http://www.bullbearings.com) so can see what its like to actually run my system. (This is something that I am already doing and it is proving useful. However since its using virtual money I am still buffered from the emotions of seeing my hard earned money slipping away if a position moves against me)

In terms of the Hope and Fear, I am of the school of thought that as human beings we experience emotions, and their is not all that much we can do about that, however I do believe we can train ourselves to experience different emotions based on similar stimuli. Hence the reason I said we should hope a position will continue moving in our direction, rather than fear it will turn around and go against us. Since this would make it easier to for us to let profits run. I do admit that this is a double-edged sword since it could cause us to leave profits on the table too long. I guess what I am trying to get at is rather than fighting our nature, maybe we can find a way to leverage it

I understand this view is contrary to that of most people on this board, so please feel free to debate it, ridicule it, or disregard it. It is but my humble opinion

I'll take a look through the threads you have suggested and see what questions they uncover.

TWalker

My system defines clear entry points and clear profit taking points, so I think I have that part covered. However as with most things I am still required to interpret (I believe this is the art of trading, rather than the science) the data presented to me. This leaves me open to rationalisation of bad trades, fear based trades that sort of thing.

So I guess this all down to self-discipline. (Another area of my life I am trying to improve). Would you care to share how you progressed to a state where you stopped second guessing your system or just how you increased your self-discipline in general
 
Would you care to share how you progressed to a state where you stopped second guessing your system or just how you increased your self-discipline in general

Keep a close log of exactly what happened when you followed your rules exactly and when you used discretion (including when you did not take trades that would have been profitable). Also follow how the system performed if you had done everything it asked and also keep account of unintentional errors you have made. Over time you will probably see that the PnL when you followed the rules will be a high percent of the system PnL and that the discretion PnL will work its way into a large negative. Errors always occur but you need to know how this evolves because they may make some systems unworkable. By doing this you will conclude before long that discretion outside your defined discipline is just a way to give money to others.
 
Before I enter a trade I work through a checklist ticking off the parameters of my system that an instrument meets, and placing crosses next to the ones it does not meet. If the ticks outweigh the crosses, then I enter the trade, if not I let it pass.

This list also includes a section for notes where I jot down any other things that I think are relevant when entering the trade. I also update this document as the trade progresses.

I have started to add emotional state to these sheets as well so I can try and identify any emotional patterns that may be present in the trades that fail. As well as identify emotions and thought patterns associated with trades that work so I can try to reinforce these.

Is this something you or anybody else has done. Since I am position trading, I find its not that much of a chore to do since I do my analysis after the market has closed.

I know there are many examples on this site, and even articles written about trading journals, I have read these and used them to get going, but I would like this thread to be place where we can explore each others methods in order to learn more about our own.

With this in mind would you care to describe the technique you used for your journal, ie. the kind of information that you took note of, how often you updated it. I am interested in the practicalities of it since I think a lot of new traders would find this information useful

Its fine telling people to keep a trading journal, but without telling them what should go in it, it leaves people to their own devices. I understand that the information in these journals will be tailored to the individual, however it is often useful to contrast one's own methods with those in use by others in order to profile and improve the efficiency of the system.
 
rfk_from_za said:
So to sum up you are saying that in order for me to break down the fear of the uncertain (and accept it) I need to place trades with my system regularly and experience the results of those trades and see for myself that my edge works

It's a beginning, yes.

I guess what I am trying to get at is rather than fighting our nature, maybe we can find a way to leverage it

It's not so much a question of fighting it as of freeing yourself from it. If you find yourself fighting your emotions, then you don't trust your strategy, and that should be your focus, not whatever emotional issues you think you may have.

Once you trust your strategy, you will find yourself not caring whether any given trade works out or not because you will have accepted the fact that (a) you can't know the outcome of any given trade and (b) it doesn't matter what the outcome is because over a series of trade of n length, you will come out a winner. Some people view this as becoming an automaton trader. I view it as Douglas does: becoming relaxed enough to make oneself available to whatever opportunities the market provides, which is difficult to do if one is all in a twist about the outcome of a particular trade.

Incidentally, this takes more than a few days . . .
 
rfk_from_za said:
Its fine telling people to keep a trading journal, but without telling them what should go in it, it leaves people to their own devices. I understand that the information in these journals will be tailored to the individual, however it is often useful to contrast one's own methods with those in use by others in order to profile and improve the efficiency of the system.

Can you provide a general summary of what your system is?
 
Sure its based on Chick Goslins 3 Line system. I have actually condensed this into a custom indicator I use in my trading software. This way I can screen stocks that meet the relevant criteria so I can be in the market most of the time.

I also include some interpretive items that help me gauge the strength of the price. For example is it making higher highs and higher lows. Are there any bearish candle/bar chart patters. Is it near recent resistance/support levels

The technical analysis is based on Chick's 3 line system, while the interpretive helps to give me a gut feel for the trade and determine if the timing is right (especially if the lines hint that an anticipatory position should be taken)

I look for the most recent market structure low/high and place my stop 2 points away from that. If its within the amount I wish to risk (2% of capital) and the technical and interpretive parts of the system agree - then I place a limit order for the next day to enter the trade.

I then take profits at 50%, 100% and 150% based on the amount I have risked. e.g if my stop is 8 points away I would close half my position after a move of 4 points in my direction, then 50% of the remainder at 8 points and the remainder at 12 points. Each time moving my stop up by 4 points

I have back-tested this system on the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250. It does not always work well for all stocks, so I tend to run a back-test on each stock before I decide to use this particular system on it. Since it obviously does not work very well on stocks that don't trend well.
 
Incidentally, this takes more than a few days . . .

Yeah, like I said in my first post I am not looking for a quick fix, and I am willing to do whatever it takes for as long as it takes to become successful at this.

I guess I am also looking at using this discussion to help reinforce the beliefs that I need to develop in order to 'Free' myself of my emotions whilst trading.

I prefer 'Free' since it means you accept your emotion, but you don't let it affect your trading. Maybe I have been interpreting the posts regarding controlling your emotions in the wrong light, maybe it is easier not to confront them in an adversarial manner but rather accept them and not react to them.

Am I on the right track
 
rfk_from_za said:
1. The future is unknown, we need to believe in uncertainty
2. Each trade is 100% independent of every other trade you have placed
3. How do you REALLY accept risk
4. How can we be open to all possibilities (even ones we know nothing about)
5. Learn to hope that a position will continue to move in my favour and learn to fear a position that is moving against me

What I would like to discuss in this thread is techniques that can be used to really make me believe the above statements so that
rfk_from_za
This could be a very interesting thread. You have posed a lot of questions and this could go in all sorts of directions, which I don't have time to explore properly at present.

One comment I will make, however, is with regard to point 1. You have used negative and pessimistic vocabulary here. In terms of installing new beliefs I think you should turn this saying around and write something like

1. I will increase my knowledge, skill and experience to fully undestand the market and its future direction. We need to believe in probability and risk and that we can take measures to avoid them.

By stating things this way it is positively goading you into action i.e. taking practical steps towards the aim of knowing the future direction of the market as precisely as possible

Charlton
 
rfk_from_za said:
I prefer 'Free' since it means you accept your emotion, but you don't let it affect your trading. Maybe I have been interpreting the posts regarding controlling your emotions in the wrong light, maybe it is easier not to confront them in an adversarial manner but rather accept them and not react to them.

Am I on the right track

Yes. And as to your comment about journal content, I can't help you much since your system is based on one or more indicators. However, if you haven't looked at Steenbarger's articles on journals in the Knowledge Lab, you should. His book is also good with regard to becoming your own trading coach, but I believe he has an article or two in the KL on this as well. The process is a little peculiar since it requires a level of objectivity that seems to be beyond many traders; however, since you're working on cognitive mapping anyway, it may not seem so far-fetched.
 
Charlton,

I agree this could go in alot of different directions. I am going to try and guide it down a practical route so that techniques are discussed. Since I feel that we can debate our beliefs until we are blue in the face, but until we say 'Try this' and you'll see I don't believe we are going to progress as traders.

Thats not to say I am looking to be spoon fed solutions, I am happy to put in whatever effort is required in order to explore the techniques various people on this board use in order to improve their consistency and accept what the market is telling them.

With regards to your statement about the first belief being negative. I disagree. Each outcome of a trade is completely uncertain. It only takes 1 trader to neutralize your edge for that trade. We become profitable by taking the trades that our edge presents to us and knowing that over a period of time our edge will work in our favour and we will be in proft. If we follow our system rigorously then each losing trade takes us closer to a winning trade.

However we should not be trying to predict the future, since if the future that plays out doesn't meet our expectations we will be disappointed (suffer emotional pain - which in turn affects our trading). I also don't believe that we should avoid risk, but instead we need to accept it. By this I mean choosing an amount of money we are comfortable spending (I chose this word carefully) to determine if our edge will work on this particular trade. If the trade our edge presents, doesn't conform to our risk criteria we should move on and look for the next one.Losses are the cost of doing business as a trader.

I agree that we need to learn as much as we can about the market in order to increase our edges performance over time. However I believe that any learning should be done with a purely speculative account, an account that contains money we have not hesitation in blowing whilst experimenting with and optimizing our existing system
 
rfk_from_za said:
Charlton,

I agree this could go in alot of different directions. I am going to try and guide it down a practical route so that techniques are discussed. Since I feel that we can debate our beliefs until we are blue in the face, but until we say 'Try this' and you'll see I don't believe we are going to progress as traders.

Thats not to say I am looking to be spoon fed solutions, I am happy to put in whatever effort is required in order to explore the techniques various people on this board use in order to improve their consistency and accept what the market is telling them.

With regards to your statement about the first belief being negative. I disagree. Each outcome of a trade is completely uncertain. It only takes 1 trader to neutralize your edge for that trade.
There is a probability associated with each trade which reflects your knowledge, skill and experience of that market. The greater your skills are the higher the probability that your entry correctly identifies the direction of the trade.
rfk_from_za said:
We become profitable by taking the trades that our edge presents to us and knowing that over a period of time our edge will work in our favour and we will be in proft.
The edge represents our knowledge, skill and experience. The trick is to make this work consistently in our favour in order to create winning trades
rfk_from_za said:
If we follow our system rigorously then each losing trade takes us closer to a winning trade.
If making trades was merely a matter of tossing a coin, then at each trade we would expect a 50:50 chance of a win over an extended period of time. However there is nothing in probability theory that states that just because you had 20 losses in a row the next trade is more likely to be a win. Each losing trade brings us nearer to bankruptcy and not to a winning trade, unless each loss is evaluated and the strategy is altered.

What makes for a winning trade is a strategy based on knowledge, skill and experience. The alterations applied to a losing strategy to turn it into a winning one is based on improving these personal factors
rfk_from_za said:
However we should not be trying to predict the future, since if the future that plays out doesn't meet our expectations we will be disappointed (suffer emotional pain - which in turn affects our trading). I also don't believe that we should avoid risk, but instead we need to accept it.
I am not suggesting that we predict the future, but rather that we build on our knowledge, skill and experience to properly evaluate probabilities thereby improving our entries, exits and money management techniques.

Yes - we should accept risk and work towards reducing it. As your thread is looking at installing new beliefs, my point about the wording is to change one's belief system to realising that we can do postive active things to evaluate probabilities more accurately and thereby reduce uncertainty.

It's the wording that counts here. In your original phrase you may be tempted to give up ("trading is not for me ") or become complacent ("well if I can't be certain about it I might as well go wild and use no strategy, because it cannot predict the future so is no better than a finger in the air "). Turn the wording around and that begins to instill the new belief system that there are things that you can do about uncertainty. These are the type of techniques used in self-hypnosis and NLP.
rfk_from_za said:
By this I mean choosing an amount of money we are comfortable spending (I chose this word carefully) to determine if our edge will work on this particular trade. If the trade our edge presents, doesn't conform to our risk criteria we should move on and look for the next one.Losses are the cost of doing business as a trader.
Agreed, but only if the losses result from adhering to your pre-defined strategy
rfk_from_za said:
I agree that we need to learn as much as we can about the market in order to increase our edges performance over time. However I believe that any learning should be done with a purely speculative account, an account that contains money we have not hesitation in blowing whilst experimenting with and optimizing our existing system
Agreed - paper trading as some suggest is useful in the early stages of stretegy production and to gain knowledge about particular instruments. It is also useful to become acquainted with brokers' platforms. It must be followed up with real trading in real accounts with real money, but as you say, money you can "afford" to lose. This money is then another trading expense. Real accounts serve to help you experience and thereafter free yourself emotionally.

Finally, on the subject of emotions, I agree with DbPhoenix that it is necessary to free oneself from them during the act of trading. Outside that arena have all the emotions you want, but during the actual act they get in the way. They tempt you to deviate from your pre-planned activities

In summary (to try to keep to your desire to discuss practical techniques)
- Create a trading plan (to be found on this site) and hone it to produce ever tighter entry, exit and money management strategies
- devise ways of evaluating probabilities, risk and reward ratios
- don't use negative wording. Rewrite affirmations in a positive way that indicate postive activities to be undertaken. Buy a book on self-hypnosis, affirmations or NLP if you require examples
- read your trading journal and plan. Update it regularly
- become completely fluent with your brokers' trading platform and other software you use, using paper trading. Set up suitable defaults e.g. lot size, type of order etc in advance
- open a small trading account with funding with amounts that you can afford to lose, but would make you sufficiently unconfortable in losing. Trade with suitably sized lots.
- create a trading environment that puts you into the frame of mind that you are now "at your business". In this environment switch off your emotions.

Charlton
 
Both of you are correct within your own spheres, but you are each beginning from different foundations.

Charlton, according to the precepts which rfk is following, the outcome of each trade is unknowable. I happen to agree. But that's not all there is to it. Over a series of trades, one can increase the probability that over that series one will be profitable. Consistent winning does not mean winning every time. Any given trade is immaterial to the overall result.

Similarly, each losing trade does in fact take us closer to a winning trade, but this has nothing to do with tossing coins. It has to do with the testing and the development of a consistently profitable strategy. If one knows that in any given string of trades there will be n losers, and one has logged in those losers, the probabilities -- given the testing that has been done -- greatly favor a number of winning trades. If they don't appear, then there is a disconnect between the strategy and market realities at the time of the trades.

Therefore, there is no negativity in rfk's initial remarks; they are instead an acknowledgement of the way things are according to the precepts on which he is basing his approach to the market. You may disagree, but that doesn't mean that he is misguided.
 
DB

Thanks very much, I could not have put it better myself.

Charlton

Maybe my view would be made more succinct if I give you my view on what an edge is and how knowledge, skill and experience factor into my trading

I see an edge as a system that has been rigorously tested via back-testing, paper trading and then actual trading, that when executed precisely will generate a return on our initial investment. In order to improve the effectiveness of - optimise - our edge we need to increase our trading knowledge, improve the skill with which we execute our system and evaluate the experiences that have occurred due to the execution of our system (our edge)

I also think we may have different views on whether uncertainty should have a positive or negative connotation. In many situations in life there is uncertainty and it can cause you to experience negative emotions. However there are also situations where uncertainty causes feelings of elation and excitement (think your partner telling you they have a surprise for you when you get home). I guess what I am getting at when I say "The future is unknown, we need to believe in uncertainty" is that regardless of how good a trader you are and how much knowledge, skill and experience you may have - you will lose money on a trade at some point.

I was definitely not saying that the future is uncertain so just throw all your rules out the window, I am merely saying you can't win all the time - accept it and make sure your system has adequate risk management in place to ensure your losses are small and quick. I do realise however that the statement could be interpreted that way.

I am merely trying to foster a belief in myself that I can't get it right 100% of the time because each trades outcome is uncertain. Therefore I should not attach any emotional weight (i.e. expectation) to a trade. The moment I have expectations, I narrow my focus to only data that reinforces my expectations in order to avoid the emotional pain of my expectations possibly not being met. This may cause me to miss a signal that would have allowed me to take an existing profit, or possibly cut a loss.

So I think we are on the same page when it comes down to the nitty gritty and I do agree with all the practical points you raised (developing a trading plan, becoming proficient with your brokers platforms etc) and thank you for keeping it, erm - practical :cool:

In order to further the discussion of the practical aspects how have you (and others) improved your discipline with regards to execution of your chosen system. How do you stop yourself from second guessing it and doing things like widening a stop order or over-trading.

Rob

PS I am extremely happy with the way this thread is progressing. Keep it up guys
 
rfk_from_za said:
PS I am extremely happy with the way this thread is progressing. Keep it up guys

Don't press your luck :)

In order to further the discussion of the practical aspects how have you (and others) improved your discipline with regards to execution of your chosen system. How do you stop yourself from second guessing it and doing things like widening a stop order or over-trading.

1. For the largest part, the testing. And the testing is comprised of two major elements, both of which must be present: first, that it is consistently profitable, and second, that it makes sense (the latter is very often not a component of strategies/systems).

2. Maintaining control of the trading environment while at the same time relinquishing the ego. This is partly Douglas (even though you have no control over the market, you have total control over your response to it) and partly Steenbarger (the trading coach as concurrent persona).

3. Not only accepting the fact of loss, but embracing it. If loss disturbs you in any way, then you haven't accepted the fact of it. This alone prompts a number of self-sabotaging behaviors: getting revenge on the market, over-trading to compensate for loss, failing to take every trade that the strategy calls for, reluctance to pull the trigger, chasing price after having been reluctant to pull the trigger, etc. If you believe that you must win, that loss is unacceptable, that you must have made an error if you took a loss, losses will become debilitating.

Two other sources which are extremely good with regard to the mental state are Vad Graifer's book and Phillips' Zen and the Art of Poker.

This sort of thing can't be reduced to a message board post. It would be nice to have a series of threads discussing each and all of these aspects of trading, but that's not possible except in a private group. Too bad. But both Vad and Steenbarger are members and might respond to PMs.
 
dbphoenix said:
3. Not only accepting the fact of loss, but embracing it. If loss disturbs you in any way, then you haven't accepted the fact of it. This alone prompts a number of self-sabotaging behaviors: getting revenge on the market, over-trading to compensate for loss, failing to take every trade that the strategy calls for, reluctance to pull the trigger, chasing price after having been reluctant to pull the trigger, etc. If you believe that you must win, that loss is unacceptable, that you must have made an error if you took a loss, losses will become debilitating.

Beginning traders have more losses than those who have outlasted the newbie phase. And in my case, after backtesting and forward testing at least 1/2 my losses during the live paper trading phase were the result of error on my part. I expect this is normal, and it dropped dramatically after I quit expecting perfection and stopped beating myself up when I didn't get it. Improvement is my goal, since I don't expect to obtain perfection this week. ;) Recognizing your setup in real time takes some practice.

The thing I found most helpful was to print the chart at the end of the day, hand draw the trades on it, and make notes about what needed to be improved. I removed the words, coulda, should, and woulda from my trading journal vocabulary. I also make entries that are completely postitive - for example, instead of saying,
' Don't ______' I write: 'Next time, look for ___ , then do _____'

I really enjoy Steenbarger's idea of pretending to be my own coach. It allows me to treat myself with extra kindness and patience when I talk to myself.
JO
 
JumpOff said:
I really enjoy Steenbarger's idea of pretending to be my own coach. It allows me to treat myself with extra kindness and patience when I talk to myself.
JO
Amen
 
Thanks for those resources DB. I will try to take a look at them over the easter break. You mentioned keeping control of your trading environment would care to elaborate on this. I assume you're talking about ensuring you aren't interrupted while you are trading. That you have any resources you may need to hand (i.e. reference material, news reports etc)

Do you use any of Steenbarger's techniques like cue cards?

JumpOff

This pretty much mirrors my experiences. Many of my early losses were down to revenge trading or over-trading in order to recover my losses. I actually remember going cold at some points when a trade moved against my position, but just sitting there and letting it run. Its only after losing 2 pots that I have decided I can't carry on in that fashion and that I need to really sort myself out.

My main reason for wanting to become a trader is down to my view on employment. I got made redundant twice in the space of 6 months in 2000/2001 and then decided to go contracting since I did not want to ever put my life in someone else's hands. I see trading as a further extension of this.

So now just like my contracting I need to ensure I have enough knowledge and skill to make a success of it.

Thanks for sharing your techniques regarding your trading journal, NLP has also been something I have been experimenting with.

Has anyone explored any resources regarding development of self-discipline (i.e. the sitting on your hands part of trading) especially resources that relate to self-discipline and its application to trading. I know of Mark Douglas' "The Disciplined Trader" but would be interested to know of any other resources (preferably free and on the web)

I also think it would be useful if we could come up with some exercises that members could try that would aid them in increasing their trading discipline. Even if no one actually tries them it would be a way of taking our concepts/beliefs and putting them down on paper in concrete examples.

Your thoughts?
 
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