I'm a masochist & it's hurting my trading :(

DashRiprock said:
but with fx you also got loads of stuff behind the scenes that u r never goin to know about like big orders into fixes or if someone is short a load of gamma before a cut or sumthin, and obvious all the flows of normal day things that u r just never goin to know about.

with index futures it would be dead easy just to get somethin like ninjatrader (not great but ok) and a datafeed for the constituent stocks and be able to have set start and finish times and better quality informaion like volumes and stuff... because like just having graphs up all day long and occaisionally lookin at them and goin "oh thats a head and shoulders" is not really trading goodly IMO
Click to expand...

I'm not really one for trading those sort of patterns and i'm probably one of the last people you'll hear talking about head & shoulders/fibonacci retracements etc. Is being aware of volumes such a huge advantage? What's there to stop someone coming along and just dumping a few thousand lots on to the market. Won't adding more parameters to my trading just make things even more complex?

BeginnerJoe said:
If you want to reduce complexity, trade individual FTSE100 stocks. These are much more predictable and the trade finishes at 4:30 on the dot. Although, on occasions you'd still get run over by the macro economic freight train.
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The one thing about stocks is they move really slowly. They move a lot on the open, then settle down and then don't move much else except for maybe near close. Let's say we're trading Rio Tinto, then we have to be aware of a) what's going on with rio tinto (b) what's going on in the mining sector (c) what's happening with commodities prices (d) what's happening generally with indices (e) macro news which could possibly affect it eg. weather/war/interest rates etc. and we can keep going with F & G etc. but i'll stop there. Also another problem is the cost is higher than trading FX/indices and for something such as Rio Tinto/Barclays which is so strongly correlated with the index, you may as well trade the index. I don't really think much is predictable these days though :)

Bint_Crusher said:
I put some links on here that would help yer masochistic tendencies but I got banned for a week for doing so.
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Try again, I think I missed it :LOL:
 
Masq, how do you know that you have a winning system, even if you could trade it perfectly? It's quite possible that by averaging down you could be making good % returns most days on a losing system, and then that day in the month happens and you blow 20-30%. This happens rarely enough for you to think you have a winning system.
 
Admittedly some of my biggest profits in the past have come as a result of averaging positions and trading without a stop. So I can't ignore that. Lately, I had not been averaging on such a frequent basis as back in the day and I did get it away some of the time and others I ended up getting burnt. I think I could trade like that and turn a profit, but i'll know that at some point there will be another bump in the road so i'd rather try nip it in the bud and avoid the big drawdowns.

How do I know I have a winning system? Does anyone ever really know? What size sample do you need to definitively say you have a winning strategy? Some may argue that 1000 trades isn't enough, is 5000 trades enough? What's the long run? Some of these position traders may take a handful of trades over the year and make less trades in a decade than i've made in a week. Does that mean they have a winning system or are just cheating variance? So the point is: to the best of my knowledge, I think I can do something in the market which will yield a profit in the long term.
 
Masquerade said:
How do I know I have a winning system? Does anyone ever really know? What size sample do you need to definitively say you have a winning strategy? Some may argue that 1000 trades isn't enough, is 5000 trades enough? What's the long run? Some of these position traders may take a handful of trades over the year and make less trades in a decade than i've made in a week. Does that mean they have a winning system or are just cheating variance? So the point is: to the best of my knowledge, I think I can do something in the market which will yield a profit in the long term.
Click to expand...

Does anyone know? Yes, I know I have a robust methodology. One that through observation and practice yields consistent results...time after time after time across many instruments. Do I always judge correctly? No, of course not, I make mistakes but I am never left baffled as to why the market acted the way it did,before or after I have traded.

I doubt very much that you have a robust methodology because if you did, patience wouldn't be a problem at all, irrespective of 'timeframe'. Either you know what is what or you don't, and my guess is, you don't.
 
But is your sample size significant? It doesn't matter if it's worked for a few years or a decade. Is it a significant sample & where do you draw the line?
 
Masq, you can argue about significance and so on, but that's getting off the point. You started the thread because you recognise there is a problem with your trading. It's irrelevant whether new_trader, me or anyone else has a significant trading edge. What -is- relevant, is that you're not sure if your own trading method has one. You don't trust it, because you break the rules, repeatedly. You know that averaging down can give you a good return some days, and you reinforce that by trading that way. You then blame the inevitable large loss on not following the rules, and fool yourself. Is that a fair assessment?
 
Masquerade said:
What size sample do you need to definitively say you have a winning strategy?
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The real answer is that you can never honestly know due to the nature of the problem. Ive seen mechanical systems do well for over 10,000 trades then completely fall apart. Thats why you need to define definate draw down limits and utilise a fair degree of diversification.

God only know how the discretionary guys handle this. I suspect that most of the time they are deluding themselves and just being fooled by randomness.
 
Shakone said:
Masq, you can argue about significance and so on, but that's getting off the point. You started the thread because you recognise there is a problem with your trading. It's irrelevant whether new_trader, me or anyone else has a significant trading edge. What -is- relevant, is that you're not sure if your own trading method has one. You don't trust it, because you break the rules, repeatedly. You know that averaging down can give you a good return some days, and you reinforce that by trading that way. You then blame the inevitable large loss on not following the rules, and fool yourself. Is that a fair assessment?
Click to expand...

I trust my trading abilities, one of them being in adapting to a market and having a general idea what's going on and the best way I can position myself to take advantage of it. My breach of rules is not out of trust, it's impatience such as taking marginal trades even if I didn't think they were good. Today was an example where I didn't feel there was much worth doing so I disappeared and have now closed my platform for once.

I know that averaging down and playing with no stop is a way of getting an account to grow fast, but one thing i've come to realise is that taking a small loss every now and then will help account growth more than taking no loss and a big loss occasionally.
 
Masquerade said:
But is your sample size significant? It doesn't matter if it's worked for a few years or a decade. Is it a significant sample & where do you draw the line?
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C'mon Masq...How many objects do you need to drop before you understand the concept of gravity? Gravity works, always and everywhere, I doubt NASA has a plan B in case the laws of gravity suddenly change. Like most people, you are confusing a 'system' with an 'understanding'.
 
I'm discretionary, my trading does not require MA's to crossover and co-incide with the RSI and MACD etc.

ps. Gravity doesn't work everywhere ;)
 
rite this is my guess (im rly a v perceptive person). Lucozade this mite sound bad against you but its no personal its just what i rekon.

* you don't actually have any trading rules
* you dont have a solid record of your trades
* you watch screens all day waitng for inspiration 4 a trade
* you thank that doing that is what trading is
* you are afraid to commit to one strategy in case it doesn't work (fear of failure)
* you probably mope about all day doing f*ck all, but because the screens are on you "trading"
* you are waiting for something external to turn your trading around
* you prolly give to much credit to what other people say

now this is what I think u can do

* write down your trading rules good and proper. Like opening, opening range, close, etc
* switch to futures
* have plans for a trade BEFORE the open... so like look at overnight action, mark out areas of interest and have a few plans lined up
* wait until one of them comes up, and then look at the tape to see if u like the trade or not
* follow plan on trade management and exit
* keep a journal!!
* dont look at markets after hours
* dont go in chat rooms where eberyone is doing the same thing
 
DashRiprock said:
rite this is my guess (im rly a v perceptive person). Lucozade this mite sound bad against you but its no personal its just what i rekon.

* you don't actually have any trading rules - I have some trading rules, I have nothing specific as in wait for X & Y to happen and then do this. I don't have a daily stop loss which perhaps would be an idea to look into...
* you dont have a solid record of your trades - I have access to all my trades from my broker, I don't go through them after the event and see if there's something I could have done differently. I just try and make the best decisions for the time
* you watch screens all day waitng for inspiration 4 a trade - I'm by the screen waiting for a good opportunity to occur. Some days I turn up with no fixed strategy per se and will see how the day unfolds before committing. I don't think that's really a terrible thing although i'm sure some people would be uncomfortable in doing that
* you thank that doing that is what trading is
* you are afraid to commit to one strategy in case it doesn't work (fear of failure) - There's only a few things I do and they're somewhat based on the same strategy. Do you think i'm better off just doing one thing and then maybe trade it over a few pairs instead?
* you probably mope about all day doing f*ck all, but because the screens are on you "trading" - I don't know about mope, but I am by a screen most of the day because I don't want to miss something and I don't exactly have reports to be writing. I'm not trading all the time, but i'm trying to keep informed of what's going on in the market so I have an idea for those few minutes/hours that I have a trade on
* you are waiting for something external to turn your trading around - Nothing external to turn it around - hence this thread and my implementation of a hard stop loss and vowing to not average. Now it's up to me, it always has been.
* you prolly give to much credit to what other people say - If I follow that point then surely you must appreciate that I shouldn't give you too much credit :) I listen to what people say, think about it and see if there's value in what is being said. Not all advice is good and it's up to me to filter out some of the rotten stuff. I am in occasional contact with a successful trader and some mind person. Obviously not everyone on the forum are trading multi millionaires, but then again Tiger Wood's golf coach isn't necessarily the best golfer in the world

now this is what I think u can do

* write down your trading rules good and proper. Like opening, opening range, close, etc - Yes, I can write down some of that stuff
* switch to futures - I'm trading FX, are you recommending I switch to something else? Any reason in particular to trade futures? Also what size would I be required to trade and how much do I need to trade futures? It may turn out that i'm under-financed to pursue that route
* have plans for a trade BEFORE the open... so like look at overnight action, mark out areas of interest and have a few plans lined up - I'll definitely check out the areas before I go to sleep. Sometimes in the day I see a good trade and find myself looking for areas to get to and I could do some of that in advance.
* wait until one of them comes up, and then look at the tape to see if u like the trade or not
* follow plan on trade management and exit
* keep a journal!! - An actual journal on T2W or one for myself? I was thinking of doing one on T2W but a friend of mine said I should keep my trading my own business. Also, if things go well I don't want to reply to hundreds of PM's and people asking me to trade their money and there's the issue that although a journal may help me with responsibility/accountability it may place the wrong sort of pressure on me.
* dont look at markets after hours - I'm trying not to, I closed my platform about 6pm and I have looked at the price online every now and then but trying not to look. Just I have some weird curiousity that I always want to know where the market's trading.
* dont go in chat rooms where eberyone is doing the same thing - The only chat room I go to is full of the pros and they're not trading the same thing as me. Most of the stuff they're talking about is pretty irrelevant and meaningless to me. I only pop in there occasionally to make a guest appearance :cool:
Click to expand...

Replies in bold. Thanks for the post - I can take it, the market's given me a lot worse :LOL:
 
rite

I have some trading rules, I have nothing specific as in wait for X & Y to happen and then do this. I don't have a daily stop loss which perhaps would be an idea to look into...

yeah you should def have rism management rules to stop u blowin up like loss limits, enforced holidays and things. You also should rite down what u are lookin for in a trade... like r u lookin to trade or fade breakouts? it dont have to be like 100% but u should hav idea about what you re lookin for

I have access to all my trades from my broker, I don't go through them after the event and see if there's something I could have done differently. I just try and make the best decisions for the time

put them all in excel so u can get better idea of how performance is... just an upward account balance is good but not rirly enough. as w3ll you can see results of getting better

I'm by the screen waiting for a good opportunity to occur. Some days I turn up with no fixed strategy per se and will see how the day unfolds before committing. I don't think that's really a terrible thing although i'm sure some people would be uncomfortable in doing that

but if u dont say what a good opportunity is before you look 4 one how will u know when u find it??? no fixed strategy is recipe for disaster.

There's only a few things I do and they're somewhat based on the same strategy. Do you think i'm better off just doing one thing and then maybe trade it over a few pairs instead?

in teh beginning i rekon u shud pick one idea and practive ur discipline bcos that seems to be not a strenght of your yet. of course you can add more trading ideas and do them when your discipline is better, and tbh you can have a few versions of same strategy going concurrently (like, say, look to fade breakout highs or Hi volume areas)

I don't know about mope, but I am by a screen most of the day because I don't want to miss something and I don't exactly have reports to be writing. I'm not trading all the time, but i'm trying to keep informed of what's going on in the market so I have an idea for those few minutes/hours that I have a trade on

well this is a bit bad i think. i mean it only makes sense to be in front of acreen all day if you are being paid to be on front of a screen all day. like its great to be able to talk the talk and sound like u know whats goin on, but really everything that gets to your end has had all the value taken from it by the time u know. same for most of us.

also it means there arnt barriers which means life is hoimogenous gloop of trading but not actually trading which is quite miserabe.

Nothing external to turn it around - hence this thread and my implementation of a hard stop loss and vowing to not average. Now it's up to me, it always has been.

ok good but hard stop and not averaging wont solve all problems if u ask me

f I follow that point then surely you must appreciate that I shouldn't give you too much credit I listen to what people say, think about it and see if there's value in what is being said. Not all advice is good and it's up to me to filter out some of the rotten stuff. I am in occasional contact with a successful trader and some mind person. Obviously not everyone on the forum are trading multi millionaires, but then again Tiger Wood's golf coach isn't necessarily the best golfer in the world

yes absolutely u shud just think of what i am sayin as from a w@nker on the internet just liek everyone else is saying. Honest I am not in position to say "do this and u will get better" or "i make half a bar doing this so follow me" but what i can say is to people on the same track that i went left there and was dead end, i went this way and it got better for me.

and remember that not everyone is coming from same place with same direction. like, say the hare, seems good bloke and good lulz and i think knows his part of trading quite well but about trading what he says is different to what i think. but i mean i dont think hes a plonker like howard just on different track. on same not always there will be perple on same track in front of you and always nice to ask them if they have any pointer for you. like i PM'd someone on here last week basically to say "mad props to you" and now I have nice pointers and information for the next stages of my trading. always always always always learning in trading.

Yes, I can write down some of that stuff

yes i think this will be a good idea, and to write down what u are looking for in a trade. As well, dont say "well if this doesn't happen, im lookin for that, and then this, blah blah". Just pick one idea and write down what your ideal trade from it.

I'm trading FX, are you recommending I switch to something else? Any reason in particular to trade futures? Also what size would I be required to trade and how much do I need to trade futures? It may turn out that i'm under-financed to pursue that route

rite, i deff suggest interest rate, bond, index or energy futures. the reason is for a few reasong.

1) set trading times... now 1 good thing from this is that it gives structure to the day, other is that there are times/levels that everyone sees the same as (like yeday high)

2) you get volume and order book and can join bid and offer. there is big difference between new highs with loads and loads and loads ov contracts trading to new highs with nuthing trading. yes it is one more thing to consider but there is i rekon a sweet spot of price, volume, sentiment. any less is too simple any more is too complicated.

3) lots of people are making money doing it. only one I can think of doing fx from spreadbetting is bramble.

account with an fcm can prolly be done for $5,000 which tbh is quite undercapitalised for most contracts. but if u go in arabians STIR room, $5k is enough say to do some bor or dollars, and u will have talkings to people doing similar trading. also, because they no u are doing not much lots, they are unlikely to shaft you :) dollars might be better bços AFAIK they are time order not pro-rata which will make big of diffrence. Bad news is that u will pay loads in commissions, BUT, with a few tools in ninjatrader u can have goos setup for trading outrights. comms will be mad high tho so dont buy ferrari yet.

I'll definitely check out the areas before I go to sleep. Sometimes in the day I see a good trade and find myself looking for areas to get to and I could do some of that in advance.

lookin overnight is stupid unless you are goin to trade it of have position on. def good idea to set out plan for the day before the "open" so you arnt second guessing urself when its all going off. problem with 24/5 fx is that every second there is new information. benefit of fixed openings and closins is that in between ther is time to take a breath and look at the static information then decide what the plan is.

An actual journal on T2W or one for myself? I was thinking of doing one on T2W but a friend of mine said I should keep my trading my own business. Also, if things go well I don't want to reply to hundreds of PM's and people asking me to trade their money and there's the issue that although a journal may help me with responsibility/accountability it may place the wrong sort of pressure on me.

dont really need to be in internet, but deff have some journal saying to yourself int he morning - what you plan to do, the areas you are interested and what you are looking for when it gets there, and , after, if it did or if it didnt and what you did good and what you can do better on and what you can do next time to get better.

I'm trying not to, I closed my platform about 6pm and I have looked at the price online every now and then but trying not to look. Just I have some weird curiousity that I always want to know where the market's trading.

same things wth the futures, have an off time and stay to it

The only chat room I go to is full of the pros and they're not trading the same thing as me. Most of the stuff they're talking about is pretty irrelevant and meaningless to me. I only pop in there occasionally to make a guest appearance

thats nice i spose, but only good in going is if they are on the same track as you.








like all this is not gospel at all just i think u have been very honest and if anything i can say helps you then u are welcome (y)
 
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