IKOFX Daily Market Analysis

[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD Testing An Important Resistance

The British pound after falling sharply to the new lows against the US dollar managed to gain buyers around the 1.4600 support area. The pair is now correcting higher and testing an important resistance area around the 1.4980-1.5000 levels. Let us see how sellers react around the mentioned area and whether they can manage to protect upside in the near term or not. In the UK, the CBI Industrial Trends Survey, which gives expert qualitative opinion from senior manufacturing executives, on past and expected trends in output, exports, prices, costs, investment intentions, business confidence and capacity utilization will be released by the Confederation of British Industry. The forecast is of 9 compared to last reading of 10.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which is acting as a barrier for the pair in the short term. The most important point is that the same trend line is sitting around a critical level i.e. the 1.50 swing level. So, we need to see whether the British pound buyers can manage to clear the mentioned resistance area or not. The 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5164 high to 1.4685 low is also sitting around the same trend line. In short, a break above the 1.50 level might encourage the British pound buyers moving ahead and could take it towards the last swing high of 1.5150.

If the GBPUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then initial support is around the 200 hour simple moving average.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the GBPUSD pair as long as it stays above the 200 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Looks Set For More Gains

The Aussie dollar was seen trading higher recently against the US dollar, as the latter one got weakened across the board. The AUDUSD pair gained traction and cleared an important resistance area around the 0.7850 level, which might now turn into a support area in the near term. Let us see how the pair trades in the short term and whether it can surge higher or not. Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian Conference Board Australia leading Index, which measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek and initial claims was released by the Conference Board. There was no change from the previous gain of 0.4%.

There is a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which might act as a hurdle if the pair moves lower from the current levels. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7660 low to 0.7900 high is also sitting around the same trend line. The hourly RSI is heading towards the 50 level. So, a lot of things are aligning for a major support around the 0.7850 level. Let us see how the Aussie dollar buyers react when it reaches around the mentioned fib level. The AUDUSD pair is well above the 200 and 100 hour moving averages, which is a positive sign.

If the AUDUSD pair moves higher from the current levels, then a retest of the recent high at 0.7900 is very likely in the short term.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the AUDUSD pair as long as it stays above the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Buy Dips In EURGBP

The Euro was a better performer recently not only against the US dollar, but also against the British pound. Yesterday, there were some important releases in the Euro zone, which were on the positive side, and helped the Euro to some extent. The EURGBP pair traded higher, but found resistance around the 0.7360-70 levels. It is currently moving lower and might present a chance of buying in the near term. Today, the German business sentiment index, which is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany will be released by the CESifo Group. The forecast is of a rise from 106.8 to 107.3.Let us see how the outcome affects the Euro moving ahead.

There was a crucial contracting triangle formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was broken recently by the Euro buyers. As mentioned, the pair is now correcting lower with immediate support around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last move from the 0.7226 low to 0.7370 high. However the most important one is around the 38.2% fib retracement level, which is around the broken triangle. There is a chance that the Euro buyers might appear around 0.7320-10 levels and take it higher one more time. The pair is placed well above the 200 and 100 hourly moving averages, which is a positive sign in the near term.

If the EURGBP pair moves higher from the current levels, then a retest of the recent high at 0.7370 is likely moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the EURGBP pair as long as it stays above the 38.2% fib level.

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[team.ikofx]

USDJPY Likely To Trade Lower

The US dollar continued to trade lower and struggled to gain bids against most major currencies. The USDJPY pair traded lower and every time it managed to correct higher sellers protected the upside. There were some releases lined up today during the Asian session in Japan. Japanese Securities investment representing bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic market’s currency plus it highlights the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan was released by Ministry of Finance. It posted a reading of ¥765.5B, compared to the last reading of ¥551.1B. The USDJPY pair was seen trading a bit lower after the release.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which is stalling the upside in the pair. There were around 5 attempts made to break the highlighted trend line, but the US dollar buyers failed to breach it. The pair after failing moved lower, and it looks like it is moving back towards the recent low of 119.22. If it retest the trend line, then it would be interesting to see how sellers react, as the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from 119.97 high is also around the same area. A break above the trend line might negate the bearish view in the short term for USDJPY.

On the downside, the recent low of 119.20 holds the key. Any further bearish momentum could easily take the pair towards the 119.00 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair as long as it stays below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

EURUSD Poised For More Downsides

There Euro traded lower recently against the US dollar, and lost most of its gains. The EURUSD pair also broke an important support on the hourly chart, which suggests that the pair is likely to continue trading lower. We need to see how the price action develops in the near term and whether the US dollar can perform well moving ahead. There is a crucial release lined up in the US, as the Gross Domestic Product Annualized measuring the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time will be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which can cause moves in the US dollar.

There was a crucial bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which was breached by the Euro sellers. The most important thing to note is that the same trend line is also coinciding with the 100 hour SMA. So, the recent break was very critical and suggests that the pair might continue trading lower. It is currently correcting higher and might test the broken 100 hour MA. Moreover, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1050 high to 1.0855 low is also around the same level, which might protect more gains in the EURUSD pair. The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which is another bearish sign.

On the downside, a break of the recent low of 1.0855 might ignite sharp losses in EURUSD.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURUSD pair as long as it stays below the 100 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD Facing A Monster Resistance

There British pound managed to recover some ground against the US dollar this past week, but later it failed to maintain the momentum. The economic releases in the US were mixed, which caused a bit of downside momentum. There looks a possibility that the GBPUSD pair might head lower one more time as buyers were seen struggling in the near term. In the UK today, the Mortgage Approvals representing the number of various Mortgage Approvals will be released by the Bank of England. Let us see how the outcome falls in into place, as the market is expecting it to post a reading of 62.000K, up from the last reading.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which is protecting the upside in the pair. Every time buyers took the pair higher the trend line stalled the upside. The 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4993 high to 1.4795 low is also sitting around the same area. Moreover, the 100 hour simple moving average is aligned just below the highlighted trend line. So, the pair might find a lot of sellers at 1.4880-90 area if it trades higher in the near term. A break above the trend line and resistance area might ignite a bullish pressure on the pair, and could take it towards the 1.4920 levels.

On the downside, the most important support is around the 200 hour SMA where buyers might take a stand.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPUSD pair as long as it stays below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Sell Rallies In AUDUSD

The US dollar surged higher against most major currencies recently, including the Aussie dollar. The main reason for that was the economic releases in the US, which were on the positive side. The AUDUSD pair traded lower and even challenged the 0.7640 support area. Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian HIA New Home Sales representing the number of new home sales in Australia was released by the Housing Industry Association. The outcome was on the lower side, as it gained by 1.1% in February 2015, compared to the last increase of 1.8%. This also pushed the AUDUSD pair lower.

There are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which are acting as a hurdle for the Aussie dollar buyers. The pair is currently trading around the first trend line and struggling to settle above it. If it clears the same, then there is a chance of the pair testing the second major bearish trend line. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7808 high to 0.7633 low is just below the trend line. So, there is a major resistance forming around the 0.7680 level where the Aussie dollar sellers could appear and protect the upside. Any further gains look impossible as of now, as the US dollar is still on the top and might continue to trade higher in the near term.

On the downside, the last low around 0.7640 remains the key for AUDUSD, as a break below the same might call for more losses.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the AUDUSD pair as long as it stays below the major bearish trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Can EURAUD Break Lower?

The Euro traded higher recently against the Aussie dollar, but failed to gain momentum above the 1.4180 level. The EURAUD pair is currently moving lower and testing an important support area. If the Euro sellers manage to gain control, then a break below the same might take the pair lower moving ahead. Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian AIG performance of the Mfg. Index, which represents business conditions in the Australian manufacturing sector was released by the Australian Industry Group. It posted a rise to 46.3 in March 2015, compared to last reading of 45.4. This might help the Aussie dollar in the near term and cause downside in EURAUD.

There is a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURAUD pair, which was beached to some extent recently. However, the pair is making an attempt to close above it one more time. If that happens, then the pair might regain bids in the near term. Alternatively, if it continues to trade lower, then initial support is around the 100 hour simple moving average, which is positioned just below the highlighted trend line. Moreover, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.3869 low to 1.4180 high is also around the same area. There is one bearish sign to note, as the hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which could encourage sellers.

If the EURAUD pair moves higher from the current levels, then a move towards the 1.4150 level is possible.

Overall, one might consider selling one the EURAUD pair settles below the 100 hour SMA with a tight stop of 15 pips.

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[team.ikofx]

NZDUSD Looks Set For A Break Lower

The New Zealand dollar continued to struggle against the US dollar, and every time the NZDUSD pair moved higher, it found resistance. There are a couple of major barriers on the way up for the pair, which is stalling the upside in the short term. Earlier today, the ANZ Commodity Price, which is considered as an early indicator of export price changes was released by the ANZ National Bank. It registered a reading of 4.6% in March 2015, compared to the previous revised reading of 4.2%. The New Zealand dollar was seen trading lower after the release to test the 0.7420 support area.

There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which stalled the upside many times. Recently, the pair failed around the highlighted trend line, which was also coinciding with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7591 high to 0.7391 low. There are many bearish signs on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair. The most important one is the fact that the pair is below the 100 simple moving average, followed by the RSI below the 50 level. If the pair makes an attempt to move higher from the current levels, then it might find resistance around the 0.7460 confluence area where sellers might appear.

On the downside, the last low of 0.7390 is a support, and a break below the same could ignite downside pressure on NZDUSD in the short term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the NZDUSD pair as long as the pair is below the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

EURUSD Likely To Gain Strength

The Euro was one of the best performers against the US dollar recently, as it surged higher and breached important resistance area of 1.0800. The EURUSD pair gained a lot of bids and blasted higher to test the 1.0900 levels. It is now correcting lower and it would be interesting to see how far it can go from the current levels. There is a monster release lined up in the US today, as the nonfarm payrolls i.e. the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses will be released by the US Department of Labor. The market is expecting a reading below 250K in March 2015.

There was a critical resistance trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was taken out by the Euro buyers. The EURUSD pair also closed above the 200 hourly simple moving average, which might now act as a support to the pair in the short term. Currently, the pair is trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.0717 low to 1.0905 high, which is coinciding with the 100 hour MA. There is a chance that the pair might climb higher from the current levels and retest the recent high. Any more gains could take it towards the 1.0950 levels which is an important resistance.

If the EURUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then the broken trend line might be tested again which must hold if the pair has to continue trading higher.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the EURUSD pair as long as the pair is above the highlighted trend line.

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[team.ikofx]

Buying Dips Favoured In GBPUSD

The US dollar weakened recently against many major currencies, including the British pound. The main catalyst for the down move was the US nonfarm payrolls report, which came below the forecast. The GBPUSD pair traded higher and might continue to gain pace in the near term. The European market is again closed today due to Easter Monday holidays. We need to see how the US dollar trades in the near term, as there is a chance of correction, which can be considered as a buying opportunity. However, we cannot deny the fact that the US dollar might trade higher one more time if momentum shift fails.

There was a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was broken recently and pushed the pair towards the 1.4940 level where it found sellers. The pair is currently moving lower and might test the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4478 low to 1.4944 high. However, the most important support can be seen around the 50% fib retracement level, which is around the broken trend line. The pair is well placed above the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages, which is one more positive sign ahead. Let us see how the British pound buyers react if the pair moves lower from the current levels.

If the GBPUSD pair moves higher and gains pace one more time, then a retest of the last high of 1.4940 might act as a resistance and could stall the upside moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the GBPUSD pair as long as the pair is above the 100 MA.

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[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Looks Set For More Losses

The Australian dollar traded higher recently against the US dollar, but it looks like it failed to maintain the momentum. There were a couple of economic releases lined up in Australia, which pushed the AUDUSD pair lower in the near term. The AIG Performance of Services Index presenting business conditions in the Australian service sector was released by the Australian Industry Group. The outcome was a bit on the lower side when compared to the last reading, as it came in at 50.2 down from the last 51.7. The AUDUSD pair moved lower and breached an important support area to trim all of the recent gains.

There was a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which was acting as a support and was breached by the Aussie dollar sellers. The most important point is that the pair settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is a strong sell signal. We need to see whether the pair can correct higher or not. Initial hurdle in that situation would be around the 100 hour MA. The next one might be around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7694 high to 0.7576 low, which is also sitting around the broken trend line. The hourly RSI is also below the 50 level signalling more losses in AUDUSD.

If the AUDUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then a break below the recent low might take it towards 0.7550.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the AUDUSD pair as long as the pair is below the 50% fib level.

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[team.ikofx]

EURCAD Might Weaken Further

The Euro was hammered recently not only against the US dollar, but also against other currencies like the Canadian dollar. There was a major support formed for the EURCAD pair, which was breached to set the pair for more declines in the near term. The recent releases in the Euro zone were not that bad, but sellers managed to take the Euro lower. There is one important release lined up today, as the Euro zone retail sales report stating changes in sales of the Euro zone retail sector and represents the performance of the retail sector in the short term will be released by the Eurostat. The market is expecting a decline and if that happens the Euro might come under pressure.

There was a monster bullish trend line formed on the 4-hour chart of the EURCAD pair, which was breached by the Euro sellers recently as the pair then tested the 1.3500 support area. The pair is currently making an attempt to correct higher, but faces several resistances on the way up. Initial one is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.3750 high to 1.3509 low. However, the most important one is around the 38.2% fib level, which is now coinciding with the broken trend line. The 4H RSI is also below the 50 mark, which is a bearish sign in the near term.

If the EURCAD pair moves lower from the current levels, then a break below the recent low of 1.3509 might call for more losses moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURCAD pair as long as it is below the 38.2% fib level.

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[team.ikofx]

NZDUSD Following A Downward Slope

The New Zealand dollar managed to trade higher to test 0.7600 recently against the US dollar. However, it found resistance around the mentioned area and moved lower. Currently, the pair is testing an important support around the 0.7520 levels, which if breached might open the doors for more losses in the near term. Today, in the US, the Initial Jobless Claims, which is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance will be released by the US Department of Labor. The market is expecting an increase in the US jobless claims this time. So, any better data could help the US dollar in the short term.

There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which is acting as a barrier for the pair. The pair recently managed to settle below the 100 hour simple moving average, which was an important bearish sign in the short term. However, there was one more side, as the pair found support around the 200 hour MA, and currently correcting higher. Let us see how sellers react around the highlighted trend line, as there is a chance of a failure moving ahead. A break below the 200 hour MA might be considered as a sell signal, which could take the NZDUSD pair towards the 0.7500 levels.

If the NZDUSD pair breaks higher and moves above the stated trend line, then it could head towards the 0.7580 level.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the NZDUSD pair as long as it is below the 100 hour MA.

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[team.ikofx]

No Hope for EURUSD As Sellers Remain In Control

The Euro failed once again to trade higher against the US dollar and after a minor correction moved back lower. There was a sharp reaction noted recently around the 1.0880 levels where sellers stepped in to ignite a downside reaction in the EURUSD pair. The economic releases also played a part, and today in the Euro zone there is no major release. One low risk event lined up is the French Industrial Output representing the volume of production of French industries such as factories and manufacturing will be released by INSEE. The market is expecting a decline this time compared to the increase of last time.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which is likely to act as a hurdle for the pair if it moves higher in the near term. Currently, the pair is finding buyers around the 1.0640 levels, and correcting higher. Initial resistance is around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0880 high to 1.0640 low. The most important one is around the highlighted trend line. One key point to note from the charts is that the pair is trading well below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages, which is a bearish sign. Moreover, the hourly RSI is also below the 50 level.

If the EURUSD continues to move lower from the current levels, then a break below the recent low could take it towards the 1.0600 levels.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURUSD pair as long as it is below the highlighted trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

Can GBPUSD Break Higher?

The British pound traded lower this past week against the US dollar, but it was later seen finding bids around the 1.4600 area. It looks like stabilizing around the mentioned area and might gain bids in the short term. There is hardly any major release lined up in the UK and the US today, which means there could be ranging moves during the next couple sessions. Shortly, the Chinese Trade Balance, which is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services will be released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China. It might cause some moves in the FX market in the near term.

There was a major bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was taken out by buyers during the Asian session. Currently, the pair is testing the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.4844 high to 1.4588 low. A break above the same might open the doors for more upsides in the short term. Initial resistance cane be seen around the 38.2% fib level, followed by the 50% fib level. There are a few bearish signs to note from the charts, including the fact that the GBPUSD pair is below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages. And, the hourly RSI is also below the 50 level.

If the GBPUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then a retest of the 1.4600 support area is possible moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the GBPUSD pair as long as it is above the 1.4600 support area.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Heading Towards Pivot Area

The Australian dollar fell sharply recently against the US dollar, and one of the main reasons for the same was the sifter than expected Chinese trade balance report. However, the AUDUSD pair managed to find buyers around the 0.7550 levels, and currently making an attempt to correct higher. We need to see how long the pair can stay on the top and hold the downside. There was a release lined up in Australia, as the NAB´s Business Conditions pointing at trading, profitability and employment conditions in Australia was released by the National Australia Bank. It registered an increase from the last reading of 2 to 6 in March 2015.

There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which might act as a pivot area for the pair. If the pair heads higher, then it might test the highlighted trend line. There is a critical point to note i.e. the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7694 high to 0.7550 low is also around the same trend line. So, one could say that the 0.7625 level is a major barrier for the AUDUSD pair. Moreover, the 200 hourly simple moving average is also above the trend line waiting to act as a hurdle for the pair. So, the chances of AUDUSD moving lower are more compared to a break higher.

If the AUDUSD pair moves lower from the current levels, then initial support is around 0.7580, followed by the last low of 0.7550.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the AUDUSD pair as long as it is below the highlighted trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

EURAUD Might Present a Buying Opportunity

The Euro surged higher against the Aussie dollar as the latter one got weakened recently. The EURAUD pair climbed higher, but found resistance around an important area. It is currently correcting lower and might present a buying opportunity in the near term. There was a release lined up in Australian during the Asian session, as the Westpac Consumer Confidence pointing the level of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their family finances over the past and coming year was released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute. It registered a decline from the last reading of 99.5 to 96.2.

There is a major resistance trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURAUD pair, which acted as a hurdle recently and caused a downside reaction. The pair is currently moving lower, but could find support around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.3837 low to 1.4018 high. However, there is no doubt that the highlighted trend line is a major barrier for the pair and might continue to stall the upside in the EURAUD pair. If it manages to settle above the same, then it might head towards the 1.4050 level. Any further gains might be limited as there is hardly any reason for the Euro to gain a lot in the near term.

If the EURAUD pair moves lower from the current levels, then 100 simple moving average might also come into play and help buyers.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURAUD pair as long as it is below the highlighted trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

Buy Dips In $NZDUSD

The New Zealand dollar performed well against the US dollar recently and broke an important resistance area to trade higher. There was a lot of buying interest seen in the NZDUSD pair, which helped the pair in the near term. There was an important event lined up in Australia as the Employment Change, which is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The outcome was above the expectation, as the employment change came in at 37.7K, more than the market forecasted for March 2015. This helped the Aussie and New Zealand dollar both.

There was a critical bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which was broken earlier during the Asian session to open the doors for more gains in the near term. The upside was stalled around the 0.7626 level, which opens the chance of a minor correction in the short term. The broken trend line might act as a support for the pair, which is now coinciding with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7488 low to 0.7626 high. So, in short the 0.7570 level is a major support area for the NZDUSD pair and might be considered as a buy zone moving ahead. The hourly RSI is around overbought levels pointing a correction in the short term.

If the NZDUSD pair moves higher, then a break above 0.7625 might take it towards 0.7650.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the NZDUSD pair as long as it is above the broken trend line.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker