IDCC - to buy or not to buy - Nov. 1 Q3 release

gsb2006

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Hi,

I am new to the forum (and to trading) and have this question:

IDCC (Interdigital Communications) has some great numbers (per my analysis with Investools - or "IT") and is one of the top performing stocks (according to technical analysis) in the top performing industry (Technology/Communications Equipment or .TCE) -- per IT.

It's been on a short uptrend since the middle of July and currently sells for $35.76 (US).

Now, tomorrow is Q3 release and it seems it has had some nice rallies on Q release date (this year).

It's shown 2 big jumps on the first two Earnings releases (from $18 to $24 at the end of January 06 and from $22 to $29 at the end of April), but it has shown a steep downturn on Q2 announcement at the beginning of July (from $36 to $25). Then it slowly went back up again (over 4 months) to $36.

Over the last 4 years it's seen the following changes (on Q3 announcement):

in 2005 there was a minor change (bet. $17 and $20).

in 2004 it jumped from $16 to $22

in 2003 it moved from $16 to $20 (declining sharply from $25 to $25 on Q2 Earnings)

in 2002 it jumped from $8 to $20 (again on Q3 announcement).

With these trends, do you think it will jump high tomorrow or it will sink down?

What would be the or a strategy to use to take advantage of either move? Will that be a spread?

A Nov. $35 call is going for $2.15 while a Nov. $35 put is selling at $1.30.

Will buying both be a good play?

I'll need to move about 3.5 points in either direction to make it a profitable trade, correct?

By the way, do you know of any new services that discusses predictions on upcoming Earnings release announcements? (I check bloomberg, prnewswire, wsj, ml, and investors daily but have not seen them discuss predictions -- I've seen the after the fact press releases only.)

In any case, thanks for your input.

Best,

GSB
 
Here's more on IDCC:

"IDCC: Volume Spike; 86% > 20-adsv, Stock -0.64%
10/31/2006 15:10
This is the 1st VOLUME alert for IDCC in the past 7 calendar days.

Trading for Interdigital Communications Corp (NASDAQ NM: IDCC) has been heavier than usual in today's session. By 17:10 ET, the stock had already traded 1,334,600 shares via 1,664 trades. The cumulative volume is 86.47% above its 20-day average of 715,710. Normally the stock experiences around 959 individual trades per session.

So far, today's volume surge has caused a net decline in IDCC's stock price. At the time of this alert, the stock was trading at $35.760, down $-0.230 (-0.64%).

Eleven months ago, the Company's shares closed at $18.890. The price has gained more than 89 percent since then.

Over the last 10 trading session IDCC has traded in a range between $34.800 and $36.910 and is currently trading 3.12% below its 52-week high of $36.910 set on October 27,2006 and 107.30% above its 52-week low of $17.250 from December 20,2005.

In the previous 3 sessions, IDCC trading has displayed a mixed trend. Closing results have been as follows:

October 30, 2006 --- closed at $35.990 down $0.300 (-0.83%) on 636,000 shares
October 27, 2006 --- closed at $36.290 down $0.580 (-1.57%) on 734,700 shares
October 26, 2006 --- closed at $36.870 up $0.900 (+2.50%) on 952,900 shares

The Company last released news on October 31, 2006 (today):

"InterDigital to Vigorously Oppose Samsung's Attempts to Vacate Arbitration Award"

INTERDIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS CORP
InterDigital Communications Corporation specializes in the architecture, design and delivery of wireless technology and product platforms. The Company develops advanced wireless technologies and products that facilitate voice and data communications. In conjunction with its technology development, the Company has assembled an extensive body of technical know-how, related product embodiments and a broad patent portfolio of Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) and Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) patents, which its licenses worldwide. The Company markets technologies and solutions primarily to wireless communications equipment producers and related suppliers. These solutions are embedded into products targeted for the following wireless telecommunications applications: mobile phones, personal digital assistants, mobile computing devices, other terminal-end wireless devices, base stations, and other infrastructure equipment."

© 2006 Knobias (Source)
 
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